Business
U.S. Economic Growth Will Slow in 2019, But Will Not Stop; Predictions For a Recession This Year Have ‘Little Basis in Reality’, Says New Forecast
March 14, 2019—LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA—Following solid growth in 2018, public sentiment about the U.S. economy has turned remarkably – and unnecessarily – grim, according to a new forecast released today by Beacon Economics. Driving the pessimism could be anything from the recent stock market slump to slowing home sales to the fear of an expanding trade war, but according to the new forecast, nothing on near-term horizon has the capacity to cause a downturn, much less a recession.
“Growth in the U.S. economy will certainly slow this year from 2018 levels,” Christopher Thornberg Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “But this is because the sugar rush and short-term stimulative boost created by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is wearing off – as expected.” Thornberg notes that while there have been weaker-than-normal numbers in some economic data, they are in line with the normal ebb and flow of growth. Moreover, fundamental indicators of economic health such as the consumer savings rate, wage growth, and debt levels all look good.
The new forecast has U.S. economic growth falling to the low 2% range this year from 2.9% in 2018, and expects labor markets to continue adding jobs, although at a slower rate. “The current economic expansion has been historic and it will come to an end, but that end has to be driven by a large, rapid, and negative shock to the economy – we simply don’t see any imbalance right now that has the capacity to knock economic growth off its rails this year.”
One of the main sources of the current angst revolves around the flattening of the U.S. housing market. While the new forecast acknowledges a slowdown, it argues that housing has shifted to neutral but has not moved towards anything resembling a decline. Home prices, in particular, are still rising. According to the forecast, as 2019 progresses, housing market activity will likely pick up.
At the state level, California’s economy is increasingly hampered by the state’s housing shortage and a greater sense of urgency has developed around the issue as reflected by more aggressive action from Governor Gavin Newsom and the State Legislature. Still, current housing market conditions are in flux. “Because of a spike in mortgage rates in late 2018, home sales got off to a slow start this year,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Beacon Economics’ Executive Director of Research and one of the forecast authors “Rates have retreated since then. Assuming they hold steady in the next few months, the peak season of 2019 could be better than many expect.”
Longer term, however, Kleinhenz says the chronic lack of home supply, and the high housing costs that deficit contributes to, is only growing in magnitude. “California needs to build far more homes than it has been building and the state’s economic future will be tied to our ability to do that,” said Kleinhenz. “But this is a stubborn, complicated problem and it’s taken a long time to get to where we are – it won’t be solved overnight.” Part of the complexity, he notes, lies in the fact that efforts at the state level to increase housing venture into land use policymaking, which has historically been the purview of local jurisdictions, making it challenging to craft a comprehensive solution.
Overall, the new forecast has California’s economy on a steady growth track for the first part of 2019. The unemployment rate in the state as a whole, and in many of its metro regions, continues to be at or near record lows, and job gains persist across nearly all of California’s industries.
View the full forecast report, Beaconomics, for additional insights.
Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. This analysis was authored by Christopher Thornberg and Robert Kleinhenz. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com.
Business
Sweet Success: The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce Teams with The Freaky Cookie to Elevate Local WBENC-Certified Business
How The Freaky Cookie Grew with Chamber Support: A WBENC Success Story in the Inland Empire
At the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce (IERCC), we pride ourselves on championing business growth and recognizing the powerful stories of our members. One standout example is Sheila Cavalier, founder of The Freaky Cookie—a fun and rebellious cookie catering company she launched in 2018 alongside her son, Marcus.

What began as a direct-to-consumer venture has grown into a business-to-business powerhouse, fueled by innovation, strategy, and strong community ties. The Freaky Cookie specializes in custom-labeled, individually wrapped cookies for corporate gifts, bulk orders, and special events. Their nostalgic family recipe, dating back over 90 years, delivers both flavor and flair. As Cavalier puts it, “There’s never not a need for a large amount of cookies.”
Recognizing a unique market opportunity during the pandemic, Sheila pivoted the business model to focus on custom-branded cookies—meeting the surge in demand for individually packaged baked goods that also serve as creative marketing tools. “Corporations were tired of traditional marketing,” she recalls. “Our custom-labeled cookies became a fun, fresh alternative.”
In 2022, Sheila connected with IERCC President Edward Ornelas Jr. during the Multi-Chamber Mixer at Ontario International Airport. That meeting led to The Freaky Cookie joining IERCC, which soon opened doors to strategic partnerships and increased visibility. Through the chamber’s vast network and advocacy, Sheila has built relationships with organizations such as Bank of America, Fifth Third Bank, Top Golf, and Southwest Airlines, which featured The Freaky Cookie in their 50th Anniversary celebration at ONT.
“The IERCC has been a warm and welcoming space,” Cavalier said. “Having the chamber validate our business really means something. It’s helped us get our foot in the door with so many great companies.”
The impact has been tangible. With increased revenue and expanded operations, The Freaky Cookie is no longer just a clever name—it’s a growing force in regional commerce. As Sheila puts it, her goal now is simple but powerful: “Deliver smiles.”
Business
Fire Helmet Manufacturer Helps Disabled Community find Employment
Riverside’s Phenix Technology Leads with Inclusion, Empowering the Disabled Community Through Workforce Training and Employer Education
Written by Logan Rosselli, IEBJ Content Contributor
In the heart of Riverside, off of Chicago Avenue, a small, but mighty team has been quietly manufacturing life-saving equipment for firefighters across the world for over 50 years. Phenix Technology Inc. is an internationally recognized fire helmet manufacturer who builds their products from start to finish right here in the Inland Empire. For their great products, they’ve received numerous awards such as the Greater Riverside Chamber of Commerce’s 2025 Innovator of the Year, a 2016 “E” for Exports award from the U.S. Department of Commerce, a finalist position in the “Coolest Thing Made in California” competition and more. However, their most recent accolade doesn’t involve their products at all.
In 2024, Phenix founded the ground breaking “Opportunity for All” program to provide disabled community members with the opportunity to access career education, hands-on experience and employment opportunities through an 11 week training cohort. In this program, neurodivergent individuals wanting to find stable employment learn about standard hiring practices, writing a resume, effective interviewing and professional attire while getting on-the-job training with a partnered employer in the community. It has helped dozens of disabled community members to find a new sense of independence and achieve their full potential while helping local employers find dependable employees who bring a unique perspective to the workplace.
It’s for this program that the National Association of Workforce Development Boards (NAWB), a representative of over 570 workforce development boards across the United States, honored Phenix with the prestigious W.O. Lawton Business Leadership Award in late March.
“While we take tremendous pride in the products we make, we also believe we have a mission to create a better world through developing opportunities,” said Angel Sanchez, CEO of Phenix Technology in a statement released in early April. “Opportunity for All has helped prove that individuals who have historically been excluded from the workforce don’t just contribute — they elevate organizations. We are honored to receive this national award and grateful to the partners who have helped us make this vision a reality.”

CEO Angel Sanchez Jr. accepts the NAWB Award
Though “Opportunity for All” is certainly the cornerstone program for the company, Phenix’s leadership team was not satisfied to leave their mission there. Thus, in 2024, the company founded its nonprofit arm, Phenix Gateway to offer more programs and advocacy to the community. Through Phenix Gateway, the company offers workforce development workshops for individuals who don’t need the full scale of the “Opportunity for All” program, but want to improve a specific skill like resume writing or workplace social skills.
However, Phenix knows that preparing disabled people for the workforce is only one end of the equation; the workforce also has to be prepared to accept the unique skills, perspectives and challenges of the disabled community. For this reason, Phenix Gateway offers employer training workshops as well as educational materials available to businesses and the community. Training programs cover a lot of ground, ranging from assistance with optimizing interviews for people with neurodevelopmental disorders to creating sensory-friendly environments in the workplace.
In Riverside, these programs have had a huge impact on the local community. As of March 2025, Phenix’s Opportunity for All program has had over two dozen participants and 44% found stable employment through or after the program. Their one-off workforce development workshops have seen over 200 participants learn new skills and help them find employment and the nonprofit currently partners with close to 90 businesses to assist them in their endeavor to create a more inclusive workforce.

Phenix Gateway staff helps a program participant with his skills
For businesses or community members interested in learning how they can support or participate in these programs, Phenix encourages them to reach out by email to info@phenixgateway.org and to attend their First Annual Gala: Rising Together, A Phenix Gateway Celebration, on Thursday, May 15th. Tickets for this event are available at phenixgateway.org.
Business
Supported by Local Leaders, CALED’s Annual Conference will be in Ontario this May
Empowering Economic Growth: CALED Conference Set to Unite Industry Leaders in Ontario
CALED’s ‘Growing Local Economies from the Ground Up’ Conference is being held in Ontario at the DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Ontario Airport on May 7-9. This event is co-hosted by the City of Ontario and San Bernardino County, with Jennifer McLain Hiramoto, CALED’s Chair of the Board and Derek Armstrong respectively representing their city and county as Co-Chairs of the event.
With over 950 members and 45 years of empowering economic developers, CALED is the largest economic development association in the country and the annual conference is the number one place to meet and connect with the boots-on-the -ground, decision makers in our communities.
The conference will include a pre-conference teaching tour, ‘Building & Paying for Development Projects’ on May 6th and then begin in full on May 7th, with a welcome session and breakouts. Overall, there will be four general assembly sessions and 18 breakout sessions, which will delve into local economic development practices and innovative tools.
In addition to compelling content, the conference will have numerous opportunities to connect with community leaders and valued peers through networking receptions, the culinary crawl, and new this year, the Tournament of Champions, where conference attendees will navigate a gauntlet of games to win the grand prize on the evening of Thursday, May 8th.
To learn more about the conference and register, visit the CALED website at www.caled.org.
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