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Q3-2023 SCAG Economic Roundtable Update

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Southern California Association of Governments Release Third Quarter Economic Update

Third Quarter, 2023

SCAG’s Economic Roundtable met for its quarterly discussion on the current state of the regional economy last week. Labor market conditions were a major focus of the conversation and several overarching themes emerged:

  • Although a recession had been considered likely for the third quarter this year, the Roundtable was generally optimistic that a recession will be averted or will be mild, especially in California.
  • The region’s economic resiliency is driven by strong labor markets.  However, the region is facing a number of labor disputes in regionally significant industries.
  • Commercial real estate is a weak spot in the region’s economy and housing continues to be soft, largely due to high interest rates and low supply.
  • Federal spending through the Inflation Reduction Act is ramping up and presents significant opportunities and multiplier effects for the region, especially surrounding green technology.  Lithium mining is an emerging opportunity in Imperial County with commercial grade production possible by 2025.

Labor Market

  • The SCAG region’s unemployment rate is at pre-pandemic levels at 4.5 percent (4.8 percent seasonally adjusted). All six counties are experiencing low unemployment rates. The lowest is in Orange County at 3.2 percent (3.6 percent seasonally adjusted). While Imperial County has the highest rate at 16 percent (17.6 percent seasonally adjusted), this is far lower than historical levels in Imperial County. Continuing unemployment claims dropped in the last quarter, indicating that laid-off workers are finding alternative jobs quickly.
  • The region’s labor supply is at 9.2 million, about 3.8 percent below the pre-pandemic high of February 2020. In the Inland Empire counties, labor supply slightly exceeds the February 2020 pre-pandemic levels. The Inland Empire counties also lead the state in employment gains since the pandemic; however, total employment is slightly below the post-COVID highs set in Fall 2022.
  • There have been labor disputes in regionally significant sectors, including logistics, entertainment and hospitality. Disputes are largely driven by concerns over working conditions, wage levels not keeping up with inflation or corporate profits – and in the case of the entertainment industry, artificial intelligence (AI).
  • The tight labor market is a cause of many current economic anomalies; it is expected to take some time for the effects of inflation and interest rate hikes to work itself through various parts of the economy.

Real Estate Market

  • Sales of existing homes are still down significantly due to prices and rates both being higher for those looking to “step up;” however, sales are ’starting to increase. Despite supply constraints, new development is still rising in much of the region — and homebuilders’ stock prices are especially strong in reflecting optimism.
  • Commercial real estate is the worst performing large sector, driven down by marquee loan defaults in large metropolitan areas and generally high office vacancy rates.  However, banks don’t want to take properties back and have an incentive to work things out with building owners to prevent accelerating vacancies or defaults.

Broader Economy

  • As of July, economic news as a whole is better than it has been all calendar year. Stock market indices are up and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan’s index is the highest in two years.
  • While many Economists predicted a third quarter recession, nothing suggests it is actually starting or about to come soon. Confidence is helpful in avoiding the self-fulfilling prophecy, which can trigger a downturn. In retrospect, the uniformity of COVID-era support payments in allowing for spending despite uncertainty may have been a major factor.
  • Major risks may be on the horizon in commercial lending.  Nationally, corporate bankruptcies are at the highest levels since 2010, up 68 percent relative to the first six months of 2022. This is impacting some sectors more quickly, particularly the region’s large hospitality sector.  The reason appears to be that businesses are paying far higher rates for new commercial loans, which may lead to some difficult choices for small businesses—and lenders.
  • Taxable sales are down as consumers continue to shift consumption from goods to services.  While personal spending is positive nationwide, this may be a challenge for local government coffers.
  • The region’s year-over-year core inflation rate is 1.3 percent lower than a quarter ago; however, this is largely the result of a 15 percent drop in energy (mainly gasoline) prices. This drop opens the possibility of only one (rather than two) remaining interest hike from the Federal Reserve in the rest of 2023, which would be a positive signal.

SCAG’s Economic Roundtable is a consortium of regional economic experts that meet quarterly to update the region’s economic outlook and discuss challenges and opportunities facing the six counties that comprise SCAG.

Members are:

  • Imperial County, Michael Bracken, Development Management Group, Inc. (DMG)
  • Los Angeles County, Shannon Sedgwick, Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC)
  • Orange County, Wallace Walrod, Tech Coast Consulting Group (TCCG) and Orange County Business Council (OCBC)
  • Riverside & San Bernardino Counties, Manfred Keil, Inland Empire Economic Partnership (IEEP) and Claremont McKenna College
  • Ventura County and the SCAG Region, Mark Schniepp, California Economic Forecast (CEF)
  • Equity, Karthick Ramakrishnan, University of California, Riverside (UCR) and California 100
  • Sustainability, David Roland-Holst, Berkeley Economic Advising & Research (BEAR) and University of California, Berkeley
  • Workforce Development, Shaun Fernando, Guidehouse Consulting

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Local Veteran and His Family Open New Graze Craze Charcuterie Business in Murrieta, California

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Southern California wine country gets another stylish culinary option, offering beautifully designed, hand-crafted grazing boards and picnic boxes

Graze Craze® has opened a new location close to the wine country of Southern California, where its artfully arranged sweet and savory grazing boards and boxes create a perfect pairing for food lovers. Located at 24530 Village Walk Place, Suite C, in Village Walk Plaza, the 1,021-square-foot store is owned and operated by disabled veteran Chris Stout and his wife, Stephanie Stout, with assistance from their teenage children.

At Graze Craze, highly trained experts known as Grazologists™ skillfully design charcuterie arrangements that feature an assortment of fine ingredients perfect for grazing, like fresh fruits and vegetables, premium meats and cheeses, artisanal sweets, nuts, house-made jams and more.

Chris Stout enlisted in the U.S. Navy in 2001 and served several deployments before being discharged in 2012. Since then, he has worked as a field service engineer for an electronics company and in manufacturing sales. Stephanie Stout has a bachelor’s degree in business accounting from the University of Phoenix and worked for an insurance broker before the couple’s first child was born; she then devoted herself full-time to raising their three children, who are now in high school.

Graze Craze charcuterie boards offer something for every lifestyle, dietary preference or palate and are available in a variety of size options to cater to any occasion, big or small. They incorporate a medley of flavors, like the fan-favorite Gone Grazey board, a perfectly balanced mix of cured meats, premium cheeses, crackers, fresh produce, nuts and more. The Vegegrazian is impeccably designed with a plethora of fresh fruits and vegetables for anyone embracing a plant-based lifestyle. Those with an undeniable sweet tooth can enjoy the Sweet & Grazey, a hand-crafted board featuring an abundance of delectable desserts like chocolates and baked goods paired with sweet dips to accent the irresistible flavors.

New to the Graze Craze menu is the Brunch Board, a gourmet and innovative twist on any morning routine. Packed with breakfast meats, fresh fruits, eggs, pastries and more, this board is the perfect bagel-and-donut brunch alternative. Grazers can also tackle watch-party cravings with a seasonal Game Day Board, featuring a feast of

crowd-pleasing ingredients, like peppered salami, Italian prosciutto, goat cheese, cranberry walnut bread, raspberry jam and chocolate bark, to name a few.

The artisan-inspired charcuterie offerings at Graze Craze are available in different size options, from Char-Cutie-Cups and Picnic Boxes for nibbling to sharing-size boards with enough fresh food to feed a large party. The food displays are ideal for elevating work meetings, family gatherings, lavish events and more, while they also make for memorable gifts that impress.

Besides sharing the flavorful menu with the area, the Stouts are actively involved in numerous local school, business and community organizations. The pair supports the Murrieta Valley High School Marching Band Boosters and California High School Rodeo Association District 8, in addition to the Boy Scouts of America California Inland Empire Council and Friends of Temecula Troop 309, where Christopher Stout is a part of the adult leadership team. The couple has also worked with Homes For Our Troops, an impactful nonprofit organization that builds specially adapted homes for post-9/11 disabled veterans.

Graze Craze Murrieta is open for pick-up, catering and free local delivery Monday through Saturday from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. and Sunday from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. For more information, call 951-942-7293.

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Partners in Action: How CalOSBA is bridging the gap in funding and resources for Inland Empire small businesses

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By Josaline Cuesta, California Program Director, Small Business Majority & IEBJ Content Contributor

For Tara Lynn Gray, Director of the California Office of the Small Business Advocate (CalOSBA), entrepreneurship has always been a core principle of her life. Her journey as an advocate for small businesses wasn’t built on textbooks, but on her family’s roots in small business ownership. As a young girl, she watched her grandmother empower and elevate Black women’s presences by styling their hair and instilling confidence in their personhood. She witnessed the direct impact of small businesses on community members in real time, and that’s always stayed with Tara.

As a key partner of Small Business Majority, she stands as a champion for the dreamers and risk-takers; the pillars of the communities across California and in the Inland Empire. I chatted with her to share more about her work at CalOSBA, what entrepreneurs can expect when they meet with a CalOSBA advisor, and the resources and community support available to help boost entrepreneurship in the Golden State.

Tell us about CalOSBA’s role in the small business community.

“California has the biggest small business community in the country, accounting for 4.1 million small businesses in 2023 alone. The overwhelming majority have no employees at all, except themselves, which means they don’t have a Board of Directors, expensive consultants, and they definitely don’t have lobbyists. I take my role as their advocate seriously, talking with and listening to small business owners from up and down the state. During the pandemic, we were under a very bright spotlight, administering nearly $5 billion in direct relief funding and we’re proud of the grant programs we still oversee. But that’s only a small part of what we do at CalOSBA.

My team connects small business owners to information and resources to help them get started, manage their business and, most importantly, to grow. If they’re looking for help, we want to be the first door they knock on. In addition, we offer Outsmart Disaster training, which focuses on how to mitigate risks associated with natural disasters and recovery avenues available to them. I always say the flagship of our office is our support for the statewide network of Small Business Centers, providing 1:1 business assistance and training for small business owners of all industries and in dozens of languages. In addition, supporting partners that deliver these services–all the federally funded centers like the Small Business Development Centers and the Women’s Business Centers but also Chambers of Commerce and other nonprofits—is a core function of my office. And a big source of pride because we know what a difference they make for their clients.”

What can small business owners expect from meeting with a California Small Business Center advisor?

“Small business owners can expect to meet someone who is fully invested in them. Our Centers cover the full spectrum of business needs, from writing a business plan and obtaining the right permits and licenses, to finding capital, planning a succession strategy and marketing to e-commerce. Our business advisors provide the experience and the objective perspective to help business owners optimize their best assets: ideas, energy, and ability to keep adapting and learning. And they do it because they love helping other people succeed. What’s more, business ownership can become isolating and it may be challenging for entrepreneurs to find assistance. But they don’t have to go at it alone–and they shouldn’t, when these no-cost and low-cost services are available to them.”

What’s the most rewarding part of your role at CalOSBA?

“I always say I have the best job in the state. And it’s because I frequently have the honor to watch someone’s dream come true. I love a ribbon-cutting ceremony–Every time, big or small. It means someone dreamed of accomplishing something and worked hard for it: They opened the doors to their business, they made a sale, and hopefully they will hire their first employee and then it’s off to the races. But no matter what happens to that business, that ribbon-cutting is a milestone they made happen for themselves. There are many other events I get invited to, where you can just see the hope and pride, and even fear in their faces. I’m often overwhelmed by the sheer emotion of it, and I’m always humbled that I get to participate in that person’s big milestone.”

What are some new programs that can benefit small business owners in the Inland Empire?

“The number one question my office gets asked is how to access small business financing. To help address this key need, we’re launching the Technical Assistance for Capital Readiness program this February. The program is part of a bigger effort to fill well-known funding gaps in the state to benefit very small businesses and Socially and Economically Disadvantaged Individuals (SEDI). Through investments from the U.S. Treasury, the State Treasurer’s Office and IBank, the program is going to support lenders to facilitate “high risk” loans that they normally would not approve.

In addition to supporting lenders, my office also received $25.3 million in U.S. Treasury funding to start the new Capital Readiness network. The Capital Readiness Coaches in this network will help business owners get ready for the lending marketplace, help them make the best choices in a high interest-rate environment, and optimize the use of the capital once they receive it. The network is also designed to help spread the word about this opportunity to these SEDI-owned businesses, and some of those partners will be focused on supporting the Inland Empire small business ecosystem.”

How can business owners get in touch with CalOSBA?

“That’s simple! Check out calosba.ca.gov and sign up for our monthly newsletter, where I write a column and showcase success stories from our network, along with deadlines and updates on grant and workforce support programs. We’re also on social media, so I would encourage business owners to check out all of our channels.”

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2024 Banking & Financial Industry Outlook: Where Knowledge Meets Opportunity in California’s Financial Landscape

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In an age where financial trends rapidly evolve and economic landscapes shift with increasing unpredictability, the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce stands as a beacon of knowledge and opportunity. It proudly announces its sold-out annual event, the Financial Industry Update, an exclusive gathering tailor-made for California and the Inland Empire region. This prestigious event is set to unfold on January 18, 2024, at the Ontario International Airport Authority Conference Center, promising an enriching experience for attendees.

A Gathering of Minds in the Financial Sphere

The Financial Industry Update is more than just an event; it’s a crucial nexus for professionals, businesses, and community leaders keen on gaining a deeper understanding of the financial nuances specific to California and the Inland Empire. This year’s event is particularly significant, given the rapid changes and challenges facing the financial sector in the region.

Keynote Speaker: A Treasury of Knowledge

Leading the charge is none other than California State Treasurer Fiona Ma, a figure renowned for her acumen in public finance, economic development, and responsible fiscal management. Her role as the keynote speaker underscores the event’s stature, offering invaluable insights into the financial future of California and the Inland Empire.

Featured Speakers: A Diverse Spectrum of Expertise

Joining Treasurer Ma is a lineup of distinguished speakers, each bringing unique perspectives and expertise:

  • Ivo Tjan: As the Chairman, President, and CEO of CommerceWest Bank, Tjan’s journey from founding the company to leading it through an IPO is nothing short of inspirational. His leadership and insights are eagerly anticipated.
  • Hilda Kennedy: The Founder/President of AmPac CDC and a trailblazer in local government and economic development, Kennedy’s impact on small businesses and community financing is profound.
  • Edward Ornelas, Jr.: The visionary force behind the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, Ornelas’s innovative approaches to business and economic development have redefined the region’s business narrative.

Event Highlights: More Than Just Talks

The event promises more than just insightful presentations. It’s a unique opportunity for networking, where professionals can connect, collaborate, and engage with potential partners and influential community figures. The interactive Q&A sessions will allow attendees to delve deeper into subjects, clarifying doubts and gaining more profound knowledge.

A Confluence of Opportunity and Expertise

This event symbolizes the intersection of knowledge and opportunity in California’s dynamic financial landscape. It’s a platform where insights are shared, connections are made, and the future of the financial industry in the Inland Empire is contemplated and shaped.

As January 18 approaches, the anticipation among California’s financial community continues to build. This event is not just a meeting of minds; it’s a forge where the future of financial industry trends and strategies will be hammered out, shaping the economic future of the Inland Empire and beyond.

For more information about the event and the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, visit www.iechamber.org

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