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Vaccination Ramp-Up will Herald Exceptional Economic Growth in 2021-2022, Says Leading Forecast; Relief in Sight for Hardest Hit Sectors

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Craving ‘Normal Activity’, Consumers Will Drive Growth; Trouble On The Horizon: The Cost Of Excessive Monetary And Fiscal Stimulus

The economic recovery from the historic COVID-19 pandemic that began last year regained steam at the start of 2021, and record savings and hot financial markets indicate an even more accelerated upturn will play out across the rest of the year. According to Beacon Economics’ latest outlook for the U.S. and California, the pandemic exacted its heaviest and most persistent damage within job markets, but a quickened pace of vaccinations and the easing of health-mandated restrictions nationwide is setting the stage for a major hiring bounce.

At the start of the pandemic the U.S. saw its payroll workforce decline by approximately 22 million jobs as the unemployment rate soared to 14.8%. The damage was not evenly distributed with some 40% of the losses occurring in the Leisure and Hospitality sector alone. But as of March 2021, 62% of the lost jobs have been recovered and the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 6%. Moreover, the job openings rate is currently higher than it was pre-pandemic, and wages among workers who have kept their jobs have continued to grow at a normal pace.

“As good as this data is, we’re not there yet. But even the most damaged industries are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel while industries that were essentially unscathed are facing tight job markets and having trouble hiring people,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “Additionally, the depths to which badly affected labor markets sank have created conditions for exceptional growth as restrictions on activity – the only thing preventing hard-hit industries from expanding – recede.”

The new forecast estimates that the nation’s unemployment rate will shrink to 5.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and to 4.9% by the end of the year.

Driven by consumer demand, other parts of the U.S. economy have already rebounded sharply, even flourishing throughout the pandemic. “Frustrated consumers who were denied an opportunity to eat at a favorite restaurant or fly to Disney World, spent unused dollars in other areas of the economy such as buying houses, campers, and home goods,” said Thornberg. “This is why worker earnings have recovered, job openings have remained remarkably high, and there was a surge in corporate profits – to their highest point ever in the second half of last year.”

While U.S. GDP experienced its largest annual decline in decades in 2020, these losses will be offset and the economy will likely return to trend this year – driven primarily by consumers, according to the new outlook.

Like the nation, California’s pace of vaccination has ramped up and the easing of restrictions will accelerate the state’s labor market recovery (assuming health criteria is met, the state is scheduled to fully open on June 15). As of March, California had 8.6% fewer jobs compared to pre-pandemic levels, while the national economy had 5.5% fewer jobs. “The state finds itself in a deeper hole with respect to jobs lost than is the case nationally,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “But that relative underperformance will likely translate into higher job gains in 2021.”

The new outlook estimates that California’s unemployment rate will shrink to 7.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and to 4.4% by the end of the year.

Also like the nation, while the state’s job recovery lags, many aspects of California’s economy have returned to their pre-pandemic trends, and some, such as the housing market, boomed over the past year. Home prices in the state increased 15% from the 4th quarter of 2019 to the 4th quarter of 2020, compared to just 5% growth from the 4th quarter of 2018 to the 4th quarter of 2019. Moreover, a severe shortage of housing supply in California will continue to place upward pressure on home prices in the year ahead, said Osman.

Additional Key Findings:

  • In California, sales of single-family homes have also increased, jumping by 24% from the 4th quarter of 2019 to the 4th quarter of 2020. This rate of sales is unsustainable, however, as supply and inventory constraints will act as significant headwinds.
  • The economic fallout from labor market losses in both the U.S. and California disproportionally affected the lowest wage earners. An unprecedented policy response by the federal and state governments went some way towards dulling the pain.
  • This year, the Federal deficit will be on the order of $4 trillion. In two just two years, the United States has issued $7 trillion in new debt—an amount equal to 30% of the nation’s GDP, or $24,000 for every person in the United States under the age of 70. This threatens to be an overstimulation and could have seriously distorting economic consequences in the future.
  • U.S. commercial bank deposits mushroomed during the pandemic, increasing by $3 trillion in 2020 compared to 2019 levels.
  • Over the past year, the nation’s household savings rate shot up to levels never seen in U.S. history: 25% in the 2nd quarter of 2020 and a still high 13.4% by the end of last year. This was driven by the fiscal stimulus but also by the fact that spending dropped significantly.

View the newly designed The Beacon Outlook here.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

Business

Unisource Solutions Grows Its Inland Empire Presence with the Addition of TOTALPLAN Business Interiors

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Southern California’s leading workplace design and furnishings resource deepens its regional presence by uniting with a 57-year Inland Empire institution. 

Unisource Solutions, California’s Haworth Best in Class dealership and a comprehensive  workplace design resource, has announced the acquisition of TOTALPLAN a fixture of the  Inland Empire business community since 1969. The strategic partnership brings together  two organizations with a combined heritage of more than 80 years of expertise, unifying  their complementary strengths to better serve businesses, architects, and interior  designers across the Inland Empire. 

Founded in 1987, Unisource Solutions has built its reputation as far more than a furniture  dealer. The company operates as a full-service design resource — offering space planning, workplace strategy and analytics, installation services, project management, and custom furnishings through its in-house brand, Platform by Unisource Solutions. With access to more than 300 manufacturers, Unisource serves clients across corporate, healthcare, higher education, and financial sectors. 

TOTALPLAN has spent more than five decades cultivating trusted relationships with  businesses of all sizes throughout the Inland. Under the leadership of owner Denny  Fosdick, TOTALPLAN earned a reputation for quality service, community investment, and a deep understanding of the regional market. 

“For over 57 years, TOTALPLAN has been dedicated to providing exceptional workspace solutions throughout the Inland Empire and beyond. Now, we’re excited to join forces with Unisource Solutions. This partnership brings together our deep community roots with Unisource’s extensive resources and capabilities. I’m proud to pass the torch to a fellow Inland Empire resident who understands this community and will carry on the legacy we’ve built here.”  —Denny Fosdick, Owner, TOTALPLAN Business Interiors 

Jamal Nasserdeen, President of Unisource Solutions, who grew up in the Inland Empire,  expressed the personal significance of the acquisition and its implications for Unisource’s  long-term growth strategy in the region. 

“Growing up and living in the Inland Empire, it’s a true honor to build on the tremendous 57-year legacy that Denny and his team have established. This partnership marks a pivotal moment in our growth journey, significantly expanding our capabilities throughout the region and strengthening our position as Southern California’s premier workplace solutions provider. It’s a privilege to bring TOTALPLAN into the Unisource Solutions family.”  — Jamal Nasserdeen, President, Unisource Solutions 

The partnership also carries the endorsement of Haworth, the globally recognized  furniture manufacturer for which Unisource holds its Best-in-Class dealer designation.  Tom Peyton, Haworth’s Regional Vice President for the West Region, noted that the  partnership reinforces the strength of Unisource’s regional coverage and honors the  trusted relationships TOTALPLAN has spent decades building. 

The combined organization now brings a unified offering across workplace design, multi brand furniture sourcing, custom fabrication through Platform by Unisource Solutions,  and comprehensive facilities services including delivery, installation, reconfiguration, and relocation support. Clients across architecture, interior design, and corporate facilities teams will benefit from a single, deeply resourced partner capable of supporting  projects from initial concept through move-in. 

For businesses in the Inland Empire seeking to transform their workspaces, the new  partnership signals expanded local access to a nationally capable team, one that is deeply  invested in the communities it serves. 

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Business

Ontario Set to Open Newest Play Street Museum Location

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A children’s museum and indoor play area that lets imaginations wander open soon to local community 

Play Street Museum, an interactive children’s museum and indoor play area purposefully designed to encourage a young child’s sense of independence, exploration, and creativity, will be opening its newest franchise location in the coming weeks in Ontario, California. Locally owned by Teresa and Sergio Carreras, the coming location marks a key milestone in an expanding franchise program, with its first location in California. 

“We’re thrilled to bring the newest Play Street Museum to Ontario for our local community to enjoy,” shared Teresa and Sergio Carreras. “After visiting Play Street Museum with our grandchildren, we knew we had to bring a location to California, and we’re excited to share it with the community and hope it serves Inland Empire families in big ways.” 

“We’re proud empty nesters and even prouder grandparents of five wonderful grandchildren. Becoming grandparents has been one of the greatest joys of our lives. This season of life has given us the opportunity to slow down and truly savor the wonder of childhood again,” continued Carreras. “We look forward to welcoming local families, schools, and community groups to experience everything the new Play Street Museum has to offer.” 

Teresa and Sergio Carreras believe children learn best when they’re having fun and can touch, build, pretend, and explore. Every exhibit at Play Street Museum Ontario is designed to spark curiosity, creativity and confidence. Whether children are running a pretend grocery store, experimenting with simple science, creating art, or climbing into imaginative worlds, children are learning skills that will stay with them for a lifetime. “This space is not just for kids. It’s for grandparents who cherish story time in a cozy corner. For parents who light up watching their child try something new. For caregivers who treasure the laughter and togetherness of play,” shared Carreras. 

Play Street Museum offers an expansive, rotating curriculum at each location specifically designed for children under nine years of age. Everyday and every week is different at Play Street Museum, providing motivation and justification 

for a scheduled time in families’ busy calendars. Play Street Museum Ontario also offers one-of-a-kind birthday parties, complete with comprehensive themes and options for parents from “Do-It-Yourself” to “Sit Back & Relax”, in addition to special events and activities during evenings and weekends. 

In Scientific American’s article, “The Need for Pretend Play in Child Development”, Yale professor Dr. Scott Barry Kaufman summarized the last 75 years of research by declaring imaginative play as a “vital component to the normal development of a child.” By narrowing the focus of Play Street Museum and its indoor play areas to the interests and imaginations of children eight and under, young explorers discover educational exhibits and activities in a world specifically crafted just for them. The deliberate and manageable scale enables children to self-navigate throughout the children’s museum and indoor play area to engage deeply in activities about which they are most interested and passionate. This freedom reinforces independence in the child and also has the benefit of creating a more relaxed and accommodating museum experience for the caregiver. 

“Play Street Museum is thrilled to welcome and open the Ontario location soon with our incredible partners, Teresa and Sergio Carreras. As parents and grandparents, they understand the powerful impact of play and intentionally sought to bring its benefits to this part of the Ontario area. They’ve taken their passion for children, education, and play and applied it to building a dynamic, local business that will support the health and well-being of their own community,” commented Play Street Museum Founder and CEO, Courtney Muccio

Located at 910 North Haven Avenue, Suite 150, the new Ontario location makes the extensive, and well researched benefits of play easily accessible to the local community. The museum’s team of highly knowledgeable associates can provide guidance on additional opportunities to expand the play and learning, either on site or at home, from corresponding activity kits, to pottery, to slime kits, to sensory kits. Customers can also book their play time in advance in addition to schedule birthday parties or private events. 

Families and customers can visit 

https://www.ontario.playstreetmuseum.com/ to book playtime, birthday parties, field trips, and to check out special events. 

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Business

Sweet Success: The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce Teams with The Freaky Cookie to Elevate Local WBENC-Certified Business

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How The Freaky Cookie Grew with Chamber Support: A WBENC Success Story in the Inland Empire

At the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce (IERCC), we pride ourselves on championing business growth and recognizing the powerful stories of our members. One standout example is Sheila Cavalier, founder of The Freaky Cookie—a fun and rebellious cookie catering company she launched in 2018 alongside her son, Marcus.

What began as a direct-to-consumer venture has grown into a business-to-business powerhouse, fueled by innovation, strategy, and strong community ties. The Freaky Cookie specializes in custom-labeled, individually wrapped cookies for corporate gifts, bulk orders, and special events. Their nostalgic family recipe, dating back over 90 years, delivers both flavor and flair. As Cavalier puts it, “There’s never not a need for a large amount of cookies.”

Recognizing a unique market opportunity during the pandemic, Sheila pivoted the business model to focus on custom-branded cookies—meeting the surge in demand for individually packaged baked goods that also serve as creative marketing tools. “Corporations were tired of traditional marketing,” she recalls. “Our custom-labeled cookies became a fun, fresh alternative.”

In 2022, Sheila connected with IERCC President Edward Ornelas Jr. during the Multi-Chamber Mixer at Ontario International Airport. That meeting led to The Freaky Cookie joining IERCC, which soon opened doors to strategic partnerships and increased visibility. Through the chamber’s vast network and advocacy, Sheila has built relationships with organizations such as Bank of America, Fifth Third Bank, Top Golf, and Southwest Airlines, which featured The Freaky Cookie in their 50th Anniversary celebration at ONT.

“The IERCC has been a warm and welcoming space,” Cavalier said. “Having the chamber validate our business really means something. It’s helped us get our foot in the door with so many great companies.”

The impact has been tangible. With increased revenue and expanded operations, The Freaky Cookie is no longer just a clever name—it’s a growing force in regional commerce. As Sheila puts it, her goal now is simple but powerful: “Deliver smiles.”

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