Economy
Resurgent Virus Could Throw Burgeoning Economic Recovery Off Its Rails

Across U.S., California, and Inland Empire, Chance of A Rapid Bounce Dims
July 16, 2020 — The nascent economic recovery that had started to sprout across the nation as businesses reopened following COVID-19-mandated closures, has been thrown a major curveball as new cases of the virus have surged. According to an analysis released today by the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development, jobs, income, public revenue, and other indicators are likely to recover more slowly than the Center originally anticipated due to the resurgence of the virus in locations across the U.S., including Southern California and the Inland Empire.
“We always knew that controlling the virus was central to the economic recovery so it’s truly gut wrenching to watch a new wave of cases trigger this step back in the re-opening of businesses and other public places,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at the Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report’s authors. “Returning to normalcy in terms of employment, the supply chain, and consumer demand is directly tied to controlling the spread of the virus; it is a primary factor in determining the speed of the economic recovery.”
According to the analysis, the recovery that was somewhat underway in May, after huge losses in April, was occurring more slowly in California than in the nation as a whole. However, this is not due to any structural issue but may be attributed to other states opening more quickly than California and possibly that residents were more cautious here than in other locations. The Center for Forecasting does not expect California to regain all its lost jobs until the end of 2021.
Key Findings:
- U.S. Industry Fallout: Some sectors in the United States have been hit much harder than others. Despite the addition of 1.2 million jobs in May (the latest numbers available), the Leisure and Hospitality sector has lost 6.3 million jobs in the nation since March, accounting for roughly 37% of all jobs lost. Moreover, with the resurgence, the recent gains may be lost or significantly reduced.
- U.S. Stimulus Pressure: Disposable personal income fell 4.9% in May, but consumption increased 8.2%, driven by stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. The Federal stimulus measures expire at the end of July, however, and that will undoubtedly act as a headwind for the economy.
- CA “Temporary” Job Loss: About 75% of workers who have been laid off in California say they are temporarily unemployed, and the hope has been that most will return to their jobs as businesses reopen. However, the recent resurgence of the virus will most certainly slow that return.
- CA Public Sector Strain: The strain on public budgets from revenue losses will inevitably lead to job losses in the state’s Government sector.
- IE Outperforms: The response to the pandemic has taken a significant toll on employment in the Inland Empire (down -12% as of May), however the region has performed slightly better than Orange County (-15%), Los Angeles County (-13%), and the state as a whole (-13%). The Inland Empire labor market is not expected to fully recover until the second half of 2021.
- IE Logistics A Winner: The Logistics sector, a longtime driver of growth in the Inland Empire, is the only major sector to have expanded in the region on a year-over-year basis (3.6%, or 2,600 jobs) since stay-at-home orders began. The sector has benefited from a consumer shift to online spending.
The new Inland Empire Regional Intelligence Report examines how the United States, California, and the Inland Empire have been affected by the VOVID-19 pandemic, including how these regions will recover, the damage that has been caused, and the reaction by consumers and the public.
The full analysis is available here.
Business
Economist Christopher Thornberg, State Treasurer Fiona Ma Headline New Forecast Conference

Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Economy
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong
Bizz Buzz
Workforce Development Earns National Achievement Awards

#bizzbuzz
Inspired by the Board of Supervisors’ commitment to meet the needs of employers and jobseekers and foster a vibrant local economy, the San Bernardino County Workforce Development Department has been honored with eight 2023 Achievement Awards from the National Association of Counties (NACo).
Among the services and initiatives for which WDB was honored were the Rapid Response Community Resource Fair, Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program and, in partnership with the Public Defender’s office, the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs.
Thanks to strong and stable leadership and policy direction from Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe and her colleagues on the Board of Supervisors, San Bernardino County received a record-breaking 160 NACo awards this year. The awards reflect the Board’s efforts to cultivate the innovation that leads to the development of outstanding public service programs.
The NACo awards recognize the best of the best among county governments across the U.S. Nationwide, 40,000 county elected officials and 3.6 million county employees provide important services, such as caring for our physical and mental health, maintaining roads, ensuring public safety, strengthening environmental stewardship, administering elections and much more.
“The Workforce Development programs and services recognized by NACo highlight the extraordinary work being done by Workforce Development to enhance career opportunities for our residents and help businesses grow,” Rowe said.
The first Rapid Response Community Resource Fair was developed shortly after United Furniture Industries (UFI) abruptly laid off more 300 employees in the High Desert without advance notice just days before Thanksgiving 2022. When Workforce Development was alerted, staff quickly mobilized businesses and community partners to help connect those laid off to available employment opportunities, as well as various other community resources. Approximately 275 of the affected UFI employees were offered new employment opportunities as a result.
The Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program was a pilot program that tapped into the wide-reaching business network of chambers of commerce. This collaboration between WDB and various chambers of commerce throughout the county was designed to leverage the relationship between chambers and small businesses to build awareness and accessibility to Workforce Development services available to them. Outcomes as a result of this partnership include various successful services including job listings, job fairs, positions filled, and job training assistance, among others.
Perhaps the most impactful program receiving this recognition is the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs. Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s Office have partnered with businesses and community organizations to increase economic access and equity. The partnership was designed to bring critical resources directly into the community – to churches, community centers, community colleges, and America’s Job Centers – for those looking to remove barriers and increase their access to employment opportunities and other services. The Public Defender helps participants by providing expungement or record clearing services, and Workforce Development brings employers with job opportunities, all within the same location. The events have been well received and proven useful to the community, making this a long-term partnership, not only between Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s office but a long list of other community organizations that have also participated.
“Our team and board feel fortunate to be recognized for these awards,” said William Sterling, chairman of the Workforce Development Board. “The underlying factor of the programs being recognized are partnerships. We feel fortunate for our staff and the relationships developed with other departments and organizations and the impact these services have had within our communities, which is at the core of what public service is supposed to be.”
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