Economy
Pent Up Consumer Demand to Drive Rapid Economic Recovery in Inland Empire

Vaccine Rollout, Easing of Public Health Mandates Boosts Local Economic Outlook
After more than a year of pandemic-driven business closures and restrictions on activity, the fundamentals that drive long-term economic growth are alive and well in the Inland Empire, according to an analysis released by the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. The region’s labor market, where the pandemic’s greatest damage was unleashed, continues to steadily recover while other parts of the economy, such as the housing market and overall taxable sales, have expanded and even flourished.
As of the latest numbers, the Inland Empire’s labor market has added back 145,100 jobs since it hit bottom in April 2020. While it still has some distance to go to fully return to pre-pandemic levels (total nonfarm employment in the region currently sits -4.9% below its February 2020 peak), significant consumer demand should drive a rapid recovery, according to the analysis.
“Consumer demand has pent up over the past year and even industries that suffered the worst losses, such as Leisure and Hospitality, should experience significant job gains as companies ramp up to meet surging demand,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at the UCR Center for Forecasting. “This was a recession driven by the pandemic, not by anything fundamentally wrong or off-balance in the economy, so when the virus recedes, there is really nothing to hold back a quick recovery.”
Once businesses fully reopen and COVID-19 health concerns wane, the regional labor market should recover all the jobs it lost throughout the pandemic this year, or come close, according to the analysis.
Key Findings
- Industry Impacts: Like elsewhere, throughout the pandemic, the largest job losses in the Inland Empire have been concentrated in the Leisure and Hospitality sector where there are -44,600 fewer workers today compared to February 2020 (a -25.3% decline). Other significant job losses occurred in Government, Manufacturing, Other Services (a sector that includes hair and nail salons), Administrative Support, and Education/Health Care.
- Wage Growth: One unintuitive effect of the pandemic has been wage growth. From the 3rd quarter of 2019 to the 3rd quarter of 2020, wages in the Inland Empire jumped 5.7%. This trails the 6.7% pace of growth in California overall and, notably, some of it must be attributed to the loss of more low paying jobs during the pandemic.
- All Not Equal In Consumer Spending: Overall, taxable sales in the Inland Empire expanded by 5.5% from the 4th quarter of 2019 to the 4th quarter of 2020. But while consumers were spending throughout the crisis, their consumption was not evenly spread. Spending in E-commerce (County and State Pool) soared 46.5%, Building and Construction spending jumped 15.5%, and purchases as Food and Drug Stores rose 12.6%. On the other hand, Fuel and Service Station spending plummeted -25.4% and Restaurants and Hotels suffered a -16.4% drop.
- Hot Housing Market: The median single-family home price in the Inland Empire rose 16.3% from the 4th quarter of 2019 to 4th quarter of 2020. Robust price growth in the IE and elsewhere has been driven by the fact that homebuyers are typically higher income and have been less affected by the pandemic, by low mortgage rates, and by historically low inventories.
- Rising Rent: Asking rents in the Inland Empire grew 2.5% over the past year to $1,467 per-unit per month. Despite the growth, rent in the region is still more affordable than in Los Angeles ($1,973), San Diego ($1,860), and Orange ($1,954) Counties.
- Retail Under Pressure: Unsurprisingly, demand for retail space in the Inland Empire fell over the last year with the vacancy rate rising to 10.0% in the 4th quarter of 2020. Asking rents also fell by -2.9% to an annual rate of $22.59 per square foot. In contrast, demand for warehouse, office, and flex/R&D properties increased over the year.
The new Inland Empire Regional Intelligence Report was authored by Osman and Senior Research Associate Brian Vanderplas. The analysis examines how the Inland Empire’s labor market, real estate markets, and other areas of the economy are recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and their outlook for the remainder of the year. View the full analysis here.
Business
Economist Christopher Thornberg, State Treasurer Fiona Ma Headline New Forecast Conference

Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Economy
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong
Bizz Buzz
Workforce Development Earns National Achievement Awards

#bizzbuzz
Inspired by the Board of Supervisors’ commitment to meet the needs of employers and jobseekers and foster a vibrant local economy, the San Bernardino County Workforce Development Department has been honored with eight 2023 Achievement Awards from the National Association of Counties (NACo).
Among the services and initiatives for which WDB was honored were the Rapid Response Community Resource Fair, Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program and, in partnership with the Public Defender’s office, the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs.
Thanks to strong and stable leadership and policy direction from Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe and her colleagues on the Board of Supervisors, San Bernardino County received a record-breaking 160 NACo awards this year. The awards reflect the Board’s efforts to cultivate the innovation that leads to the development of outstanding public service programs.
The NACo awards recognize the best of the best among county governments across the U.S. Nationwide, 40,000 county elected officials and 3.6 million county employees provide important services, such as caring for our physical and mental health, maintaining roads, ensuring public safety, strengthening environmental stewardship, administering elections and much more.
“The Workforce Development programs and services recognized by NACo highlight the extraordinary work being done by Workforce Development to enhance career opportunities for our residents and help businesses grow,” Rowe said.
The first Rapid Response Community Resource Fair was developed shortly after United Furniture Industries (UFI) abruptly laid off more 300 employees in the High Desert without advance notice just days before Thanksgiving 2022. When Workforce Development was alerted, staff quickly mobilized businesses and community partners to help connect those laid off to available employment opportunities, as well as various other community resources. Approximately 275 of the affected UFI employees were offered new employment opportunities as a result.
The Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program was a pilot program that tapped into the wide-reaching business network of chambers of commerce. This collaboration between WDB and various chambers of commerce throughout the county was designed to leverage the relationship between chambers and small businesses to build awareness and accessibility to Workforce Development services available to them. Outcomes as a result of this partnership include various successful services including job listings, job fairs, positions filled, and job training assistance, among others.
Perhaps the most impactful program receiving this recognition is the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs. Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s Office have partnered with businesses and community organizations to increase economic access and equity. The partnership was designed to bring critical resources directly into the community – to churches, community centers, community colleges, and America’s Job Centers – for those looking to remove barriers and increase their access to employment opportunities and other services. The Public Defender helps participants by providing expungement or record clearing services, and Workforce Development brings employers with job opportunities, all within the same location. The events have been well received and proven useful to the community, making this a long-term partnership, not only between Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s office but a long list of other community organizations that have also participated.
“Our team and board feel fortunate to be recognized for these awards,” said William Sterling, chairman of the Workforce Development Board. “The underlying factor of the programs being recognized are partnerships. We feel fortunate for our staff and the relationships developed with other departments and organizations and the impact these services have had within our communities, which is at the core of what public service is supposed to be.”
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