Opinion
Despite Popular Narratives, California’s Economy is Doing Fine…For Now
Leading Economic Forecast Pushes Back Against “Doom and Gloom” Prophecies; State’s Housing Supply Problem At The Crux Of Slowing Economy
California is far from becoming the ‘failed state’ depicted by critics, and even a cursory look at the data proves it, says one of the state’s leading economic forecasts. According to Beacon Economics‘ latest outlook for California, the state’s economy will continue to grow in the near future and there is little sign of a recession in 2024.
Consider a few of the new forecast’s findings:
- Since just prior to the pandemic, the number of jobs in California has grown by only 2.1%, compared to 3.7% in the nation as a whole, however, the state’s private sector output has grown by 10% compared to just 8% in the nation overall. This means that California’s output has expanded through greater worker productivity.
- California’s median household income grew by 9.2% from 2019 to 2022, compared to just 8% growth in the nation overall. Median incomes in the state are now 14.3% higher than in the U.S. as a whole, the largest gap ever seen in this data.
- Real income (accounts for inflation) has increased despite persistent claims to the contrary. Official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a 20% increase in consumer prices in California between the end of 2019 and the end of 2023, but a 23% increase in workers’ average weekly earnings over the same period. Importantly, the earnings growth has been greatest among lower skilled workers, according to the new forecast.
- From 2019 to 2022, the average poverty rate in California was 12%, lower than the U.S. average and the lowest level ever seen in the state.
The new forecast is careful to acknowledge California’s glaring problems, including its housing shortage and massive budget deficit, but argues that untruthful and excessively negative narratives are making things materially worse by affecting the way leaders spend their time and do their jobs.
“The state’s economy certainly has its share of problems, but many of these issues are things that can be solved with some pragmatic changes to state policy,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and the forecast author. “When pessimistic public narratives take hold, no matter how false or overblown, elected leaders tend to veer off on impractical missions to fix problems that don’t really exist – at least not in the way these artificial narratives say they do.”
One of the most urgent, and real, challenges facing California this year is it’s colossal budget deficit of between $35 and $70 billion, depending on who you ask. But according to the new forecast, this gap is not a function of the state’s economy, which is growing, it is the obvious (and oft repeated) result of a volatile revenue system that badly needs to be overhauled.
“California loves soak-the-rich policies, and our high marginal tax rate on high-income earners means that when financial markets are hot, revenues surge, but when asset values fall or crash, it cuts deeply into the state’s tax haul,” said Thornberg. “On top of that, we have a mishmash of band aid type laws that have been put in place over the years which force a certain amount of spending, preventing lawmakers from saving for lean times.”
All that said, according to Thornberg, California’s biggest budgetary problem today is not with revenues but expenditures. “State spending is currently 40% higher than it was pre-pandemic, and as painful as it is, the deficit will not fully go away until either programs are cut back or new taxes are raised, both of which would be incredibly difficult to achieve,” he said.
In terms of the state’s economic future, perhaps California’s most burning dilemma is its low supply of housing, which has driven infamously high housing costs and a declining population, ergo workforce. According to the forecast, the only way to fix the problem is to sharply expand the pace of new housing supply. “This is a tremendously consequential issue for the economy and population of the state – a workforce cannot grow if there is nowhere for workers to live,” said Thornberg. “The inability to genuinely tackle our housing supply issue is slowing the mighty California economic machine and the effects we’ve started to see in the past few years will only grow worse.”
View the new The Beacon Outlook California including full forecast tables here.
Opinion
Ontario International Airport Welcomes Avelo Airlines with New Nonstop Service to Sonoma County
Expansion Connects Southern California Travelers to Northern California’s Premier Wine Destination
Ontario International Airport (ONT) continues its impressive growth trajectory with the recent announcement from Avelo Airlines about their exclusive nonstop service to Sonoma County and Northern California’s renowned wine country. Starting October 10, the service will operate twice weekly on Thursdays and Sundays, connecting travelers directly to the Charles M. Schulz Sonoma County Airport (STS).
Streamlined Travel Experience
Passengers choosing Ontario International Airport are set to benefit immensely, not just from the expanded destination choices but also from the significant time savings associated with flying out of ONT. Known for its convenience and efficiency, ONT offers a more relaxed and hassle-free travel experience compared to larger, more congested airports. The smaller scale and thoughtful layout of ONT allow passengers to navigate check-ins, security, and boarding processes much more quickly, reducing the stress often associated with air travel.
Local Impact and Convenience
“Atif Elkadi, Chief Executive Officer of the Ontario International Airport Authority, highlighted the benefits of the new service, stating, “We are thrilled to add Avelo Airlines to our family of air carriers as we continue to provide exciting new destinations and travel options for the millions of Southern Californians who have made ONT their airport of choice.”
ONT’s strategic location and accessibility play a crucial role in its popularity. Situated in the heart of Southern California’s Inland Empire, the airport is conveniently reachable for residents from San Bernardino to Riverside and the surrounding suburbs. The airport’s proximity to major freeways reduces travel time to the airport itself, which is a significant advantage for local residents and businesses.
Enhanced Access to Northern California
Andrew Levy, Founder and CEO of Avelo Airlines, expressed enthusiasm about the new route, saying, “We are thrilled to announce our new nonstop service from Ontario to the Bay Area/Sonoma County, offering travelers a convenient, reliable, and affordable way to one of the most beautiful and vibrant regions in Northern California.”
Jon Stout, STS Airport Manager, also noted the mutual benefits of the new connection, “It’s fantastic to see Avelo connect Sonoma County with Ontario. This new route will bring a new level of convenience for our local residents and our neighbors in the Inland Empire.”
ONT’s continued expansion and the addition of new routes like the one to Sonoma County reflect its role as a pivotal hub in the region. With the airport on track to exceed 7 million passengers this year and recent records showing more than 650,000 passengers in June alone, ONT is setting new benchmarks in serving the community.
A Gateway to Growth
With world-class facilities and a commitment to excellent customer service, Ontario International Airport is rapidly becoming the gateway of choice for travelers seeking both domestic and international connections. Elkadi proudly asserts, “With our world-class facilities, great amenities, and unparalleled customer experiences, we are proud to connect the world to one of the most dynamic population and economic centers in the country.”
As ONT continues to expand its services and streamline travel experiences, it solidifies its position not just as a transport hub but as a significant contributor to the economic vitality of the Inland Empire.
Opinion
Surge in Unemployment Among California Youth Linked to Minimum Wage Hikes
“We have to stop touting the minimum wage as a completely harmless policy, or as some kind of remedy for poverty and income inequality… it is neither.”
In the past 18 months, California’s unemployment rate has jumped to the highest in the nation and a new analysis by Beacon Economics suggests that this peculiar increase could be a direct result of the state’s recent minimum wage hikes. Most concerning, according to the report, is that the current unemployment effect is specifically harming some of California’s most vulnerable residents—the state’s youth.
The new report highlights the fact that 90% of newly unemployed Californians over the past year and a half are under the age of 35 with the hardest hit group being teenagers. “This loss of youth work opportunity carries with it real long-run harm,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and co-author of the new analysis. “It not only denies younger workers a critical source of income it deprives them of work experience that has been empirically shown to improve their chances of long-run success.”
While the recent rise in unemployment in California has occurred in tandem with the state’s minimum wage hikes, the relationship likely extends beyond mere correlation. According to the analysis, the jump in unemployment is incongruous with other measures of the California economy, which have continued to expand at a respectable rate. In fact, both output and household income in the state are robust and growing either faster than or similar to the nation overall. Yet, the unemployment rate in the United States as a whole has barely budged in the past 24 months.
And there is yet another anomaly: throughout the recent rise in unemployment, there has been no corresponding increase in unemployment insurance claims. If laid off tech and entertainment industry workers were driving California’s higher unemployment rate, it would almost certainly be reflected, at least to some degree, in UI claims, according to the analysis.
“For far too long, researchers and advocates alike have held up the minimum wage as a harmless and effective policy remedy for poverty and income inequality, but it is neither of those things,” said Thornberg. “Evidence has shown us that minimum wages don’t do much to address the ills they are intended to correct, but carry a substantial cost, particularly for our state’s future workers.”
Although well intentioned, Thornberg, and co-author Niree Kodaverdian, argue that higher minimum wages cause prices to increase, which end up reducing real incomes for lower-skilled workers. Available data and past empirical studies show that wage floors do very little to divert income from higher income workers to lower income ones, which is how minimum wage laws are typically characterized by proponents.
The specific effect on youth is caused because as labor costs go up relative to other inputs, employers who might have used lower-skilled, entry level workers, such as teenagers, move towards hiring older, more experienced workers, according to the analysis. The idea is that if an employer is legally obligated to pay a higher wage, they will naturally hire more skilled and productive workers to offset higher labor costs. Since those under age 25 make up nearly half of minimum wage workers, this restructuring disproportionally affects the state’s youth.
The report firmly acknowledges the need for policies to help alleviate the strain on lower income households in pricey California but argues that this particular policy remedy doesn’t work as intended, and when pushed too far, can inflict real harm on some of the state’s most vulnerable residents. Better policy options, according to the authors, include the Earned Income Tax Credit, early childhood education, and increased training for lower-skilled adults.
The full analysis can be found here.
Health & Wellness
Conquering Hanger: Smart Strategies for Balanced Blood Sugar
Stay Energized and Focused with These Proactive Tips for Managing Hunger and Mood
Wellness Tips By Sarah Goudie, Nutrition Expert & Guest Writer for IEBJ
We’ve all been there: mornings rushed, constant pivots throughout the day, and suddenly it’s 7 pm with no thought given to food. Looking back on those moments, we all know what we resort to when we’re hangry.
Irritable. Scatterbrained. Shaky. Weak. Reduced impulse control. Tanked.
It’s simply the connection between our stomach and brain, as blood sugar levels can affect the release of hormones like adrenaline and cortisol, the fight or flight and stress hormones.
So, let’s address this blood sugar regulation/hangry cycle by taking care of ourselves in a few different ways.
- Prioritize Protein and Fat Before Your Morning Coffee: Your first meal sets the tone for the day ahead. Starting with protein before your coffee or favorite pastry can help stabilize blood sugar levels and provide satisfaction and sustenance. A handy tip: prepare a batch of hard-boiled eggs or protein pancakes on your day off for convenient grab-and-go options before you head out. Trust me, cold protein pancakes make for a quick and nutritious bite on your way to work! (Try the recipe below!)
- Opt for Balanced Meals: When you have a chance to eat, even if it’s not your ideal meal, prioritize finishing your protein first, followed by your veggies and fruits. If you’re including simple carbohydrates, save those for the end of your meal. This meal sequencing helps regulate blood sugar levels and mood.
- Plan Ahead—Even Days in Advance: Sometimes, waking up 15 minutes earlier isn’t enough to ensure a nourishing breakfast and packed lunch. However, planning earlier in the week can alleviate the morning rush before you start your day. I often create a menu tailored to my work week, carefully considering seasonal foods and my personal goals. While meal prepping is fantastic if you have the time and enjoy leftovers, simply having a plan and doing the shopping can empower you and reassure you that your kitchen is stocked and ready.
- Slow Down: The quality of the foods we eat is important (think locally sourced, sustainable, clean), but so is the timing of our meals, as well as our mood and our focus while eating. Be intentional about meal times—sit down, step away from your desk, TV, or phone, and fully immerse yourself in the experience of eating. Many times, we eat quickly without being mindful. If you must eat on the go, find a quiet spot, whether it’s a park bench or pulled over in your car. Take the time to see, smell, and taste your food.
- SNACK SMART: This last tip is bolded for good reason—it has been a lifesaver for me countless times. Pack snacks. Every day. ESPECIALLY WHEN TRAVELING. We never know what the day will bring, so we must be prepared when we can’t access a full meal. Some of my favorite go-to snacks include “That’s It” bars, “RX” bars, a handful of macadamia nuts, or Paleo Valley protein sticks…not to mention my favorite reusable water bottle (complete with a straw designed to fit perfectly in my car cup holder). Being armed with snacks containing essential nutrients (fat, carbs, protein, and fiber) will help you navigate those moments when you’re tempted to make a fast food run.
*On the topic of fast food: Stay tuned for next month’s article, where I’ll unveil my top picks for healthier alternatives on those unavoidable drive-thru days!
Leaning into these proactive steps can revolutionize your approach to mindful fuel for your body. Embracing protein-rich breakfasts, balanced meal strategies, proactive planning, mindful eating habits, and smart snacking choices nourishes your body. It cultivates a deeper connection with your food and overall well-being. You can take charge of your dietary journey, one thoughtful bite at a time, and savor the rewards of a healthier, more vibrant life.
Check out my favorite protein pancake recipe!
- Servings: 6 small pancakes
- 1 large banana
- 2 large eggs
- 1/2 tsp cinnamon
- 1 tablespoon coconut oil for pan
- 1 scoop of your preferred protein powder
- 1. Preheat skillet
- 2. Blend ingredients above
- 3. Use the coconut oil to prep the pan
- 4. Cook till golden brown
- 5. Serve warm, and add some fun toppings! My go-to toppings are hemp seeds, fresh seasonal fruit, a scoop of almond butter, and a drizzle of honey.
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