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June Brings Largest Monthly Job Increase On Record As Health Mandates Eased

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Good News Tempered: Resurging Virus, Expected to Drag Down July and August Numbers; California Unemployment Rate Declines Modestly

July 17, 2020 — In June, as public health mandates to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus were eased, California saw the largest month-over-month job increase on record, with the addition of 558,200 positions, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. 

Any exuberance should be tempered, however, since there are still roughly two million fewer jobs in the state than at the peak prior to the pandemic. Furthermore, the resurging spread of the virus in the state has led Governor Newsom to reimplement many business closures. A stable and ongoing economic recovery cannot occur until the virus is contained in the state and the nation, according to the analysis.

“Despite June’s strong numbers, we’re unlikely to see the labor market’s recovery continue at such a pace,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center for Forecasting. “The number of jobs added will likely represent the high mark until the virus in the state is contained. The strongest job gains were seen in Leisure and Hospitality, and these are the very sectors that will be hit the hardest by health-mandated business closures.”

In June, year-over-year employment growth in California stood at -10.0%, a decline of 1.7 million positions, the third largest annual decline on record, only trumped by the figures in April and May. The state fared worse than the nation, where nonfarm employment declined by 8.6% over the same period.

From June 2019 to June 2020, 2.1 million workers were added to the state’s unemployment ranks, which means in June, the unemployment rate stood at 14.9%, a relatively modest decline from the 16.3% rate recorded in May. California’s June unemployment rate is higher than the national figure of 11.1%. The number of unemployed Californian’s is over three and half times the level seen one year earlier, at 2,831,031.

On a positive note, the state’s labor force surged by 441,200 people in June, as encouraged workers rejoined the labor force. That said, state’s labor force has declined by 433,000 over the past year, although the strong month cut the pandemic declines by just over half. 

Key Findings:

  • As Leisure and Hospitality led job losses in April, the sector led job gains in June, increasing payrolls by 292,500. This sector accounted for 52% of all job gains in California for the month. Both Accommodation and Food Services (242,500) and Arts and Entertainment (50,000) added to their payrolls by healthy margins in June. However, Leisure and Hospitality has significant ground to make-up, with payrolls falling 30% from June 2019 to June 2020. The re-implementation of restrictions on inside dining and bars will likely negatively affect the industry in July.   
  • The easing of public health mandates also allowed a significant number of Retail establishments to open their doors, which increased payrolls by 71,300 in June. Other Services – which includes hair and nail salons – also benefited from the easing of public health mandates, adding 27,700 positions during the month. However, the reimplementation of businesses closures will hit Retail Trade and Other Services in July and August.
  • Sectors that were not as impacted by the public health mandates also expanded in June. Construction (+26,800) and Manufacturing (+23,400) grew by significant margin, and importantly, these gains should not be impacted by the reimplementation of closures. These sectors also have ground to make up before returning to pre-recession levels, however, with payrolls in Construction (-4.5%) and Manufacturing (-7.6%) down over the last year.
  • Government was the only sector to post declines in June as payrolls decreased by 36,300 positions during the month. State Government was responsible for the bulk of the declines, with payrolls falling by 30,200 in June. Government positions have been slightly more insulated from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic than those in the private sector but are still down 7.6% over the last year.
  • Regionally, job increases were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the biggest increase, where payrolls grew by 154,900 during the month. Orange County (68,200), San Diego (51,600), and the Inland Empire (43,800) also added a significant number of jobs during the month. Over the past year, Orange County (-11.7%) experienced the steepest job losses in the region, measured by percentage decrease, followed by Ventura (-10.3%), Los Angeles (MD) (-10.3%), San Diego (-10.3%), and the Inland Empire (-9.7%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) and San Jose experienced the largest increases, where payrolls each expanded by 37,200 positions in June. The East Bay (27,300), Santa Rosa (8,500), San Rafael (MD) (5,500), Napa (3,800), and Vallejo (2,800) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Over the past year, Vallejo (-12.6%) had the steepest declines in the region, followed by the East Bay (-12.1%), San Francisco (MD) (-10.9%), and San Rafael (MD) (-10.5%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 23,400 positions. Payrolls in Fresno (10,600), Bakersfield (9,900), Modesto (7,600), Stockton (7,500), and Visalia (5,300) increased as well. Over the last year, Yuba (-11.4%) had the steepest declines followed by Modesto (-10.4%), Sacramento (-9.3%), Madera (-9.2%), Bakersfield (-9.0%), Chico, (-8.5%), and Redding (-8.5%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara added the largest number of jobs, with payrolls increasing by 7,100 during the month. Payrolls in Salinas (6,600), San Luis Obispo (2,500), and Santa Cruz (2,400) also increased during the month. From a year-over-year perspective, San Luis Obispo (-15.9%) shed positions at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (-14.8%), Salinas (-13.5%), and Santa Barbara (-11.5%).

By Beacon Economics, an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. This analysis was authored by Taner Osman and Brian Vanderplas. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com and www.ucreconomicforecast.org.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Career & Workplace

California Accounts for More than One-Quarter of All Jobs Added in the Nation

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State’s Workforce Contracts Again; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

 California’s labor market grew solidly in the latest numbers, with total nonfarm employment in the state expanding by 40,200 positions during October, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. Indeed, California accounted for over 26% of all the jobs added in the United States in October. Moreover, September’s gains were revised up to 14,400, a 5,700 increase from the preliminary estimate of 8,700.

“Despite the strikes in Hollywood, Los Angeles County led the job gains in the state during the month,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “Now that the strikes have ended, it should help fuel positive momentum in California’s labor market as we head towards the end of the year.”

There are now 442,410 more people employed in the state compared to February 2020, the pre-pandemic peak. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.5% since that time, compared to a 3.0% increase nationally. California increased payrolls by 1.6% from October 2022 to October 2023, trailing the 1.9% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in October 2023, up 0.1 percentage-points from the previous month; the state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.9% rate in the United States overall. California continues to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 11,100 in October, a decrease of 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 227,300 workers, a 1.2% decline.

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were mixed. The Health Care sector led the way in October, expanding payrolls by 13,400, an increase of 0.75% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains, Health Care payrolls are now 9.7% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Leisure and Hospitality was the next best performing sector, adding 5,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. With these gains, Leisure and Hospitality payrolls are now 0.4%, or 7,400 jobs, above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Construction (4,500 or 0.5%), Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (4,500 or 0.5%), Manufacturing (3,400 or 0.3%), Government (2,400 or 0.1%), Administrative Support (2,200 or 0.2%), Other Services (2,000 or 0.3%), and Retail Trade (1,900 or 0.1%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in October. Finance and Insurance saw the largest declines, with payrolls falling by 1,000, a drop of 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. Other sectors posting declines during the month were Education (-200) and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (-200).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, with payrolls growing by 11,100 (0.2%) during the month. Orange County (4,000 or 0.2%), San Diego (4,000 or 0.3%), the Inland Empire (3,700 or 0.2%), Ventura (1,100 or 0.3%), and El Centro (200 or 0.3%) also saw their payrolls increase. Over the past year, Ventura (2.2%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (2.1%), El Centro (1.9%), San Diego (1.7%), Los Angeles (MD) (1.6%), and the Inland Empire (1.4%).
  • In the Bay Area, growth was mixed. San Francisco (MD) (4,000 or 0.3%) experienced the largest increase during the month. Napa (700 or 1.0%) and Santa Rosa (400 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls expand. On the other hand, payrolls declined in Vallejo (-900 or -0.6%), the East Bay (-500 or -0.0%), and San Jose (-400 or -0.0%). Over the past 12 months, San Rafael (MD) (3.6%) has experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Santa Rosa (3.1%), the East Bay (1.5%), San Francisco (MD) (1.3%), Vallejo (1.1%), San Jose (1.0%), and Napa (0.7%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento enjoyed the largest monthly increase, expanding payrolls by 3,200 (0.3%) positions in October. Payrolls in Modesto (2,200 or 1.2%), Fresno (2,000 or 0.5%), Bakersfield (1,600 or 0.5%), Merced (600 or 0.9%), Visalia (500 or 0.4%), Madera (200 or 0.5%), Chico (100 or 0.1%), Hanford (100 or 0.2%), and Yuba (100 or 0.2%) also expanded during the month. On the other hand, payrolls in Stockton (-400 or -0.1%) and Redding (-100 or -0.1%) fell. Over the past year, Yuba (3.2%) has seen the fastest growth, followed by Hanford (2.9%), Modesto (2.7%), Sacramento (2.1%), Visalia (1.8%), Fresno (1.6%), Bakersfield (1.5%), Chico (1.4%), Stockton (0.6%), Madera (0.0%), Redding (-1.4%), and Merced (-2.5%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Cruz (500 or 0.5%) and Salinas (500 or 0.3%) added the largest number of jobs. San Luis Obispo (200 or 0.2%) and Santa Barbara (100 or 0.0%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From October 2022 to October 2023, Salinas (4.4%) has added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by San Luis Obispo (3.8%), Santa Cruz (2.3%), and Santa Barbara (2.2%).
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Career & Workplace

California’s Population Decline Continues to Hammer Labor Supply

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State’s Workforce Contracts Again In Latest Numbers; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up 

California’s labor market grew modestly in the latest numbers. Total nonfarm employment in the state expanded by 8,700 positions in September, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. August’s gains were also revised down to 8,900, a 19,000 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 27,900.

As of September 2023, California has recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020 (the beginning of the pandemic), and there are now 436,400 more people employed in the state compared to pre-pandemic February 2020. Since that time, total nonfarm employment in California has grown 2.5% compared to a 3.0% increase nationally. On an annual basis, California increased payrolls by 1.7% from September 2022 to September 2023, trailing the 2.1% increase at the national level over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.7% in the latest numbers, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.8% rate in the United States overall. Moreover, California continues to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 17,700 in September, a decrease of 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has contracted by 216,300 workers, a 1.1% decline.

“Census figures released this week reveal the extent to which households continue to leave California,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “The state’s population has fallen by half a million people over the past three years and this is filtering through to the economy, where the labor force has shrunk and employers are struggling to find workers.”

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were mixed in the latest numbers. The Health Care sector led the way with payrolls expanding by 18,200, an increase of 0.7% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains, Health Care payrolls are now 9.6% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Leisure and Hospitality was the next best-performing sector, adding 11,300 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.5%. With these gains Leisure and Hospitality payrolls are now 0.4%, or 8,500 jobs, above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Retail Trade (3,100 or 0.2%), Construction (2,200 or 0.2%), Real Estate (600 or 0.2%), and Management (500 or 0.2%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in September. Information experienced the largest declines, with payrolls falling by 7,300, a contraction of 1.3% on a month-over-month basis. However, this decline was driven by the strikes in the Motion Picture and Sound Recording sub-sector, which has shed 30,800 positions over the last year, a 18.2% decline.
  • Other sectors posting declines during the month were Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (-5,900 or -0.4%), Administrative Support (-5,500 or -0.5%), Manufacturing (-4,600 or -0.3%), Finance and Insurance (-2,200 or -0.4%), Other Services (-1,100 or -0.2%), and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (-500 or -0.1%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California in September. Los Angeles (MD) experienced the largest increase, with payrolls growing by 8,700 (0.2%) during the month. The Inland Empire (5,900 or 0.4%), Orange County (5,400 or 0.3%), San Diego (1,400 or 0.1%), and Ventura (800 or 0.3%) also enjoyed job gains. Over the past year, Orange County (2.1%) has seen the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Los Angeles (MD) (2.0%), El Centro (1.8%), Ventura (1.7%), San Diego (1.5%), and the Inland Empire (0.7%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, growth was mixed. San Rafael (MD) (1,000 or 0.9%) and Santa Rosa (1,00 or 0.5%) enjoyed the largest increase during the month. Vallejo (600 or 0.4%) also saw payrolls expand. On the other hand, San Francisco (MD) (-4,100 or -0.3%), San Jose (-1,800 or -0.2%), the East Bay (-1,600 or -0.1%), and Napa (-300 or -0.4%) all experienced payroll declines during the month. Over the past 12 months, Santa Rosa (3.4%) has had the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Rafael (MD) (3.0%), the East Bay (2.0%), Vallejo (1.9%), San Francisco (MD) (1.4%), San Jose (1.3%), and Napa (0.5%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly job gains with payrolls expanding by 2,200 (0.2%) positions in September. Payrolls in Bakersfield (700 or 0.2%), Modesto (700 or 0.4%), Redding (500 or 0.7%), Visalia (400 or 0.3%), Stockton (200 or 0.1%), and Chico (100 or 0.1%) also jumped during the month. On the other hand, Madera (-300 or -0.7%) and Merced (-100 or -0.1%) had payrolls decline. Over the past year, Yuba (2.6%) has enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Hanford (2.4%), Fresno (2.3%), Sacramento (2.1%), Visalia (1.4%), Chico (1.3%), Bakersfield (1.0%), Madera (0.7%), Stockton (0.7%), Modesto (0.2%), Redding (0.0%), and Merced (-3.6%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara (400 or 0.2%) added the largest number of jobs in September. Salinas (300 or 0.2%) and Santa Cruz (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. On the other hand, payrolls in San Luis Obispo declined (-300 or -0.2%). From September 2022 to September 2023, Salinas (4.2%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by San Luis Obispo (3.1%), Santa Barbara (2.9%), and Santa Cruz (1.7%).
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Career & Workplace

California Employment Gains Pick Up in the Latest Numbers

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Hollywood Strike Effects: Job Sector That Houses Motion Picture and Sound Recording Sees Largest Decline

California’s labor market grew modestly in the latest numbers, with total nonfarm employment in the state expanding by 23,100 positions in August, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. July’s gains were revised down to 8,900, a 19,000 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 27,900.

“It was a bit of mixed bag during August, with the largest regions in California both gaining and shedding jobs,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “However, following a couple of slower months, employment gains did pick up, which sets the state up nicely as we enter a seasonally strong part of the year.”

As of August 2023, California has recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020 due to the pandemic. There are now 447,600 more people employed in the state compared to February 2020. Total nonfarm employment has grown 2.5% since that time compared to a 2.7% increase nationally. From August 2022 to August 2023, California increased payrolls by 1.9%, trailing the 2.0% increase nationally over the same period.

The state’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.6% in August 2023. California’s unemployment rate is elevated relative to the 3.8% rate in the United States overall. The state is continuing to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 18,000 in August, a decrease of 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 197,500 workers, a 1.0% decline.

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were mixed. The Health Care sector led the way with payrolls expanding by 11,400, an increase of 0.4% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains Health Care payrolls are now 9.0% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Government was the next best performing sector, adding 5,200 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. With these gains, Government payrolls are now just 1.2%, or 32,500 jobs, below their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Construction (4,700 or 0.5%), Administrative Support (3,800 or 0.3%), Other Services (3,800 or 0.6%), Leisure and Hospitality (2,800 or 0.1%), Education (2,600 or 0.6%), Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (1,400 or 0.2%), and Manufacturing (1,300 or 0.1%).
  • Payrolls decreased in only a handful of sectors in August. Information saw the largest declines with payrolls falling by 9,000, a drop of 1.5% on a month-over-month basis. This decline was driven by the ongoing strikes in Motion Picture and Sound Recording, which has shed 15,200 positions over the last year, a 9.0% decline. Other sectors posting declines during the month were Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
    (-3,800 or -0.3%), Wholesale Trade (-1,100 or -0.2%), and Finance and Insurance (-800 or -0.1%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by the San Francisco Bay Area. The East Bay experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 2,700 (0.2%) positions in August. Santa Rosa (700 or 0.3%), San Rafael (MD) (200 or 0.2%), Vallejo (200 or 0.1%), and Napa (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls expand during the month. On the other hand, San Francisco (MD) (-1,200 or -0.1%) and San Jose (-500) experienced payroll declines. Over the past 12 months, the East Bay (2.5%) and Napa (2.5%) saw the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Francisco (MD) (2.4%), San Rafael (MD) (2.3%), Santa Rosa (2.2%), San Jose (2.0%), and Vallejo (1.8%).
  • In Southern California, Orange County saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 7,100 (0.4%) during the month. San Diego (2,800 or 0.2%) and the Inland Empire (2,400 or 0.1%), also saw their payrolls jump. On the other hand, Los Angeles (MD) (-10,300 or -0.2%) and Ventura (-200 or -0.1%) experienced payroll declines during the month. Over the past year, San Diego (2.0%), Orange County (2.0%), and Los Angeles (MD) (2.0%) have enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Ventura (1.6%), El Centro (1.2%), and the Inland Empire (0.6%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 2,700 (0.2%) positions in August. Payrolls in Fresno (1,100 or 0.3%), Stockton (800 or 0.3%), Hanford (400 or 0.9%), Redding (300 or 0.4%), Chico (200 or 0.3%), and Yuba (200 or 0.4%) also saw their payrolls jump. On the other hand, Bakersfield (-2,100 or -0.7%), Visalia (-900 or -0.6%), Merced (-500 or -0.7%), and Modesto (-200 or -0.1%) had payrolls fall during the month. Over the past year, Hanford (38%) enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Yuba (3.7%), Sacramento (2.4%), Redding (2.0%), Fresno (1.9%), Merced (1.8%), Chico (1.7%), Stockton (1.4%), Madera (1.4%), Visalia (1.0%), Bakersfield (0.7%), and Modesto (-1.1%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Salinas (1,000 or 0.7%) added the largest number of jobs. Santa Cruz (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. On the other hand, Santa Barbara (-1,000 or -0.5%) saw payrolls fall during the month. From August 2022 to August 2023, Salinas (4.7%) has added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by San Luis Obispo (3.8%), Santa Barbara (2.9%), and Santa Cruz (2.0%).
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