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June Brings Largest Monthly Job Increase On Record As Health Mandates Eased

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Good News Tempered: Resurging Virus, Expected to Drag Down July and August Numbers; California Unemployment Rate Declines Modestly

July 17, 2020 — In June, as public health mandates to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus were eased, California saw the largest month-over-month job increase on record, with the addition of 558,200 positions, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. 

Any exuberance should be tempered, however, since there are still roughly two million fewer jobs in the state than at the peak prior to the pandemic. Furthermore, the resurging spread of the virus in the state has led Governor Newsom to reimplement many business closures. A stable and ongoing economic recovery cannot occur until the virus is contained in the state and the nation, according to the analysis.

“Despite June’s strong numbers, we’re unlikely to see the labor market’s recovery continue at such a pace,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center for Forecasting. “The number of jobs added will likely represent the high mark until the virus in the state is contained. The strongest job gains were seen in Leisure and Hospitality, and these are the very sectors that will be hit the hardest by health-mandated business closures.”

In June, year-over-year employment growth in California stood at -10.0%, a decline of 1.7 million positions, the third largest annual decline on record, only trumped by the figures in April and May. The state fared worse than the nation, where nonfarm employment declined by 8.6% over the same period.

From June 2019 to June 2020, 2.1 million workers were added to the state’s unemployment ranks, which means in June, the unemployment rate stood at 14.9%, a relatively modest decline from the 16.3% rate recorded in May. California’s June unemployment rate is higher than the national figure of 11.1%. The number of unemployed Californian’s is over three and half times the level seen one year earlier, at 2,831,031.

On a positive note, the state’s labor force surged by 441,200 people in June, as encouraged workers rejoined the labor force. That said, state’s labor force has declined by 433,000 over the past year, although the strong month cut the pandemic declines by just over half. 

Key Findings:

  • As Leisure and Hospitality led job losses in April, the sector led job gains in June, increasing payrolls by 292,500. This sector accounted for 52% of all job gains in California for the month. Both Accommodation and Food Services (242,500) and Arts and Entertainment (50,000) added to their payrolls by healthy margins in June. However, Leisure and Hospitality has significant ground to make-up, with payrolls falling 30% from June 2019 to June 2020. The re-implementation of restrictions on inside dining and bars will likely negatively affect the industry in July.   
  • The easing of public health mandates also allowed a significant number of Retail establishments to open their doors, which increased payrolls by 71,300 in June. Other Services – which includes hair and nail salons – also benefited from the easing of public health mandates, adding 27,700 positions during the month. However, the reimplementation of businesses closures will hit Retail Trade and Other Services in July and August.
  • Sectors that were not as impacted by the public health mandates also expanded in June. Construction (+26,800) and Manufacturing (+23,400) grew by significant margin, and importantly, these gains should not be impacted by the reimplementation of closures. These sectors also have ground to make up before returning to pre-recession levels, however, with payrolls in Construction (-4.5%) and Manufacturing (-7.6%) down over the last year.
  • Government was the only sector to post declines in June as payrolls decreased by 36,300 positions during the month. State Government was responsible for the bulk of the declines, with payrolls falling by 30,200 in June. Government positions have been slightly more insulated from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic than those in the private sector but are still down 7.6% over the last year.
  • Regionally, job increases were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the biggest increase, where payrolls grew by 154,900 during the month. Orange County (68,200), San Diego (51,600), and the Inland Empire (43,800) also added a significant number of jobs during the month. Over the past year, Orange County (-11.7%) experienced the steepest job losses in the region, measured by percentage decrease, followed by Ventura (-10.3%), Los Angeles (MD) (-10.3%), San Diego (-10.3%), and the Inland Empire (-9.7%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) and San Jose experienced the largest increases, where payrolls each expanded by 37,200 positions in June. The East Bay (27,300), Santa Rosa (8,500), San Rafael (MD) (5,500), Napa (3,800), and Vallejo (2,800) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Over the past year, Vallejo (-12.6%) had the steepest declines in the region, followed by the East Bay (-12.1%), San Francisco (MD) (-10.9%), and San Rafael (MD) (-10.5%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 23,400 positions. Payrolls in Fresno (10,600), Bakersfield (9,900), Modesto (7,600), Stockton (7,500), and Visalia (5,300) increased as well. Over the last year, Yuba (-11.4%) had the steepest declines followed by Modesto (-10.4%), Sacramento (-9.3%), Madera (-9.2%), Bakersfield (-9.0%), Chico, (-8.5%), and Redding (-8.5%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara added the largest number of jobs, with payrolls increasing by 7,100 during the month. Payrolls in Salinas (6,600), San Luis Obispo (2,500), and Santa Cruz (2,400) also increased during the month. From a year-over-year perspective, San Luis Obispo (-15.9%) shed positions at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (-14.8%), Salinas (-13.5%), and Santa Barbara (-11.5%).

By Beacon Economics, an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. This analysis was authored by Taner Osman and Brian Vanderplas. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com and www.ucreconomicforecast.org.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Career & Workplace

The City of Rancho Cucamonga Recognized as U.S. Best-in-Class Employer by Gallagher 

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Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Benchmarking Analysis Identifies U.S. Organizations That Excel in Optimizing Employee and Organizational Wellbeing 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga participated in Gallagher’s 2023 U.S. Benefits Strategy & Benchmarking Survey and was identified as an organization that excelled in implementing successful strategies for managing people and programs. The City of Rancho Cucamonga was recognized for its comprehensive framework for strategically investing in benefits, compensation and employee communication to support the health, financial security and career growth of its employees at a sustainable cost structure. 

Designations like Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Employer help current and potential employees understand and appreciate an organization’s workplace culture and people strategy; important differentiators as employers compete for talent in today’s labor market. 

“This award is a testament to the collective dedication and unwavering commitment of our team, reflecting the high standards we uphold in fostering a workplace that thrives on innovation, belonging, and employee well-being.” Robert Neiuber, Senior Human Resources Director, City of Rancho Cucamonga. 

A U.S. Best-in-Class Employer, the City of Rancho Cucamonga was assigned points based on its relative performance in: 

  • Plan horizons for benefits and compensation strategies 
  • Extent of the wellbeing strategy 
  • Turnover rate for full-time equivalents (FTEs) 
  • Completion of a workforce engagement survey 
  • Use of an HR technology strategy and its level of sophistication 
  • Difference in healthcare costs over the prior year 
  • Use of a communication strategy 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga understands that high employee expectations haven’t budged in the changing labor market and have regularly examined their formula to attract and retain talent,” said William F. Ziebell, CEO of Gallagher’s Benefits & HR Consulting Division. “In doing so, the City of Rancho Cucamonga utilizes data, workforce feedback tools and clearly defined policies to provide competitive benefits and experiences that their employees value.” 

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Career & Workplace

California Labor Market Closes out 2023 with Modest Growth, but Expect Adjustments when Annual Revision Hits in March

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State’s Workforce Contracts Again; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

California’s labor market grew modestly in the latest numbers, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. Total nonfarm employment in the state expanded by just 23,400 positions in December, however, the sum of California’s metropolitan areas showed a more robust increase of 55,100 positions. November’s gains were revised down to 8,100 in the latest numbers, a 1,200 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 9,300.

“Although job and labor force growth has been muted, we caution against reading too much into these figures because this is the last release before the annual benchmark revisions in March,” said Justin Niakamal, Research Manager at Beacon Economics.

As of December 2023, California had recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 508,100 more people employed in California compared to pre-pandemic February 2020. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.9% since that time compared to a 3.2% increase nationally. California increased payrolls by 1.7% from December 2022 to December 2023, matching the 1.7% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.7% rate in the United States overall. California is continuing to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 3,600 in December. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 243,800 workers, a 1.2% decline. 

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, gains were mixed. Healthcare led payroll gains in December, with payrolls expanding by 9,100, an increase of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains Healthcare payrolls are now 10.8% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Government was the next best performing sector, adding 8,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.3%. However, with these gains Government payrolls are still 0.3%, or 28,400 jobs, below their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Leisure and Hospitality (7,100 or 0.3%), Education (4,100 or 1.0%), Manufacturing (2,600 or 0.2%), Other Services (1,300 or 0.2%), Wholesale Trade (1,200 or 0.2%), Retail Trade (1,100 or 0.1%), and Real Estate (1,100 or 0.4%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in December. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities experienced the largest payroll declines, with payrolls falling by 4,400, a decline of 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. Other sectors posting declines during the month were Administrative Support (-4,100 or -0.4%), Finance and Insurance (-2,200 or -0.4%), Information (-1,900 or -0.3%), Management (-400 or -0.2%), and Mining and Logging (-200 or -1.0%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. The Los Angeles County (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 17,800 (04%) during the month. Orange County (6,800 or 0.4%), the Inland Empire (6,400 or 0.4%), San Diego (5,500 or 0.3%), Ventura (500 or 0.2%), and El Centro (200 or 0.3%) also saw their payrolls jump. Over the past year, Ventura (2.6%) experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (2.1%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.1%), the Inland Empire (1.9%), El Centro (1.9%), and San Diego (1.5%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) (6,500 or 0.5%) had the largest increase during the month. San Jose (3,000 or 0.3%), Napa (400 or 0.5%, Santa Rosa (400 or 0.2%), and San Rafael (MD) (200 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls expand. Over the past 12 months, Santa Rosa (2.9%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Rafael (MD) (2.4%), the East Bay (1.9%), San Francisco (MD) (1.3%), Vallejo (1.3%), San Jose (1.1%), and Napa (0.8%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 2,400 (0.2%) positions in December. Payrolls in Fresno (1,500 or 0.4%), Merced (600 or 0.9%), Modesto (600 or 0.3%), Madera (300 or 0.7%), Redding (200 or 0.3%), and Yuba (200 or 0.4%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, Sacramento (2.8%) enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Yuba (2.7%), Modesto (2.7%), Hanford (2.4%), Fresno (2.2%), Visalia (1.9%), Bakersfield (1.1%), Stockton (0.6%), Madera (0.5%), Chico (0.3%), Merced (-0.3%), and Redding (-1.6%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara (900 or 0.4%) added the largest number of jobs. Santa Cruz (500 or 0.5%) and San Luis Obispo (400 or 0.3%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From December 2022 to December 2023, Salinas (4.61%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Barbara (3.4%), San Luis Obispo (2.7%), and Santa Cruz (2.4%).
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Business

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce Announces the 2024 Human Resources Conference, led by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Rudd & Romo (AALRR)

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Uniting Leaders, Shaping Futures: Charting the Next Course in Human Resources

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting and presented by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo (AALRR), announces the much-anticipated 2024 Human Resources Conference. Scheduled for February 15th, 2024, at the Jessie Turner Center, this event is set to be a landmark gathering for HR and business leaders.

Event Details:

  • Date: February 15th, 2024
  • Venue: Jessie Turner Center, [Full Address]
  • Title: 2024 2nd Annual Inland Empire HR Summit: Shaping the Future of Human Resources

The conference is hosted by The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting. AALRR, a leading full-service law firm, is the presenting sponsor, bringing their extensive legal expertise in employment and labor to the forefront of the event.

“We are thrilled to sponsor and present at the upcoming 2024 Human Resources Conference,” said Amber Solano, AALRR’s Private Labor and Employment Law Practice Group Chair. “With all of the recent changes in the law, we feel this is going to be a valuable event for human resource and business leaders throughout the region.”

The conference offers an invaluable platform for professionals to engage with evolving trends and innovations in HR, preparing them to lead in the changing world of work.

Special Highlights:

  • Renowned HR thought leaders as keynote speakers.
  • Networking opportunities with industry experts and peers.
  • A special focus session by AALRR on the evolving legal landscape in human resources.

“The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce is proud to collaborate with Insight HR consulting and leading speakers AALRR.  This partnership strengthens our commitment to delivering a conference that truly impacts the HR and Business community.” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., CEO.

For the event schedule, registration, and sponsorship details, please visit hr.iechamber.org

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