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June Brings Largest Monthly Job Increase On Record As Health Mandates Eased

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Good News Tempered: Resurging Virus, Expected to Drag Down July and August Numbers; California Unemployment Rate Declines Modestly

July 17, 2020 — In June, as public health mandates to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus were eased, California saw the largest month-over-month job increase on record, with the addition of 558,200 positions, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. 

Any exuberance should be tempered, however, since there are still roughly two million fewer jobs in the state than at the peak prior to the pandemic. Furthermore, the resurging spread of the virus in the state has led Governor Newsom to reimplement many business closures. A stable and ongoing economic recovery cannot occur until the virus is contained in the state and the nation, according to the analysis.

“Despite June’s strong numbers, we’re unlikely to see the labor market’s recovery continue at such a pace,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center for Forecasting. “The number of jobs added will likely represent the high mark until the virus in the state is contained. The strongest job gains were seen in Leisure and Hospitality, and these are the very sectors that will be hit the hardest by health-mandated business closures.”

In June, year-over-year employment growth in California stood at -10.0%, a decline of 1.7 million positions, the third largest annual decline on record, only trumped by the figures in April and May. The state fared worse than the nation, where nonfarm employment declined by 8.6% over the same period.

From June 2019 to June 2020, 2.1 million workers were added to the state’s unemployment ranks, which means in June, the unemployment rate stood at 14.9%, a relatively modest decline from the 16.3% rate recorded in May. California’s June unemployment rate is higher than the national figure of 11.1%. The number of unemployed Californian’s is over three and half times the level seen one year earlier, at 2,831,031.

On a positive note, the state’s labor force surged by 441,200 people in June, as encouraged workers rejoined the labor force. That said, state’s labor force has declined by 433,000 over the past year, although the strong month cut the pandemic declines by just over half. 

Key Findings:

  • As Leisure and Hospitality led job losses in April, the sector led job gains in June, increasing payrolls by 292,500. This sector accounted for 52% of all job gains in California for the month. Both Accommodation and Food Services (242,500) and Arts and Entertainment (50,000) added to their payrolls by healthy margins in June. However, Leisure and Hospitality has significant ground to make-up, with payrolls falling 30% from June 2019 to June 2020. The re-implementation of restrictions on inside dining and bars will likely negatively affect the industry in July.   
  • The easing of public health mandates also allowed a significant number of Retail establishments to open their doors, which increased payrolls by 71,300 in June. Other Services – which includes hair and nail salons – also benefited from the easing of public health mandates, adding 27,700 positions during the month. However, the reimplementation of businesses closures will hit Retail Trade and Other Services in July and August.
  • Sectors that were not as impacted by the public health mandates also expanded in June. Construction (+26,800) and Manufacturing (+23,400) grew by significant margin, and importantly, these gains should not be impacted by the reimplementation of closures. These sectors also have ground to make up before returning to pre-recession levels, however, with payrolls in Construction (-4.5%) and Manufacturing (-7.6%) down over the last year.
  • Government was the only sector to post declines in June as payrolls decreased by 36,300 positions during the month. State Government was responsible for the bulk of the declines, with payrolls falling by 30,200 in June. Government positions have been slightly more insulated from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic than those in the private sector but are still down 7.6% over the last year.
  • Regionally, job increases were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the biggest increase, where payrolls grew by 154,900 during the month. Orange County (68,200), San Diego (51,600), and the Inland Empire (43,800) also added a significant number of jobs during the month. Over the past year, Orange County (-11.7%) experienced the steepest job losses in the region, measured by percentage decrease, followed by Ventura (-10.3%), Los Angeles (MD) (-10.3%), San Diego (-10.3%), and the Inland Empire (-9.7%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) and San Jose experienced the largest increases, where payrolls each expanded by 37,200 positions in June. The East Bay (27,300), Santa Rosa (8,500), San Rafael (MD) (5,500), Napa (3,800), and Vallejo (2,800) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Over the past year, Vallejo (-12.6%) had the steepest declines in the region, followed by the East Bay (-12.1%), San Francisco (MD) (-10.9%), and San Rafael (MD) (-10.5%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 23,400 positions. Payrolls in Fresno (10,600), Bakersfield (9,900), Modesto (7,600), Stockton (7,500), and Visalia (5,300) increased as well. Over the last year, Yuba (-11.4%) had the steepest declines followed by Modesto (-10.4%), Sacramento (-9.3%), Madera (-9.2%), Bakersfield (-9.0%), Chico, (-8.5%), and Redding (-8.5%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara added the largest number of jobs, with payrolls increasing by 7,100 during the month. Payrolls in Salinas (6,600), San Luis Obispo (2,500), and Santa Cruz (2,400) also increased during the month. From a year-over-year perspective, San Luis Obispo (-15.9%) shed positions at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (-14.8%), Salinas (-13.5%), and Santa Barbara (-11.5%).

By Beacon Economics, an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. This analysis was authored by Taner Osman and Brian Vanderplas. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com and www.ucreconomicforecast.org.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Career & Workplace

California Job Growth Sees Progress; State Accounts for One-Quarter of All Jobs Added in the Nation

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Labor Force Grows But Long Term Struggle With Worker Supply Continues

 California’s labor market continued to expand in April, with total nonfarm employment in the state growing by 67,000 positions over the month, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. March’s gains were also revised up to 11,900 in the latest numbers, a 3,200 increase from the preliminary estimate of 8,700.

“California accounted for roughly one-quarter of the jobs added in the nation during April,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “Despite all the talk of tech-sector lay-offs, the state’s economy has had a strong start to the year, adding jobs at a quicker rate than the nation as a whole.”

As of April 2023, California has recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 365,400 more people employed in the state compared to February 2020, the month before pandemic-related employment losses occurred. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.1% since the pre-pandemic peak compared to a 2.2% increase nationally. Annually, California increased payrolls by 2.4% from April 2022 to April 2023, trailing the 2.6% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in the latest numbers, which is elevated relative to the 3.4% rate in the United States overall. California is continuing to struggle with its labor supply, which grew by 32,700 in April, an increase of 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 196,400 workers, a 1.0% decline.

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were broad based. Health Care led the way in April, with payrolls expanding by 18,200 in that sector, an increase of 0.7% on a month-over-month basis. In other words, Health Care accounted for just over one in four of the net jobs added in the state in April. Health Care payrolls are now up 5.3% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Leisure and Hospitality  was the next best performing sector, adding 13,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.6%. Leisure and Hospitality payrolls are now down just 1.1% since February 2020 and they are on track to fully recover in the coming months.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (5,800 or 0.7%), Retail Trade (5,400 or 0.3%), Government  (4,500 or 0.2%), Other Services  (4,000 or 0.7%), and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,800 or 0.3%).
  • Payrolls decreased in only two sectors in April, and these declines were minor. The only sectors with job losses were Wholesale Trade (-900 or -0.1%) and Mining and Logging (-100 or -0.5%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 21,500 (0.5%) during the month. Orange County (8,900 or 0.5%), the Inland Empire (4,400 or 0.3%), San Diego (4,200 or 0.3%), Ventura (900 or 0.3%), and El Centro (100 or 0.2%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, El Centro (3.4%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (3.1%), San Diego (3.0%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.5%), Ventura (2.0%), and the Inland Empire (1.0%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, the East Bay experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 6,400 (0.5%) positions in April. San Francisco (MD)  (1,600 or 0.1%), San Rafael (MD) (1,100 or 1.0%), Santa Rosa (1,000 or 0.5%), and Vallejo (800 or 0.6%) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Over the past 12 months, Napa (3.5%) experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Jose (3.1%), Santa Rosa (3.0%), San Francisco (MD) (2.9%), Vallejo (2.4%), the East Bay (1.9%), and San Rafael (MD) (1.3%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 6,900 (0.6%) positions in April. Payrolls in Modesto (1,200 or 0.6%), Stockton (1,200 or 0.4%), Bakersfield (900 or 0.3%), Fresno (500 or 0.1%), Visalia (400 or 0.3%), Merced (300 or 0.4%), and Yuba (300 or 0.6%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, Yuba (3.8%) had the fastest growth, followed by Hanford (3.6%), Fresno (3.2%), Madera (3.1%), Redding (3.1%), Visalia (3.0%), Modesto (2.6%), Sacramento (2.5%), and Stockton (2.2%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Salinas (700 or 0.5%) added the largest number of jobs. Santa Cruz (300 or 0.3%) and Santa Barbara (300 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From April 2022 to April 2023, Salinas (3.78%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (3.4%), San Luis Obispo (2.9%), and Santa Barbara (2.5%).
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Career & Workplace

Morongo to Host Two Job Fairs in May

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The Morongo Casino Resort & Spa is seeking to fill dozens of positions across the property for nearly all departments.

The AAA-Four Diamond Morongo Casino Resort & Spa is preparing to meet surging summer demand by hosting two job fairs in May. The events will cover dozens of positions across the resort and its restaurants.

Set to take place in the new Marketplace food hall, the job fairs will occur on the 2nd and 16th:

  • May 2, 2023, 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. in the Marketplace food hall
  • May 16, 2023, 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. in the Marketplace food hall

“As we approach the summer season, we’re excited to bring on new team members to support our consistent growth and continue building a team that goes above and beyond for our guests,” said Richard St. Jean, Morongo’s Chief Operating Officer. “Those with hospitality and restaurant experience should consider joining us as we work together to exceed guest expectations and provide unforgettable experiences.”

The job fairs will include possible on-the-spot offers for several departments, including cash operations, count room, entertainment, food and beverage, hospitality, housekeeping, promotions, public safety and surveillance, and the Morongo Travel Center. Positions are also available at the Marketplace, a new upscale food hall by celebrity chef Fabio Viviani featuring seven gourmet eateries that allow diners to pay a single fee to experience cuisine from Italy, Mexico, South America, Asia, and the Southern United States.

Candidates are asked to complete an online application prior to attending the events, available at http://www.morongocasinoresort.com/employment.

Morongo offers competitive wages and benefits, including medical, dental and vision insurance options for full-time team members and dependents with affordable pricing, and life insurance options for full and part-time team members. Additional benefits include a 401(k) plan, vacation and jury duty pay, paid meal breaks and free meals. Team members receive discounts at Morongo restaurants and various enterprises, including Sage Spa, Canyon Lanes Bowling, and the Morongo Golf Club at Tukwet Canyon.

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Career & Workplace

California Storms Slow Jobs Growth in Key Sectors

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Unemployment Rate Remains Near A Historic Low But Still Higher Than Nation

California’s labor market grew slowly in March, with total nonfarm employment in the state expanding by just 8,700 positions, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics.

Recent extreme weather and flooding likely played a role in the slowdown as major storms hit California during the survey week and impacted sectors including Construction and Real Estate. February’s gains were also revised down to 21,800 in the latest numbers, a 10,500 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 32,300.

“Given the adverse weather last month, it’s difficult to get a true read on how California’s labor market actually performed,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “Interestingly, while labor markets in inland communities had been outperforming coastal communities since the start of the pandemic, we are now starting to see these differences level out, with stronger job growth in some coastal communities.”

Statewide, as of February 2023, there were 295,200 more people employed in California compared to February 2020, the pre-pandemic peak. Total nonfarm employment in the state grew 1.7% over this time, compared to a 2.1% increase in the United States as a whole. Annually, California payrolls increased by 2.5% from March 2022 to March 2023, trailing the 2.7% national increase over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in March 2023. While this is near historic lows, the state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the United States overall (3.5%). California continues to struggle with its labor supply, which grew by 32,700 in March, an increase of 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 229,600 workers, a 1.2% decline.

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were mixed as extreme weather impacted several of California’s job sectors. Health Care led the gains in March, with payrolls expanding by 7,400, an increase of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis. Health Care jobs are now up 4.8% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Government (6,900 or 0.3%), Information (5,400 or 0.9%), Leisure and Hospitality (4,900 or 0.2%), and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (4,300 or 0.5%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in March. Due to the major storms that hit the state, Construction posted the largest declines, with payrolls falling by 8,200 during the month, a 0.9% decline on a month-over-month basis.
  • Other sectors with significant job losses included Administrative Support (-5,000 or -0.4%), Real Estate (-2,400 or -0.8%), Finance and Insurance (-1,300 or -0.2%), and Other Services (-1,200 or -0.2%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 14,800 (0.3%) during the month. San Diego (3,100 or 0.2%), Ventura (1,200 or 0.4%), and El Centro (300 or 0.5%) also saw their payrolls jump. In contrast, Orange County (-2,400 or -0.1%) and the Inland Empire (-2,300 or -0.1%) experienced payrolls drop in March. Over the past year, El Centro (3.6%) enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Diego (3.2%), Orange County (2.8%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.5%), Ventura (1.9%), and the Inland Empire (0.7%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Jose experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 2,200 (0.2%) positions in March. Santa Rosa (300 or 0.1%) and Napa (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls expand. In contrast, the East Bay (-6,400 or -0.5%), San Francisco (MD) (-1,400 or -0.1%), and San Rafael (MD) (-400 or -0.4%) all had payrolls drop in March. Over the past 12 months, Napa (4.5%) has experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Jose (3.5%), San Francisco (MD) (3.2%), Santa Rosa (2.9%), Vallejo (1.3%), the East Bay (1.0%), and San Rafael (MD) (0.4%).
  • In the Central Valley, Bakersfield experienced the largest monthly increase in March as payrolls expanded by 400 (0.1%) positions. Payrolls in Sacramento (200) and Fresno (100) increased as well. In contrast, Yuba (-400 or -0.8%), Merced (-300 or -0.4%), Redding (-200 or -0.3%), Madera (-200 or -0.5%), Visalia (-100 or -0.1%), and Modesto (-100 or -0.1%) all saw declines. Over the past year, Hanford (3.6%) has enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Fresno (3.4%), Visalia (2.8%), Yuba (2.6%), Stockton (2.4%), Redding (2.3%), Madera (2.1%), Modesto (2.1%) and Sacramento (2.0%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Salinas (800 or 0.5%) and Santa Barbara (800 or 0.4%) added the largest number of jobs. San Luis Obispo (500 or 0.4%) and Santa Cruz (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls increase. From March 2022 to March 2023, San Luis Obispo (3.7%) has added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (3.5%), Salinas (3.3%), and Santa Barbara (2.0%).
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