Connect with us

Banking & Financial Services

Resiliency Over Recovery: Safeguarding Your Business Ahead of Economic Downturn

Published

on

Opinion

By Anthony Turner, Market Executive of Global Commercial Banking at Bank of America

Friday, July 31st — Even in the strongest of economic environments, running a business is challenging. The effects of the coronavirus pandemic — both personal and economic — have made companies of all sizes rethink their short- and long-term plans. Many businesses in the Inland Empire, particularly in the transportation and warehouse industries, have flourished amid the current business landscape. Meanwhile, those in our hospitality and restaurant industries continue to face unique challenges due to COVID-19.

The unemployment rate for the Inland Empire has remained below the state’s average. Still, many businesses don’t know if they’ll be open, closed or just operating differently in either the short or long term. Many are struggling with cash flow, tightened access to credit, rattled customers and suppliers, and the overall survival of their organizations.

Following guidelines for the safety of your employees and customers should be the first priority for businesses. Next, taking a close look at your own operations and carefully reviewing internal processes and key relationships may prompt you to make changes that could make your business more efficient, flexible and resilient. As you respond to the impacts of COVID-19, here are some challenges and key steps to keep in mind:

Reassess your cash flow

During both good and bad times, lack of cash flow is often cited as a top reason small businesses fail. Even companies with steady sales can still falter without sufficient liquidity to meet payroll, pay suppliers and keep the lights on.

To safeguard against temporary shortfalls:

  • Speak frequently with customers and suppliers to stay aware of any potential changes in their businesses that could ultimately affect yours
  • Review how reliably your customers pay what they owe and create a watch list of those who consistently fall behind. A little probing may help you address issues proactively.

Assess your credit situation

Credit can be a lifesaver during challenging financial times. During the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001, the growth rate for commercial banking loans to businesses dropped to zero, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

In a difficult economy, lenders may be especially cautious about companies they don’t know well. In fact, most lenders want to know how a business has performed over an entire business cycle. For example, during prosperous times, has your business made capital expenditures to grow? During less prosperous times, have you responded well to downturns? Knowing that your business has weathered challenges and responded effectively may give a lender the confidence to extend credit.

Give your company “survival training”

As we’ve seen recently, unexpected adverse events can devastate businesses. By 2018, business cybersecurity breaches had increased by 67 percent over five years, and during the first seven months of 2019, the U.S. experienced six climate and weather catastrophes with losses of more than $1 billion each. One in four small businesses fail to reopen after a natural disaster.

Creating worst-case scenario plans can help prepare your company to withstand adverse events and might even mean the difference between rebuilding and going out of business. Consider putting plans into place that protect your business against threats, such as remote device theft or loss, security breach or malware.

Keep tabs on expenses

During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, nearly 75 percent of company leaders identified cost cutting as a top priority. However, trimming expenses across the board without carefully prioritizing needs during a crisis can backfire. Instead, consider taking stock of your processes during times when things are operating smoothly, from front-line to back-office functions, to determine what kind of savings might be possible when needed.

Work through “what if” scenarios ahead of potential downturns to determine the least painful and most effective reductions that won’t create new problems for the business. Consider renegotiating agreements with suppliers or adjusting payment terms to align with revenue cycles.

In addition, automate where possible. An estimated 45 percent of jobs now performed by people in the U.S., at an annual cost of $2 trillion, could be automated with existing technologies. Administrative tasks like payroll and other record-keeping can often be digitized at minimal cost. Automation can be an opportunity to re-train or re-focus employees on more value-added areas of your business, without having to reduce headcount.

Ongoing business success today demands resilience amid disruptions.. The more you do to plan essential aspects of your company’s financial future, the more control you’ll have over your and your business’ future success.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

Banking & Financial Services

All Eyes On The Fed… But Will It Change The US Forecast?

Published

on

Federal Reserve Policies At The Root Of Recent Bank Collapses; California: A Better Recovery Than We Thought!

The recession forecasted by so many still hasn’t shown up and is looking less and less likely to anytime soon, according to Beacon Economics‘ latest outlook for the United States and California. Moreover, the recent bank failures that have been capturing headlines are being ‘wrongly viewed’ as heralding a coming downturn, something that misses the actual drivers behind the collapses and that key economic data refutes.

“These bank failures are not a reflection of an unhealthy U.S. economy, they are all about Federal Reserve policy,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “Sad by true; the body that is supposed to be the wise shepherd of the nation’s banking system is largely responsible for creating the very stressors that caused Silicon Valley Bank to fail, and the run on others to begin.”

According to the outlook, the U.S. banking system, overall, is the victim of quixotic and rapid changes in Fed policy over the last three years as they have tried to maintain both full employment and price stability – which can be mutually exclusive. “In their existential panic over full employment during the pandemic, the Fed destabilized prices by injecting historic amounts of cash into the economy; in their existential panic over price instability, they destabilized the banking system through interest rate increases,” said Thornberg.

The new outlook acknowledges that the sudden crosscurrents from the bank failures have made the forecast fuzzier because stress in the banking system will eventually show up in the broader economy in the form of tightening credit. However, the new forecast does not believe those stressors, on their own, will rise to the level of a recession. “Cash is still king in the U.S. economy,” said Thornberg. “But if the Fed decides to continue raising interest rates in its quest to slow inflation, it will do more damage to the bank credit industry and that will trigger negative consequences for the overall economy.”

Assuming the Fed slows their roll, which they’ve shown some signs of doing, Beacon Economics is expecting slow growth and no recession in the near-term future. The forecast has real U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter coming in between 1% and 2%, although the margin of error has increased given the policy uncertainty.

In terms of the macro economy, the new outlook points to copious evidence of its health: unemployment in the nation remains rock bottom, consumer spending continues despite inflation, earnings growth is still running above 6% for the median worker, U.S. household net worth remains 30% ($30 trillion) higher than it was pre-pandemic, banks are not experiencing an increase in problem loans, and interest rates have started to stabilize causing asset markets to do the same.

In California, the news grew rosier this month after the state released its annual employment revisions, although a declining workforce continues to hamper economic growth. The revision shows that California recovered more and faster from the pandemic’s job losses than previously estimated: There are 197,000 more people employed in the state today than there were pre-pandemic. The original estimates had the gain at a mere 70,000.

However, in terms of the percentage increase, California’s job growth has been about five times slower than states such as Florida and Texas. “The underperformance we’ve seen is certainly not due to any unwillingness on the part of the state’s employers to hire workers,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “Rather, California’s labor force contracted during the pandemic and there are well over 300,000 fewer workers in the state today than there were before COVID hit; there are simply not enough workers to fill the number of job openings.”

Deeply linked to its declining workforce is California’s famously expensive housing market, where prices surged an astounding 41% during the early days of the pandemic. Today, higher interest rates have led to a collapse in demand and home sales have returned to their pre-pandemic trough. However, home prices remain 27% above where they were pre-pandemic and the new forecast only expects them to fall by 6.3% in 2023. “Given California’s acute long-term housing shortage, it’s not surprising that price drops will be limited,” said Osman. “And this isn’t anything like the Great Recession because consumer balance sheets are so much stronger today and unemployment rates are at all-time lows.”

Continue Reading

Banking & Financial Services

Why the Bank Failures Don’t Change the Economic Outlook (Mostly); Recession Remains Unlikely in 2023, Says Leading Forecast

Published

on

Federal Reserve Policies At The Root Of Recent Bank Collapses; California: A Better Recovery Than We Thought!

The recession forecasted by so many still hasn’t shown up and is looking less and less likely to anytime soon, according to Beacon Economics‘ latest outlook for the United States and California. Moreover, the recent bank failures that have been capturing headlines are being ‘wrongly viewed’ as heralding a coming downturn, something that misses the actual drivers behind the collapses and that key economic data refutes.

“These bank failures are not a reflection of an unhealthy U.S. economy, they are all about Federal Reserve policy,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “Sad by true; the body that is supposed to be the wise shepherd of the nation’s banking system is largely responsible for creating the very stressors that caused Silicon Valley Bank to fail, and the run on others to begin.”

According to the outlook, the U.S. banking system, overall, is the victim of quixotic and rapid changes in Fed policy over the last three years as they have tried to maintain both full employment and price stability – which can be mutually exclusive. “In their existential panic over full employment during the pandemic, the Fed destabilized prices by injecting historic amounts of cash into the economy; in their existential panic over price instability, they destabilized the banking system through interest rate increases,” said Thornberg.

The new outlook acknowledges that the sudden crosscurrents from the bank failures have made the forecast fuzzier because stress in the banking system will eventually show up in the broader economy in the form of tightening credit. However, the new forecast does not believe those stressors, on their own, will rise to the level of a recession. “Cash is still king in the U.S. economy,” said Thornberg. “But if the Fed decides to continue raising interest rates in its quest to slow inflation, it will do more damage to the bank credit industry and that will trigger negative consequences for the overall economy.”

Assuming the Fed slows their roll, which they’ve shown some signs of doing, Beacon Economics is expecting slow growth and no recession in the near-term future. The forecast has real U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter coming in between 1% and 2%, although the margin of error has increased given the policy uncertainty.

In terms of the macro economy, the new outlook points to copious evidence of its health: unemployment in the nation remains rock bottom, consumer spending continues despite inflation, earnings growth is still running above 6% for the median worker, U.S. household net worth remains 30% ($30 trillion) higher than it was pre-pandemic, banks are not experiencing an increase in problem loans, and interest rates have started to stabilize causing asset markets to do the same.

In California, the news grew rosier this month after the state released its annual employment revisions, although a declining workforce continues to hamper economic growth. The revision shows that California recovered more and faster from the pandemic’s job losses than previously estimated: There are 197,000 more people employed in the state today than there were pre-pandemic. The original estimates had the gain at a mere 70,000.

However, in terms of the percentage increase, California’s job growth has been about five times slower than states such as Florida and Texas. “The underperformance we’ve seen is certainly not due to any unwillingness on the part of the state’s employers to hire workers,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “Rather, California’s labor force contracted during the pandemic and there are well over 300,000 fewer workers in the state today than there were before COVID hit; there are simply not enough workers to fill the number of job openings.”

Deeply linked to its declining workforce is California’s famously expensive housing market, where prices surged an astounding 41% during the early days of the pandemic. Today, higher interest rates have led to a collapse in demand and home sales have returned to their pre-pandemic trough. However, home prices remain 27% above where they were pre-pandemic and the new forecast only expects them to fall by 6.3% in 2023. “Given California’s acute long-term housing shortage, it’s not surprising that price drops will be limited,” said Osman. “And this isn’t anything like the Great Recession because consumer balance sheets are so much stronger today and unemployment rates are at all-time lows.”

View the new The Beacon Outlook including full forecast tables here.

Continue Reading

Banking & Financial Services

Bank of America Private Bank Announces New Inland Desert Market, Names Patricia Chavez as Market Executive

Published

on

Reflecting the growing wealth and economic expansion of the Inland Empire, Bank of America Private Bank today announced Patricia Chavez has been named as the Market Executive for the Private Bank’s newly created Inland Desert market. This market will serve Private Bank clients across the Inland Empire from offices in Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Ontario, and Riverside. Chavez will oversee a team of dedicated private client advisors who deliver custom investment management, wealth structuring, estate planning, philanthropy, private business financing, banking, credit and trust service needs to high net worth individuals, families and institutions.

“We believe Patricia’s extensive leadership and experience make her the perfect candidate to lead this market,” said Mark Benson, Private Bank Managing Director/ West Division Executive. “Throughout the Private Bank’s long history, we have helped our clients by providing personalized investment management, credit and banking solutions and as a bridge between generations. Under Patricia’s leadership, the local team will continue to deliver private banking capabilities to help clients create a legacy that gives meaning to their wealth today and in the future.”

Chavez is a third-generation Bank of America employee who began her career as a teller in La Mirada in 1989.  She most recently served as Managing Director and Philanthropic Market Executive for the West and Central North Divisions for Bank of America Private Bank, and prior to that was a Business Banking executive for the Inland Empire for 14 years. She serves on the board of trustees for the Autry Museum of the American West, sits on the College of Business and Public Management Advisory Board of the University of La Verne, and previously served on the boards of Habitat for Humanity Riverside, Foothill Family Shelter Upland and the Inland Empire Economic Partnership.

Chavez earned her M.B.A. with a concentration in Finance from the University of La Verne, her Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Marketing from California State University Fullerton, and is a graduate of Pacific Coast Banking School.  Last year, she was recognized as a “Top Woman of Influence in Banking” by the Los Angeles Business Journal and as a “Latina to Watch” by the Association of Latino Professionals For America (ALPFA).

Continue Reading

Business Journal Newsletter



Events Calendar

« November 2023 » loading...
M T W T F S S
30
31
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
1
2
3

Trending