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Vaccination Ramp-Up will Herald Exceptional Economic Growth in 2021-2022, Says Leading Forecast; Relief in Sight for Hardest Hit Sectors

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Craving ‘Normal Activity’, Consumers Will Drive Growth; Trouble On The Horizon: The Cost Of Excessive Monetary And Fiscal Stimulus

The economic recovery from the historic COVID-19 pandemic that began last year regained steam at the start of 2021, and record savings and hot financial markets indicate an even more accelerated upturn will play out across the rest of the year. According to Beacon Economics’ latest outlook for the U.S. and California, the pandemic exacted its heaviest and most persistent damage within job markets, but a quickened pace of vaccinations and the easing of health-mandated restrictions nationwide is setting the stage for a major hiring bounce.

At the start of the pandemic the U.S. saw its payroll workforce decline by approximately 22 million jobs as the unemployment rate soared to 14.8%. The damage was not evenly distributed with some 40% of the losses occurring in the Leisure and Hospitality sector alone. But as of March 2021, 62% of the lost jobs have been recovered and the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to 6%. Moreover, the job openings rate is currently higher than it was pre-pandemic, and wages among workers who have kept their jobs have continued to grow at a normal pace.

“As good as this data is, we’re not there yet. But even the most damaged industries are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel while industries that were essentially unscathed are facing tight job markets and having trouble hiring people,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “Additionally, the depths to which badly affected labor markets sank have created conditions for exceptional growth as restrictions on activity – the only thing preventing hard-hit industries from expanding – recede.”

The new forecast estimates that the nation’s unemployment rate will shrink to 5.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and to 4.9% by the end of the year.

Driven by consumer demand, other parts of the U.S. economy have already rebounded sharply, even flourishing throughout the pandemic. “Frustrated consumers who were denied an opportunity to eat at a favorite restaurant or fly to Disney World, spent unused dollars in other areas of the economy such as buying houses, campers, and home goods,” said Thornberg. “This is why worker earnings have recovered, job openings have remained remarkably high, and there was a surge in corporate profits – to their highest point ever in the second half of last year.”

While U.S. GDP experienced its largest annual decline in decades in 2020, these losses will be offset and the economy will likely return to trend this year – driven primarily by consumers, according to the new outlook.

Like the nation, California’s pace of vaccination has ramped up and the easing of restrictions will accelerate the state’s labor market recovery (assuming health criteria is met, the state is scheduled to fully open on June 15). As of March, California had 8.6% fewer jobs compared to pre-pandemic levels, while the national economy had 5.5% fewer jobs. “The state finds itself in a deeper hole with respect to jobs lost than is the case nationally,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “But that relative underperformance will likely translate into higher job gains in 2021.”

The new outlook estimates that California’s unemployment rate will shrink to 7.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and to 4.4% by the end of the year.

Also like the nation, while the state’s job recovery lags, many aspects of California’s economy have returned to their pre-pandemic trends, and some, such as the housing market, boomed over the past year. Home prices in the state increased 15% from the 4th quarter of 2019 to the 4th quarter of 2020, compared to just 5% growth from the 4th quarter of 2018 to the 4th quarter of 2019. Moreover, a severe shortage of housing supply in California will continue to place upward pressure on home prices in the year ahead, said Osman.

Additional Key Findings:

  • In California, sales of single-family homes have also increased, jumping by 24% from the 4th quarter of 2019 to the 4th quarter of 2020. This rate of sales is unsustainable, however, as supply and inventory constraints will act as significant headwinds.
  • The economic fallout from labor market losses in both the U.S. and California disproportionally affected the lowest wage earners. An unprecedented policy response by the federal and state governments went some way towards dulling the pain.
  • This year, the Federal deficit will be on the order of $4 trillion. In two just two years, the United States has issued $7 trillion in new debt—an amount equal to 30% of the nation’s GDP, or $24,000 for every person in the United States under the age of 70. This threatens to be an overstimulation and could have seriously distorting economic consequences in the future.
  • U.S. commercial bank deposits mushroomed during the pandemic, increasing by $3 trillion in 2020 compared to 2019 levels.
  • Over the past year, the nation’s household savings rate shot up to levels never seen in U.S. history: 25% in the 2nd quarter of 2020 and a still high 13.4% by the end of last year. This was driven by the fiscal stimulus but also by the fact that spending dropped significantly.

View the newly designed The Beacon Outlook here.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Inland Empire Celebrates Entrepreneurial Excellence at Spirit Awards Gala

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Honoring Visionary Leaders Driving Innovation and Community Impact

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala, held at the Riverside Convention Center, celebrated the brightest entrepreneurial talent across the Inland Empire. Among the evening’s finalists was Edward Ornelas, Jr., President & CEO of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, who was honored in the Social Entrepreneur category for his outstanding leadership and commitment to the region.

Although Ornelas did not win, the Social Entrepreneur award went to Cesar Navarrete, President & CEO of Children’s Fund, a proud Chamber member. “Being a finalist alongside such remarkable leaders is an incredible honor,” said Ornelas. “I am especially thrilled to see Cesar, a Chamber member, recognized for the transformative work he’s doing to improve the lives of children in our community. It’s a proud moment for us all.”

Another highlight of the evening was the recognition of Hilda Kennedy, President & Founder of AMPAC Business Capital, another Chamber member, who was awarded the Top Female Entrepreneur category. Hilda’s leadership at AMPAC, a mission-driven business lender, has been instrumental in empowering small businesses and fostering economic growth across the region.

“It’s amazing to see leaders like Hilda and Cesar being celebrated for their contributions,” added Ornelas. “Their achievements underscore the talent and dedication of entrepreneurs in our Chamber and across the Inland Empire. They are setting the standard for excellence and impact in their fields.”

The evening also featured the prestigious “Best of the Best” Award, sponsored by Best Best & Krieger LLP, which was awarded to Mauro Gomez, Chief Growth Officer of Anita’s Mexican Foods Corp.. Based in San Bernardino, Anita’s Mexican Foods has grown from modest beginnings into a leader in the food production industry under Gomez’s strategic direction.

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala continues to shine a spotlight on the transformative work of Inland Empire entrepreneurs, celebrating their innovation, resilience, and commitment to the community.

For more information about the Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards, visit https://www.spiritawardsie.com.

For more details about the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce and its members, visit www.iechamber.org.

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Inland Empire Chamber President Edward Ornelas, Jr. Named Finalist for Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards

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Celebrating Leadership and Innovation: Ornelas Recognized for Advancing Business Growth and Social Impact in the Inland Empire.

Edward Ornelas Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce and owner of the Inland Empire Business Journal, has been named a finalist in the famed 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards. Ornelas is honored in the Social Entrepreneur category for his remarkable leadership and vision in fostering business growth and development across the Inland Empire. The award ceremony will take place on November 21, 2024, at the Riverside Convention Center, celebrating the best of entrepreneurship throughout the region.

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards, often regarded as the “Oscars of Business” in the Inland Empire, recognizes the innovation, leadership, and impact of outstanding entrepreneurs across various sectors. Ornelas joins a select group of 34 finalists, each representing the entrepreneurial spirit and resilience that define the I.E. business community. The Social Entrepreneur category highlights individuals like Ornelas, whose work goes beyond profit to positively impact society.

In his role as President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, Ornelas has been a powerful advocate for the business community, connecting small businesses with essential resources and creating opportunities for growth. As the owner of the IE Business Journal, the only publication in the region dedicated solely to business news, Ornelas has provided a platform for local businesses to thrive by sharing their stories and promoting their success. His innovative, forward-thinking approach to marketing has earned him a reputation as a “visionary” and a “get-things-done” leader across both public and private sectors.

“I’m deeply honored to be recognized as a finalist for the 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards. This nomination is a reflection of the incredible businesses and community leaders across the Inland Empire who inspire me every day. At the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, our mission is to empower businesses and foster economic growth, and this recognition highlights the collective efforts of our entire community. I’m excited for what the future holds as we continue to work together to make a lasting impact,” said Ornelas.

Other notable finalists for the 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards include leaders in healthcare innovation, green technology, and digital transformation. Each finalist, selected by a distinguished panel of judges, represents the best in their respective industries and contributes to the Inland Empire’s continued growth as a hub of innovation and entrepreneurship.

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards is an annual event that brings together business leaders, community advocates, and entrepreneurs to celebrate the entrepreneurial excellence that drives the region’s economy. This year’s event promises to be a night of inspiration and recognition, showcasing the achievements of finalists like Ornelas, who continue to elevate the Inland Empire’s business landscape.

For more information about the Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards and to see the full list of finalists, visit www.spiritawardsie.com

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CBRE Opens Newly Renovated, Tech-Enabled Office in the Inland Empire

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The office is designed to support hybrid work and employee wellbeing

CBRE announced the opening of its new 10,159-sq.-ft. office suite on the ground floor of 4141 Inland Empire Blvd., in Ontario, Calif.

The office is part of CBRE’s Workplace360 program, which features innovative office designs and functionality, including in-office technology and a wider variety of collaborative spaces designed to support hybrid working. CBRE launched its Workplace360 program over a decade ago in its downtown LA office. Since then, the company has opened more than 100 Workplace360 offices worldwide, continually updating the program as work habits have changed over the years, especially with the increase in hybrid work.

“Our newly renovated space provides us with a great opportunity to deliver a collaborative, experience-driven workplace that supports hybrid work,” said Ian Britton, managing director and market leader for CBRE in Inland Empire. “Our Workplace360 office will also serve as a showpiece to help clients conceptualize flexible work strategies for their employees.”

The renovated office has several different work areas including focus, huddle, living, and conference rooms. The open-space lobby, known as the “Heart,” features a variety of seating and a communal space for collaboration. A large 86” media display with a speaker system welcomes employees, visitors, and clients and assists with onsite events.

New office technology, including touch-enabled video conference rooms, allows for hybrid work collaboration between in-office and remote employees and clients. Additionally, the Mt. Baldy conference room has Liquid Galaxy, a geospatial visualization platform set across large format curved screens providing a cinematic presentation experience. This room has an operable wall that opens to the Heart, creating an onsite event space.

A cornerstone of the Workplace360 model is its free-address approach, in which there is no dedicated seating. The free-address approach allows employees who are in the office on a given day to use any workstation or office.

The office’s design led by CBRE Design Collective, took inspiration from the Inland Empire’s orange groves and mountainous landscapes of Mt. Baldy. Images of Route 66 from local photographer VC Torneden features the role the highway plays in the area. 

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