By Press Release
How Long Can The U.S. Economic Expansion Last? Leading Forecast Sees Growth Through 2021

Health Care, Hospitality Industries Driving California Job Growth; Home Price Appreciation in State Showing Signs of Exhaustion
News Release — December 11, 2019 — Los Angeles, CA — Looking back at the turmoil and off-putting theatrics that have characterized U.S. politics for much of 2019, one item that will not make the year’s ‘list of negatives’ is the health of the nation’s economy—and that isn’t changing any time soon, according to a new forecast released by Beacon Economics. Today, the U.S. economy is in the midst of the longest expansion in recorded history and, despite dour headlines to the contrary, is expected to continue along that same growth trajectory for at least the next two years.
“This outlook puts us squarely on the bullish side of things and outside mainstream opinion, but the facts as we see them simply don’t support a more negative narrative,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “Currently, there is little sign of the kind of collapsing imbalances or rapid shifts in aggregate demand that would be capable of pushing the economy into a downturn or even a protracted slow growth slump.” According to the new forecast, U.S. GDP will see 2% plus real growth in 2020 and will move towards 2.5% real growth in 2021. To date, the first three quarters of 2019 have averaged 2.3% growth.
This should not imply that there aren’t stressors on the economy warns the outlook, but rather that nothing on the current horizon rises to the level of imbalance or shock that could cause a downturn. However, Thornberg cautions that the outlook could change and that it is critical to maintaining vigilance in monitoring economic trends and activity given the unpredictability and hyper-partisan nature of current U.S. policymaking.
Moreover, while the nation unnecessarily flirts with short-run disasters, looming, long-run threats clearly imperil the nation’s economic health. “The healthcare cost crisis, the desperate need for pension and entitlement reform, dangerous trends in wealth inequality, among other issues are serious and growing risks that are largely being ignored and will come back to haunt us—the only question is when,” said Thornberg.
Like the nation as a whole, California’s economy also continues along a steady growth path, even hitting a number of significant milestones in the last quarter. To date, the state’s unemployment rate has dipped to a historically low 3.9% as both worker wages and employment have reached all-time highs. “The longer the current expansion persists, the closer we are to the next recession,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “But business cycles do not die of old age and, at present, there are few signs of a slowdown in the state’s economy.”
Key Findings:
- Much of the confidence surrounding the health of the U.S. economy lies with the consumer. A brief lull in spending growth at the end of 2018 reversed itself by the end of the first quarter of 2019. Consumer spending is now growing at roughly the same pace as U.S. GDP.
- Falling interest rates are the reason the nation’s housing market is starting to bounce back with sales of new and existing homes up and home price appreciation beginning to accelerate. Moreover, none of the conditions for a major housing bust are in play… we’ve seen clean mortgage lending, no excess supply being built, and increases in overall affordability as measured by the housing cost share of income for U.S. households.
- As a result of record-tight labor markets, many U.S. workers have seen significant jumps in earnings. In 2014, compensation for employees made up 60% of national income compared to 63% in 2019. Notably, most of this income has shifted from corporate profits, which fell from a near-record high of over 14% of all national income in 2014 to less than 12% this year.
- The one weak spot in the nation’s GDP data in 2019 was in business investment, however, spending is down in this area for a number of narrow reasons, but not many general ones. Weak export data has played some role in slowing investment, but overall, the impact of the trade war with China has been highly overrated.
- Employment in California keeps on soaring with the state economy adding 308,000 jobs (a 1.8% growth rate) from October 2018 to October 2019. Fully 40% of this job growth came from just two sectors, Healthcare and Social Assistance, and Leisure and Hospitality, indicative of a growing elderly population and strong consumer health. Notably, the rate of job growth in the nation as a whole, at 1.4%, was lower than in the state over this period.
- Home price growth in California finally started to show signs of exhaustion over the past year. The median price for a single-family home in California grew 2.2%, which when adjusted for inflation, means that price growth has effectively been flat. This should not be surprising given the relentless pace of appreciation that has occurred in recent years, something that cannot realistically continue.
- Building needed! Building permits in California peaked in the first quarter of 2018 but turned negative in the third quarter—and have remained there throughout 2019. Constrained housing supply will continue to hinder home affordability and limit growth in the state’s labor force.
Download the full forecast here for additional insights.
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Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. This analysis was authored by Christopher Thornberg and Taner Osman. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com.
By Press Release
June 15th Foster Care & Adoption Virtual Online Orientation

Children’s Bureau is seeking foster families and now offers two virtual ways for individuals and/or couples to learn how to help children in foster care while reunifying with birth families or how to provide legal permanency by adoption.
If you or someone you know may be interested in learning more about becoming a foster or foster-adopt parent, join us on June 15th from 4:00 – 5:00 p.m. for an English online virtual orientation. To sign up, visit https://www.all4kids.org/foster-care-and-adoption-inquiry-form/ or call 661-289-4231 or 833-983-2837, or email Rfrecruitment@all4kids.org and a link to the meeting will be sent to you.
A Spanish Zoom Orientation is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. on July 20th for those who prefer Spanish.
Children’s Bureau partners with over 200 foster-adoptive families annually to help at-risk youth by giving them a home that is nearby and inclusive to their foster siblings. Lisa and Michael began their foster-adoptive journey by providing a stable home to a sibling set of three, two girls and a boy. They worked to keep the family together and have experienced a bond like no other. “If adoption is in your future, there is no need to look any further than our surrounding county. So many local children need a family. If you are wanting to “make a difference” with your life, consider adopting from foster care. You could be saving generations,” said Lisa.
In the 1940’s, Children’s Bureau opened adoption services and found homes for refugee children orphans from World War II. The agency continues to meet the needs by offering a wide array of programs in areas related to adoption such as foster care, prevention, and mental health. Children’s Bureau has multiple locations operating throughout Southern California.
“Right now, children in San Bernardino County who have experienced trauma and have been separated from their birth family need our help,” says Leslie Oropeza, Children’s Bureau Director of Foster Care and Adoption. “We are looking for families who can open their homes and hearts to these children. Families who have extra space and the willingness to keep them together. Statistics show siblings kept together in foster care and adoption do better later in life.
They heal quicker from their trauma, have better attachments, and develop healthy self-images,” she adds.
Children’s Bureau welcomes all individuals regardless of race, age, religion, disability, marital status, ethnic background, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression to become a resource for children. Qualifying families receive training and support throughout their journey. Foster Care and Adoption Programs are available in Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Ventura counties.
For information about Children’s Bureau and the other critical services the agency provides , visit all4kids.org. To stay connected with Family Foster Care and Adoption services, visit www.all4kids.org/foster.
By Press Release
City of San Bernardino Receives SCAG Sustainability Award for Its Clean Fleet Policy

The City of San Bernardino has received the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) Sustainability Award for Alternative Fuels and Infrastructure for its Zero Emission First – Clean Fleet Policy. The City was recognized at SCAG’s regional conference, held in Palm Desert. Mayor Helen Tran and Council Member Damon Alexander were on hand to receive the award.
“We are pleased and honored to be recognized by SCAG for our Clean Fleet Policy,” said San Bernardino Council Member Damon Alexander, who also sits on the SCAG Regional Council. “It not only speaks to San Bernardino’s commitment to sustainability but is a roadmap to make a difference.”
The award was one of seven sustainability awards presented by SCAG recognizing excellence and innovation to improve mobility, livability, prosperity, and sustainability. SCAG is the nation’s largest metropolitan planning organization, encompassing six counties (Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura), 191 cities, and 19 million people in an area covering more than 38,000 square miles.
San Bernardino’s Clean Fleet Policy was unanimously adopted by the City Council on December 7, 2022. It serves as the City’s first initiative to reduce emissions from its daily operations. The policy establishes a framework for transitioning the City’s fleet from gas powered vehicles to zero to low-emission vehicles. The policy represents San Bernardino’s commitment to environmental responsibility.
The core objectives of San Bernardino’s Clean Fleet Policy include:
- Procure new and replace existing fleet vehicles with alternative fuel vehicles, with a focus on procuring all electric vehicles.
- Optimize the fleet size by eliminating unused or underused vehicles through review and evaluation of vehicle utilization and redundancy reports.
- Limit the procurement of gasoline and/or diesel-powered vehicles.
- Execute a plan to expand the network of charging stations city-wide.
- Reduce greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants through the elimination of fossil fuel combustion.
- Decrease costs associated with fleet vehicle operations, which can be reinvested into the community.
The Clean Fleet Policy is the first of a series of strategies and initiatives the San Bernardino intends to pursue to support the City’s efforts to achieve net zero emissions in its operations.
By Press Release
CBRE Announces Dave & Buster’s Inks Lease at The River at Rancho Mirage

First location for the restaurant and entertainment chain in Coachella Valley to open in in the third quarter of 2023
CBRE announced Dave & Buster’s has signed a 22,982-square-foot lease at The River at Rancho Mirage, a premier retail shopping center in Rancho Mirage, California, and will open the location in the third quarter of 2023.
CBRE’s Marco Rossetti and Walter Pagel represent the landlord, CL Investment Group. CBRE’s Scott Riddles, Derek Fitch and Rob Crumly represented Dave & Busters.
Located at 71800 Highway 11 at the intersection of Bob Hope Drive in Riverside County, The River is a 227,000-square-foot premier lifestyle and entertainment center that serves as a shopping, dining and entertainment hub for the Rancho Mirage community. The intersection attracts over 67,500 daily. In addition, the property is centrally located within the Coachella Valley, an area that attracts an estimated 3.1 million visitors annually.
“The River’s award-winning design creates a one-of-a-kind ambiance in the heart of the Coachella Valley,” said Marco Rossetti, Vice President with CBRE. “Dave & Buster’s will bring in a different demographic than the typical retail shopper at The River.”
The River features a 1,100-foot, 1.7 million gallon “river” water feature, public sitting areas and walkways, and a 100-seat outdoor amphitheater. The River’s anchor tenants include a 15-screen, stadium-style Century Theatre cinema and seven full-service restaurants, including The Cheesecake Factory, P.F. Chang’s, and Yard House. In addition, The River has approximately 20,000 square feet of premium office space.
“Activity in the desert has significantly ramped up filling the community with patrons drawn to sports and entertainment. Dave & Buster’s will be a fantastic addition to The River, serving the corporate client, the vacationer, and the strong residential community within the desert,” said Walter Pagel, Senior Vice President with CBRE.
The Coachella Valley attracts various annual events, including the Coachella Valley Music & Arts Festival, Palm Springs International Film Festival, BNP Paribas Open, and Stagecoach Music Festival. The area has over 1,900 hotel rooms nearby including the Ritz Carlton, Westin Mission Hills and Marriott Rancho Las Palmas.
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