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ECONOMIC TURMOIL EXPECTED THROUGH SECOND QUARTER OF 2020

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From Best Case Scenario To Worst, COVID-19 Will Deliver A Blow, Says New Forecast

How Much Of A Blow Is Yet To Be Seen

March 20, 2020 — Just how much of an impact the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) will have on the global, U.S., and California economies is a monstrously ominous and looming question now facing government leaders, businesses, and individuals around the world. The uncertainty surrounding the spread, containment, and recovery rates of the disease, and the extremely fast moving nature of daily events, makes estimating the direct economic impact of the pandemic close to impossible, according to a new forecast released today by Beacon Economics and the UCR School Business Center for Economic Forecasting.

“This is unprecedented in nature and by far the worst threat facing the U.S. economic expansion since it began over a decade ago,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and Director of the Center for Forecasting. “Will it end the expansion for the year? Whatever the scenario, from best to worst, we are definitely going to see a serious hit in the first half of 2020.”

According to the new forecast, the sudden halt that has occurred in economic activity will cause unemployment claims to jump more quickly than ever before, slow home sales and business formation, reduce productivity, disrupt government revenue flows, and send ripples through the U.S. and global manufacturing base. “The U.S. economy is about to hit one big pothole,” said Thornberg.

Still, as unnerving and dramatic as these changes are, they may not lead to a recession this year – although the defining factor is whether the containment measures now being implemented across the globe are sufficient to slow the spread of the virus over the next few weeks. According to the forecast, if the extreme efforts are effective and the number of cases are kept in check, then lost output in the first half of the year could be partly made up in the second half.

The new forecast also emphasizes, however, that if the virus continues to spread and infects a substantial portion of the U.S. population, the economic disruptions will lengthen, and a recession would be likely although it is unclear how deep or damaging the contraction would be.

One of the biggest immediate risks, according to Thornberg, has been the hyperbolic actions of the financial markets. The frenzied drop in interest rates and equity prices could create a crisis where one does not need to exist—in financial liquidity. “For years the stock market has reacted hyper-excessively to non-economic events and concerns have intensified about what that means when a true crisis emerges,” said Thornberg. “The markets have taken on such a degree of volatility that they can create their own crises. Hopefully, when the pandemic passes, regulators will take a hard look at how financial markets are operating and consider rules and regulations that prevent these issues in the future.”

The new outlook also discusses potential impacts to California’s state economy.

View the full forecast for additional insights.


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Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. Learn more at www.BeaconEcon.com and www.UCREconomicForecast.org.

 

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

By Press Release

Stater Bros. Charities and Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling Give Back to Military Families

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Stater Bros. Charities, the philanthropic arm of Stater Bros. Markets, partnered with Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling again this year for their Give Back program during National Military Appreciation Month. The program ran for the entire month of May, during which Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling committed to donating $0.25 per eligible product purchased to the Bob Hope USO. Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling donated $15,000, and Stater Bros. Charities matched their donation for a total contribution of $30,000.

A check presentation occurred during a K-EARTH 101 radiothon benefiting the Bob Hope USO. The radiothon took place at the Bob Hope USO at LAX (Los Angeles International Airport) on June 29, 2023, where Stater Bros. Charities and Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling presented Bob Hope USO with a $30,000 check.

Bob Hope USO’s mission is to strengthen America’s military service members by keeping them connected to family, home and country, throughout their service to the nation. The Give Back program is a unique opportunity to show gratitude and support to the brave men and women who risk their lives for our freedoms and to care for their families while they are away from home on deployment.

“Stater Bros. Markets has a long history of supporting veterans, service members, and their families,” said Danielle Oehlman, Director, Stater Bros. Charities. “We are so pleased to partner with our friends at Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling and the USO to give back to those who have given so much for us.”

Lorin Stewart, President, USO West Region, said, “We are deeply grateful to Stater Bros. Charities and Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling for being sustaining partners of the USO. The Give Back program embodies the essence of the USO mission by enabling the community at large to come together to support and give thanks to our armed forces and their brave military families in an impactful way.”

Funds will support the Bob Hope USO and USO San Diego Center operations, including programs and services that strengthen the social, mental, physical, and emotional well-being of local military service members, their families, and their communities.

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BDK Logistics Intelligence Fully Leases 114,190 SF Industrial Facility in Corona, CA

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Cushman & Wakefield represents landlord in lease in SoCal’s Inland Empire

Cushman & Wakefield announced that BDK Logistics Intelligence, Inc. has signed a lease for an entire 114,190-square-foot industrial facility at 1161 Olympic Drive in Corona, California. Situated in Southern California’s renowned Inland Empire, the building is owned by Monterey Rancho Mirage, LLC, which was represented by Brett Lockwood and Rick Ellison of Cushman & Wakefield in the transaction.

“We are pleased to welcome BDK to the property as a quality industrial tenant that is expanding its presence in the market, which it also currently occupies multiple warehouse facilities,” said Director Brett Lockwood. “Our client was instrumental in helping this deal transact as there were many variables that needed to be navigated which led to this lease coming together quickly and successfully.”

1161 Olympic Drive is a quality freestanding building situated on ±4.8 acres and features 20 dock high loading doors. The property is conveniently located off Interstate 15 near the confluence of SR 91 and is proximate to the extensive freeway network traversing the entire Greater Los Angeles region and into other major markets in and out of state.

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s latest Q2-2023 quarterly report, the Inland Empire industrial market posted an overall vacancy of 3.4% and has recorded more than 2.7 million square feet of positive net absorption through the first half of 2023.

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Hernandez resigns as County CEO; Snoke will continue filling in pending Board action

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Leonard X. Hernandez resigned from the post of County Chief Executive Officer effective today. County Chief Operating Officer Luther Snoke has been filling in for Hernandez while Hernandez has been on leave and will continue to do so. The Board of Supervisors will act to appoint an interim or permanent CEO shortly.

“The Board of Supervisors appreciates the service Leonard provided to the public and the County organization, especially as we navigated our way through the pandemic and other very difficult challenges,” said Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe.

Hernandez provided the following statement:

“It has been an extreme privilege to serve as the Chief Executive Officer of San Bernardino County. I am thankful to the Board of Supervisors for their leadership and the hard-working men and women who do amazing work every day. Due to an urgent family health issue that requires my immediate and undivided attention, I have informed the Board of my resignation. Under the strong leadership of the Board of Supervisors and the County’s executive team, the County will continue doing great things for the residents of San Bernardino County.”

“The Board of Supervisors is committed to a seamless transition in staff leadership with no interruption in County services or impact on County residents or employees,” Rowe said. “Luther has performed well filling in for Leonard and I am confident in his ability to continue serving in this role until the Board takes action.”

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