By Press Release
ECONOMIC TURMOIL EXPECTED THROUGH SECOND QUARTER OF 2020
From Best Case Scenario To Worst, COVID-19 Will Deliver A Blow, Says New Forecast
How Much Of A Blow Is Yet To Be Seen
March 20, 2020 — Just how much of an impact the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) will have on the global, U.S., and California economies is a monstrously ominous and looming question now facing government leaders, businesses, and individuals around the world. The uncertainty surrounding the spread, containment, and recovery rates of the disease, and the extremely fast moving nature of daily events, makes estimating the direct economic impact of the pandemic close to impossible, according to a new forecast released today by Beacon Economics and the UCR School Business Center for Economic Forecasting.
“This is unprecedented in nature and by far the worst threat facing the U.S. economic expansion since it began over a decade ago,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and Director of the Center for Forecasting. “Will it end the expansion for the year? Whatever the scenario, from best to worst, we are definitely going to see a serious hit in the first half of 2020.”
According to the new forecast, the sudden halt that has occurred in economic activity will cause unemployment claims to jump more quickly than ever before, slow home sales and business formation, reduce productivity, disrupt government revenue flows, and send ripples through the U.S. and global manufacturing base. “The U.S. economy is about to hit one big pothole,” said Thornberg.
Still, as unnerving and dramatic as these changes are, they may not lead to a recession this year – although the defining factor is whether the containment measures now being implemented across the globe are sufficient to slow the spread of the virus over the next few weeks. According to the forecast, if the extreme efforts are effective and the number of cases are kept in check, then lost output in the first half of the year could be partly made up in the second half.
The new forecast also emphasizes, however, that if the virus continues to spread and infects a substantial portion of the U.S. population, the economic disruptions will lengthen, and a recession would be likely although it is unclear how deep or damaging the contraction would be.
One of the biggest immediate risks, according to Thornberg, has been the hyperbolic actions of the financial markets. The frenzied drop in interest rates and equity prices could create a crisis where one does not need to exist—in financial liquidity. “For years the stock market has reacted hyper-excessively to non-economic events and concerns have intensified about what that means when a true crisis emerges,” said Thornberg. “The markets have taken on such a degree of volatility that they can create their own crises. Hopefully, when the pandemic passes, regulators will take a hard look at how financial markets are operating and consider rules and regulations that prevent these issues in the future.”
The new outlook also discusses potential impacts to California’s state economy.
View the full forecast for additional insights.
Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. Learn more at www.BeaconEcon.com and www.UCREconomicForecast.org.
By Press Release
Newmark Negotiates 864,000-Square-Foot Industrial Lease Renewal in Perris, California
Newmark announces the 864,000-square-foot industrial lease renewal with NFI Industries, a supply chain solutions provider, at Perris Distribution Center in Perris, California.
Newmark Executive Managing Directors Mark Kegans, SIOR and Ron Washle, SIOR and Managing Director Dean Washle represented the landlord, Ares Management, formerly known as Black Creek Group.
“Our team was pleased to represent Ares Management in such this substantial lease renewal,” said Kegans. “Perris Distribution Center is in a prime location for logistics and distribution, as evidenced by the location’s top-tier tenant roster.”
Located at 657 Nance Street in Perris, Perris Distribution Center is a two-story cross-dock facility expandable to ±1,137,000 square feet. Building features include approximately 7,000 square feet of office space, minimum 36’ warehouse clearance height, ESFR sprinkler system, LED warehouse lighting, 112 dock-high loading doors and concrete truck courts. The ±43-acre parcel offers 298 auto parking spaces and 224 trailer parking spaces, including an auxiliary parcel to accommodate up to 154 trailer parking spaces or approximately 530 auto parking spaces.
Perris Distribution Center is proximate to Freeway 215, with on and off-ramps at Harley Knox Boulevard to the north and Ramona Expressway to the south. Neighboring industrial tenants include The Home Depot, General Mills, Ross, iHerb, Amazon and Wayfair, to name a few.
The national industrial market has remained resilient despite recent economic and geopolitical headwinds, according to Newmark Research. For the fifth consecutive quarter, national industrial absorption topped 100 million square feet. The persistent imbalance between demand and new deliveries has pushed vacancy down to 3.7%, likely a cyclical low. Demand remains strong for industrial space with absorption continuing to outpace deliveries.
By Press Release
County prepares for the storms ahead
With more rain on the way this weekend and even more next week, County Public Works crews have been busy in the mountains and elsewhere in the county cleaning up from this morning’s rain and preparing flood control facilities for the storms ahead both in the mountains and in recently burned areas.
After having cleared a path through all 500-plus miles of County roads in a little over a week, crews this week have widened nearly every one of those roads to two lanes while also ensuring 150 high-priority culverts were clear. That was not an easy task considering many were hidden by massive snow berms. Crews relied on GIS technology and old photos to find many of the culverts. Public Works teams also cleared out debris basins and made sure channels and other waterways were clear.
County Public Works coordinated with the Rim of the World School District to improve access to bus stops and clear bus routes so mountain schools can return to normal operations. Crews also plowed Rim of the World High School parking lots for students and staff when they return.
Public Works upgraded its GIS map to a Snow Road Widened Status Dashboard so the public can get daily updates on which County and non-County maintained roads have been widened. Also included in the dashboard are resources to find food and supply distribution centers, shelter, and more.
See all of today’s highlights in our daily storm recovery video.
Residents are urged to be prepared and make sure they are signed up for emergency notifications and also download the SB Ready app. Residents can do both on the San Bernardino County Fire Protection District website.
Mountain residents urged to report property damage
Damage estimates are the strongest tool local communities have in convincing state and federal agencies to provide relief. That’s why the County is encouraging mountain property owners to use an online property damage reporting tool developed by the County Fire District to report moderate to major damage to residential and commercial buildings caused by the winter storms.
The information reported by property owners will be part of the total damage estimate provided to the state, which will then decide whether to seek aid from federal agencies such as FEMA.
Property owners seeking to repair or rebuild their storm-damaged structures are eligible for to have up to $500 in County planning and building fees waived thanks to action taken yesterday by the Board of Supervisors. Those looking to rebuild should consult the County’s new Mountain Region Snowstorm Rebuild Questions & Answers document.
Funding approved by the Board is also making is possible for the County to reimburse residents up to $500 toward the cost of removing snow from their property.
A complete list of resources and links is available on the County Snow Information website.
Teamwork frees snowbound mountain residents
Twin Peaks resident Michelle Munoz expresses her gratitude to the members of the Forestry and Fire Recruitment Program who worked diligently to remove the snow that had piled up around her home.
Wrightwood residents reach out to recognize unsung heroes
As the community of Wrightwood recovers from the recent blizzard, it’s important to recognize all of the unsung heroes who went above and beyond to help their neighbors in need.
Laurey Aydelotte, a Wrightwood resident since 2004, reached out to the office of their First District County Supervisor, Col. Paul Cook (Ret.), to praise these community members.
“Friends with snow removal equipment quickly stepped up to help some of our trapped residents,” said Aydelotte. “This included Sadie Albers, John Kearn and Jeremy Norman of Hesperia. Residents were helping each other get food, pick up medicine from various pharmacies, and other essentials.”
Renee Olson, a lifelong Wrightwood resident, echoed Aydelotte’s comments. She and friends Dionne Burns and Julie LaFever enlisted the help of local teens to assist seniors who were unable to clear the large amounts of snow. “There were so many great kids who helped shovel seniors’ driveways throughout the neighborhood: Cade LaFever, Alexia and Sienna Burns, Cameron Coombs, Cash Littlefield, Ethan Olson, and Devun Moore,” said Olson. “I’d also like to recognize Owen Todhunter and the Serrano High School Explorers, who dug out several driveways. It was definitely a group effort!”
Wendi Swanson, another longtime Wrightwood resident, agreed. “Everyone worked together to help seniors on our street, clearing their berm or at least a foot path in case of emergency,” she said. “I know neighbors helped me and I helped them. It was true Wrightwood cohesion.”
By Press Release
Rebuilt Second Street Bridge Opens in Downtown San Bernardino
The City of San Bernardino celebrated the reopening of Second Street between Arrowhead Avenue and Mountain View Avenue on Tuesday, March 14, restoring vehicle and pedestrian traffic to a key downtown corridor. The road had been closed for three years for the demolition and reconstruction of the Second Street Bridge, which passes over Warm Creek and was found to have structural issues in 2020.
At a ribbon cutting ceremony to mark the completion of the bridge, Mayor Helen Tran stated, “I share in the excitement of our residents and businesses in the reopening of Second Street. It is a small bridge, but a big connection point.”
When Caltrans found structural issues with the bridge in March of 2020 and ordered it closed to vehicles and pedestrians, plans were already underway to replace it. In February of 2021, the City awarded a contract to Ortiz Construction to construct a new bridge. Construction began in June of 2021.
“I would often get asked by constituents when Second Street would re-open,” said Council Member Damon Alexander. “We are pleased that today is that day.”
Completion of the project was delayed by over a year due to supply chain issues experienced by both the contractor and Southern California Edison, who needed to construct new electricity connections through the new bridge to downtown San Bernardino.
“This project was the poster child for the supply chain issues experienced at the height of the pandemic,” said San Bernardino Public Works Director Daniel Hernandez. “I’d like to thank our contractors and utility partners for their flexibility and patience with each other.”
The project was further delayed last summer to ensure the existing electricity connection remained in place to meet peak load demand downtown.
The cost to replace the four-lane bridge was just over $3.2 million. Approximately $2.6 million was funded by the City, and $600,000 was funded for project design, inspections, and contingencies by Caltrans.
Note: The individuals in the attached ribbon cutting photo from left to right are Public Works Director Daniel Hernandez, Council Member Damon Alexander, Mayor Helen Tran, Council Member Ben Reynoso, and Assistant City Manager Edelia Eveland.
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