Economy
California’s Strong Job Growth Pre COVID-19 Better Positions State For Recovery

CALIFORNIA’S STRONG JOB GROWTH PRE COVID-19 BETTER POSITIONS STATE FOR RECOVERY
March 27, 2020 — The latest employment figures released by the California EDD reiterate one piece of good news: California entered the COVID-19 crisis from a strong position. Together with federal stimulus and a return to some degree of normalcy within a couple of months, the economic hardship could be somewhat temporary, with consumption deferred to a later period, according to analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. However, there could be longer-term hardship if this unprecedented draw down in consumption endures into the summer.
“We have taken a jump into unknown territory. Over the next few weeks, the number of workers laid off in California will reach unprecedented levels,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center. “The hope is that stimulus measures will ease the short-term pain felt by workers, and that containment efforts will enable the economy to return to something like full capacity as the summer proceeds. At present, we can take some comfort in the fact that the state’s economy entered this downturn from a position of unparalleled strength.”
The latest figures reveal that employment in the state grew by 29,000 jobs in February. Since February of last year, California has added 269,000 jobs, which is equivalent to a 1.6% year-over-year increase, matching the nation’s growth rate of 1.6%. The effect of COVID-19, however, does not register in the current job’s release and will not appear in the numbers in a meaningful way until data for April are available.
California’s unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% in February, maintaining its record low. The state’s labor force continues to expand, albeit slowly, growing by 6,400 February. Year-over-year growth in California’s labor force now stands at 0.7%. A lack of housing continues to be the main constraint for work force growth in the state.
Key Findings:
- The Construction sector added more jobs in February than any other sector in the state’s economy, boosting payrolls by 7,800 positions. Since February 2019, the Construction sector grew payrolls by 2.8% over the 12-month period.
- The Information sector also had a strong month, increasing payrolls by 6,400 in February. Other sectors posting strong gains in February were Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (5,500), Administrative Support (4,600), Health Care (3,600), and Finance & Insurance (2,700)
- Over the twelve-month period from February 2019 to February 2020, the Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (4.9%), Information (4.2%), Educational Services (3.5%), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (2.9%), Health Care (2.8%), and Construction (2.8%) sectors posted the biggest job gains in percentage terms.
- Within the state, job growth was led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the biggest gains, where payrolls grew by 13,400 during the month. San Diego (4,600), the Inland Empire (4,300), and Orange County (2,600) also enjoyed job gains. Over the past year, El Centro (2.1%) saw the fastest job growth in the region, measured by percentage increase, followed by San Diego (1.9%), Los Angeles (MD) (1.7%), the Inland Empire (1.6%), Orange County (1.2%), and Ventura (0.9%).
- In the San Francisco Bay Area, San Jose led the way, where payrolls expanded by 4,000 positions in February. San Francisco (MD) (3,200), the East Bay (200), and San Rafael (MD) (200) also saw payroll increases during the month. Over the past year, San Francisco (MD) (3.1%) experienced the fastest job growth rate in the region, followed by Napa (3.0%), San Rafael (MD) (2.1%), Santa Rosa (2.1%), and San Jose (1.7%).
- In the Central Valley, Sacramento enjoyed the biggest monthly gains, where payrolls increased by 3,500 positions. Stockton (700), Bakersfield (600), Madera (300), and Modesto (300) added jobs as well. Over the past 12 months, Yuba (8.2%) experienced the fastest growth, followed by Madera (3.1%), Bakersfield (2.9%), Fresno (2.2%), Stockton, (2.1%), Modesto (1.9%), and Visalia (1.7%).
- On the Central Coast, Santa Cruz added the greatest number of jobs, with payrolls growing by 1,000 over the month. Santa Barbara (900), Salinas (500), and San Luis Obispo (400) also increased payrolls during the month. From February 2019 to February 2020, San Luis Obispo (3.2%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (2.7%), Salinas (2.0%), and Santa Barbara (1.8%).
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Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. This analysis was authored by Christopher Thornberg, Taner Osman, and Brian Vanderplas. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com and www.ucreconomicforecast.org.
Business
Economist Christopher Thornberg, State Treasurer Fiona Ma Headline New Forecast Conference

Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Economy
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong
Bizz Buzz
Workforce Development Earns National Achievement Awards

#bizzbuzz
Inspired by the Board of Supervisors’ commitment to meet the needs of employers and jobseekers and foster a vibrant local economy, the San Bernardino County Workforce Development Department has been honored with eight 2023 Achievement Awards from the National Association of Counties (NACo).
Among the services and initiatives for which WDB was honored were the Rapid Response Community Resource Fair, Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program and, in partnership with the Public Defender’s office, the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs.
Thanks to strong and stable leadership and policy direction from Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe and her colleagues on the Board of Supervisors, San Bernardino County received a record-breaking 160 NACo awards this year. The awards reflect the Board’s efforts to cultivate the innovation that leads to the development of outstanding public service programs.
The NACo awards recognize the best of the best among county governments across the U.S. Nationwide, 40,000 county elected officials and 3.6 million county employees provide important services, such as caring for our physical and mental health, maintaining roads, ensuring public safety, strengthening environmental stewardship, administering elections and much more.
“The Workforce Development programs and services recognized by NACo highlight the extraordinary work being done by Workforce Development to enhance career opportunities for our residents and help businesses grow,” Rowe said.
The first Rapid Response Community Resource Fair was developed shortly after United Furniture Industries (UFI) abruptly laid off more 300 employees in the High Desert without advance notice just days before Thanksgiving 2022. When Workforce Development was alerted, staff quickly mobilized businesses and community partners to help connect those laid off to available employment opportunities, as well as various other community resources. Approximately 275 of the affected UFI employees were offered new employment opportunities as a result.
The Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program was a pilot program that tapped into the wide-reaching business network of chambers of commerce. This collaboration between WDB and various chambers of commerce throughout the county was designed to leverage the relationship between chambers and small businesses to build awareness and accessibility to Workforce Development services available to them. Outcomes as a result of this partnership include various successful services including job listings, job fairs, positions filled, and job training assistance, among others.
Perhaps the most impactful program receiving this recognition is the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs. Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s Office have partnered with businesses and community organizations to increase economic access and equity. The partnership was designed to bring critical resources directly into the community – to churches, community centers, community colleges, and America’s Job Centers – for those looking to remove barriers and increase their access to employment opportunities and other services. The Public Defender helps participants by providing expungement or record clearing services, and Workforce Development brings employers with job opportunities, all within the same location. The events have been well received and proven useful to the community, making this a long-term partnership, not only between Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s office but a long list of other community organizations that have also participated.
“Our team and board feel fortunate to be recognized for these awards,” said William Sterling, chairman of the Workforce Development Board. “The underlying factor of the programs being recognized are partnerships. We feel fortunate for our staff and the relationships developed with other departments and organizations and the impact these services have had within our communities, which is at the core of what public service is supposed to be.”
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