Economy
CA Employment Battered In March Numbers; April Likely To Be Worse
State Unemployment Rate Jumps To Highest Point Since 2016; Labor Force Declines
April 17, 2020 — As expected, the latest numbers from the California EDD show that the COVID-19 pandemic and halt in economic activity is having a significantly negative impact on employment and businesses in California, according to analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
The state’s total nonfarm payrolls declined by 99,500 in March, the largest month-to-month decline since the depths of the ‘Great Recession’. It’s also important to note that the data are an employment count as of the 12th of the month, which preceded the stay-at-home order issued by Governor Gavin Newsom. As a result, these numbers are likely painting a rosier picture of the state’s actual economic conditions during the month of March.
“While the current report paints a bleak enough picture, unfortunately, things are likely even worse, and have very likely become much worse in April,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center. “Just how quickly employment growth returns will depend on when stay-at-home orders are lifted, and when the state’s residents feel comfortable resuming their normal activities… but at this point, we can’t put a timeline on when this will happen.”
Despite the steep decline in California’s nonfarm payrolls in March, the state still increased payrolls by 150,400 jobs or 0.9% over the last year. This attests to the fact that California’s economy entered the crisis from a position of strength. However, this strength will be tested over the coming months as the economy nears recession.
The state’s unemployment rate jumped considerably in March, increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 5.3%. This marks California’s highest unemployment rate since August 2016. Moreover, this increase came in the face of a 251,800 decline in the state’s labor force. California’s labor force has now declined by 0.5% over the last year. Household employment also fell considerably, falling by 512,600 during the month and by 1.6% from March 2019 to March 2020.
Key Findings:
- Government While a significant number of the state’s job sectors saw declines in March, the majority of job losses were concentrated in the Leisure and Hospitality sector, which shed 67,200 positions during the month. The steep decline pushed year-over-year growth to a 1.9% decline.
- The Other Services sector also posted significant declines in March, decreasing payrolls by 15,500. Other sectors posting large losses were Construction (-11,600), Manufacturing (-5,300), Administrative Support (-4,800), Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services (-4,400), Retail Trade (-3,200), and Wholesale Trade (-1,800).
- Despite the widespread declines in March, a significant number of sectors continued to post job gains. The Government sector posted the largest gains, increasing payrolls by 5,200. Other sectors posting gains in March were Information (2,600), Finance & Insurance (2,100), Real Estate (1,900), and Health Care (1,300).
- Over the twelve-month period from March 2019 to March 2020, the Information (5.%), Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (4.7%), Educational Services (3.3%), Health Care (2.8%), Real Estate (2.6%), Mining and Logging (2.2%), and Finance & Insurance (2.0%) sectors experienced the largest job gains in percentage terms. While the Leisure and Hospitality (-1.9%), Other Services (-1.5%), Manufacturing (-1.3%), Wholesale Trade (-1.2%), Management (-1.0%), and Retail Trade (-0.7%) sectors had the largest percentage declines.
- Within the state, job declines were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the biggest losses, where payrolls fell by 39,600 during the month. Orange County (-16,500), San Diego (-14,500), and the Inland Empire (-4,100) also shed jobs. Over the past year, El Centro (1.3%) saw the fastest job growth in Southern California, measured by percentage increase, followed by Ventura (0.9%), the Inland Empire (0.9%), Los Angeles (MD) (0.8%), and San Diego (0.8%).
- In the Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) experienced the largest declines with payrolls falling by 13,700 positions in March. San Jose (-8,400), the East Bay (-3,300), and San Rafael (MD) (-1,400) also saw payrolls decline during the month. Over the past year, Napa (2.4%) enjoyed the fastest job growth rate in the region, followed by San Francisco (MD) (1.6%), Santa Rosa (1.4%), and Vallejo (0.9%). Note that the Bay Area has seen larger relative declines because it began containment measures prior to other parts of the state.
- In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly declines, where payrolls fell by 3,400 positions. Payrolls in Modesto (-500), Fresno (-500), Bakersfield (-500), and Redding (-300) declined as well. Over the past 12 months, Yuba (8.3%) has enjoyed the fastest growth in percentage terms, followed by Madera (2.8%), Bakersfield (2.3%), Visalia (1.9%), Fresno (1.8%), Stockton, (1.6%), and Modesto (1.9%).
- On the Central Coast, Santa Barbara shed the largest number of jobs, with payrolls declining by 700 positions over the month. Payrolls in Santa Cruz (-600) and Salinas (-400) also declined during the month. From March 2019 to March 2020, San Luis Obispo (2.3%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (1.8%), Salinas (1.2%), and Santa Barbara (0.9%).
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Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. This analysis was authored by Christopher Thornberg, Taner Osman, and Brian Vanderplas. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com and www.ucreconomicforecast.org.
Business
Economist Christopher Thornberg, State Treasurer Fiona Ma Headline New Forecast Conference
Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Economy
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong
Bizz Buzz
Workforce Development Earns National Achievement Awards
#bizzbuzz
Inspired by the Board of Supervisors’ commitment to meet the needs of employers and jobseekers and foster a vibrant local economy, the San Bernardino County Workforce Development Department has been honored with eight 2023 Achievement Awards from the National Association of Counties (NACo).
Among the services and initiatives for which WDB was honored were the Rapid Response Community Resource Fair, Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program and, in partnership with the Public Defender’s office, the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs.
Thanks to strong and stable leadership and policy direction from Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe and her colleagues on the Board of Supervisors, San Bernardino County received a record-breaking 160 NACo awards this year. The awards reflect the Board’s efforts to cultivate the innovation that leads to the development of outstanding public service programs.
The NACo awards recognize the best of the best among county governments across the U.S. Nationwide, 40,000 county elected officials and 3.6 million county employees provide important services, such as caring for our physical and mental health, maintaining roads, ensuring public safety, strengthening environmental stewardship, administering elections and much more.
“The Workforce Development programs and services recognized by NACo highlight the extraordinary work being done by Workforce Development to enhance career opportunities for our residents and help businesses grow,” Rowe said.
The first Rapid Response Community Resource Fair was developed shortly after United Furniture Industries (UFI) abruptly laid off more 300 employees in the High Desert without advance notice just days before Thanksgiving 2022. When Workforce Development was alerted, staff quickly mobilized businesses and community partners to help connect those laid off to available employment opportunities, as well as various other community resources. Approximately 275 of the affected UFI employees were offered new employment opportunities as a result.
The Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program was a pilot program that tapped into the wide-reaching business network of chambers of commerce. This collaboration between WDB and various chambers of commerce throughout the county was designed to leverage the relationship between chambers and small businesses to build awareness and accessibility to Workforce Development services available to them. Outcomes as a result of this partnership include various successful services including job listings, job fairs, positions filled, and job training assistance, among others.
Perhaps the most impactful program receiving this recognition is the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs. Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s Office have partnered with businesses and community organizations to increase economic access and equity. The partnership was designed to bring critical resources directly into the community – to churches, community centers, community colleges, and America’s Job Centers – for those looking to remove barriers and increase their access to employment opportunities and other services. The Public Defender helps participants by providing expungement or record clearing services, and Workforce Development brings employers with job opportunities, all within the same location. The events have been well received and proven useful to the community, making this a long-term partnership, not only between Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s office but a long list of other community organizations that have also participated.
“Our team and board feel fortunate to be recognized for these awards,” said William Sterling, chairman of the Workforce Development Board. “The underlying factor of the programs being recognized are partnerships. We feel fortunate for our staff and the relationships developed with other departments and organizations and the impact these services have had within our communities, which is at the core of what public service is supposed to be.”
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