Economy
2019 WAS AN ‘IMPRESSIVE’ YEAR FOR CALIFORNIA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
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Labor Force Continues Expansion Although Annual Growth Remains Lackluster
By: Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development
January 24, 2020 — Nonfarm employment in California capped off 2019 with modest gains, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. The latest figures released by the California Employment Development Department reveal that employment in the state grew by 12,600 jobs in December. Since December 2018, California has added 310,300 jobs, which is equivalent to a 1.8% year-over-year increase, exceeding the nation’s growth rate of 1.4%.
“December marked the end of an impressive year for the state’s economy with California adding over 300,000 jobs,” said Taner Osman, a Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center. “That rate of growth far exceeds the national growth rate and was quicker than the state’s growth rate in 2018 of 1.6%.”
California’s unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% in December, maintaining its record low. Over the year, the state’s unemployment rate has fallen from 4.1% to 3.9%. The state’s labor force also expanded for a fourth straight month, growing by 52,300 workers in the latest numbers. This reverses the contraction of the labor force that was seen in the first half of 2019. Since December 2018, California’s labor force has expanded by 36,900 workers, a relatively lackluster year-over-year increase of 0.2%. At the same time, the nation’s labor force grew by 0.9%.
Key Findings:
- The Other Services sector added more jobs in December than any other sector in the state’s economy, boosting payrolls by 4,200 positions. Establishments in this sector are primarily engaged in activities such as equipment and machinery repairing, dry cleaning and laundry services, personal care services, and pet care services. The Government sector also had a strong month, increasing payrolls by 3,400 positions. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,300), Administrative Support (3,300), Educational Services (3,200), and Health Care (2,000) also experienced relatively strong job gains.
- Over the period from December 2018 to December 2019, Educational Services saw the fastest growth (4.5%). This was followed by Construction (3.6%), Health Care (3.4%), Administrative Support (3.2%), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (2.4%), and Real Estate (2.2%).
- Despite total job growth in the state, payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in December. Information posted the largest decline, where payrolls declined by 3,900. Still, employment in the sector has expanded by 2.1% since December 2018. Payrolls in Leisure and Hospitality (-2,400), Real Estate (-1,100), Wholesale Trade (-900), and Manufacturing (-600) also contracted during the month.
- In Southern California, job growth was led by Orange County, where payrolls grew by 6,000. San Diego (4,300), El Centro (100), and Ventura (100) also enjoyed job gains. Payrolls declined by 5,200 in Los Angeles County and by 1,300 in the Inland Empire. Over the past year, San Diego (2.3%) saw the fastest job growth in the region, followed by the Inland Empire (2.0%), Los Angeles County (1.5%), and Orange County (1.4%).
- In the San Francisco Bay Area, the San Jose region led the way, where payrolls expanded by 1,500 positions in December. Job growth also occurred in the East Bay (900), Sonoma County (700), and Marin County (300). At the same time, payrolls declined by 400 in San Francisco County. Over the past year, Marin County (3.2%) saw the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Jose (2.9%), San Francisco (2.6%), Sonoma County (2.0%), and the East Bay (1.7%).
- In the Central Valley, Stockton saw the biggest monthly gains, where payrolls increased by 700 positions. Fresno (600), Sacramento (500), and Visalia (500) added jobs as well. Over the past 12 months, Yuba (4.0%) saw the fastest growth, followed by Merced (3.7%), Hanford (2.2%), Madera (2.0%), and Fresno (2.0%).
- On the Central Coast, Salinas added the greatest number of jobs, with payrolls growing by 800 positions over the month. In Santa Barbara, 100 positions were added to local payrolls. From December 2018 to December 2019, Salinas (3.1%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by San Luis Obispo (1.6%), Santa Cruz (1.4%), and Santa Barbara (1.2%).
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Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world-class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. This analysis was authored by Christopher Thornberg, Taner Osman, and Brian Vanderplas. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com and www.ucreconomicforecast.org.
Business
Economist Christopher Thornberg, State Treasurer Fiona Ma Headline New Forecast Conference
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Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Economy
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong
Bizz Buzz
Workforce Development Earns National Achievement Awards
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#bizzbuzz
Inspired by the Board of Supervisors’ commitment to meet the needs of employers and jobseekers and foster a vibrant local economy, the San Bernardino County Workforce Development Department has been honored with eight 2023 Achievement Awards from the National Association of Counties (NACo).
Among the services and initiatives for which WDB was honored were the Rapid Response Community Resource Fair, Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program and, in partnership with the Public Defender’s office, the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs.
Thanks to strong and stable leadership and policy direction from Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe and her colleagues on the Board of Supervisors, San Bernardino County received a record-breaking 160 NACo awards this year. The awards reflect the Board’s efforts to cultivate the innovation that leads to the development of outstanding public service programs.
The NACo awards recognize the best of the best among county governments across the U.S. Nationwide, 40,000 county elected officials and 3.6 million county employees provide important services, such as caring for our physical and mental health, maintaining roads, ensuring public safety, strengthening environmental stewardship, administering elections and much more.
“The Workforce Development programs and services recognized by NACo highlight the extraordinary work being done by Workforce Development to enhance career opportunities for our residents and help businesses grow,” Rowe said.
The first Rapid Response Community Resource Fair was developed shortly after United Furniture Industries (UFI) abruptly laid off more 300 employees in the High Desert without advance notice just days before Thanksgiving 2022. When Workforce Development was alerted, staff quickly mobilized businesses and community partners to help connect those laid off to available employment opportunities, as well as various other community resources. Approximately 275 of the affected UFI employees were offered new employment opportunities as a result.
The Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program was a pilot program that tapped into the wide-reaching business network of chambers of commerce. This collaboration between WDB and various chambers of commerce throughout the county was designed to leverage the relationship between chambers and small businesses to build awareness and accessibility to Workforce Development services available to them. Outcomes as a result of this partnership include various successful services including job listings, job fairs, positions filled, and job training assistance, among others.
Perhaps the most impactful program receiving this recognition is the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs. Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s Office have partnered with businesses and community organizations to increase economic access and equity. The partnership was designed to bring critical resources directly into the community – to churches, community centers, community colleges, and America’s Job Centers – for those looking to remove barriers and increase their access to employment opportunities and other services. The Public Defender helps participants by providing expungement or record clearing services, and Workforce Development brings employers with job opportunities, all within the same location. The events have been well received and proven useful to the community, making this a long-term partnership, not only between Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s office but a long list of other community organizations that have also participated.
“Our team and board feel fortunate to be recognized for these awards,” said William Sterling, chairman of the Workforce Development Board. “The underlying factor of the programs being recognized are partnerships. We feel fortunate for our staff and the relationships developed with other departments and organizations and the impact these services have had within our communities, which is at the core of what public service is supposed to be.”
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