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Sanguine Economic Outlook Says U.S. Will Near Full Economic Recovery In 2021

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California Job Recovery Slowed By June’s Resurgence in New Cases…. But Latest Trends Show Improvement

As dramatically bad as the U.S. economy’s 2nd quarter numbers were, the recent bounce back in activity, from home sales to consumer spending to payroll employment, has buoyed a leading forecast’s call for a relatively rapid recovery from the extraordinary COVID-19 recession.

Beacon Economics’ latest outlook for the U.S. and California diverges significantly from most forecasts as the firm continues to predict a strong recovery during the latter part of 2020 – with near full recovery in 2021. In contrast, for example, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office is suggesting it will take close to a decade for the nation to reach full recovery.

On its current trajectory, U.S. unemployment will fall below 7% by the end of this year, according to the new forecast, which bases its findings not only on the recent growth of key indicators, but on the economy’s condition at the outset of the pandemic.

“The United States economy entered this crisis from a place of real strength and balance – the collapse in consumer spending, for example, occurred because people were prevented from spending, not because they didn’t have the money to spend,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “There is simply no reason to think that the shocks to the economy, as massive as they were, will linger and have more than a transitory effect once activity fully resumes.”

The outlook points out that, during the pandemic, U.S. consumer savings have shot up to almost $1.2 trillion, four times what they were in December 2019. “This $900 billion in excess savings will undoubtedly be spent once life returns to normal… it’s the dry powder that will fuel a rapid recovery,” said Thornberg. Relatedly, the forecast notes that overall personal wealth in the U.S. has actually increased over the course of the current recession.

Despite the optimism, the new outlook is based on the assumption that the virus will be brought under control and health-mandated closures and restrictions will continue to ease. Economic recovery is highly contingent on containing the spread of the disease and there continues to be uncertainty surrounding the nation’s ability to do that effectively and quickly, according to the outlook. Additionally, while they may not drag down the macroeconomic numbers, there are clearly individuals and sectors suffering, and the new forecast is critical of the blunt, disproportional, and poorly thought-out way in which the immense Federal stimulus has been distributed, with aid not reaching those who need it and funds going to many who don’t.

In California, the recovery that has been underway since April slowed following the resurgence in new COVID-19 cases in the state in June. More recently, however, the number of new cases has started to decline. “While we are far from smooth sailing, cases and hospitalizations have been dropping in California as of late August, a critical trend for the state’s economic recovery,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “The hope, of course, is that containment continues and that job gains accelerate later in the year.”

At this point, given that mandated restrictions remain in place, Osman estimates that August’s numbers, when available, will show strong but not ‘blow out” employment gains in the state. California has launched a new four-tiered reopening plan, with 38 of the state’s 58 counties currently landing in the most restrictive tier. Counties are able to move to less restrictive tiers, which allow more businesses to open and more activities to resume, as their daily virus case numbers and positivity rates decrease.

View the full outlook here. 

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Saybridge Technologies’ Board of Directors Announces Byron J. Paul as CEO

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The SyBridge Technologies’ Board of Directors is pleased to announce that Byron J. Paul has joined SyBridge Technologies (“SyBridge” or the “Company”) as Chief Executive Officer and will also serve as a member of the Board of Directors.  Mr. Paul will build upon the Company’s strategic vision of becoming a global technological leader in value-added design and manufacturing solutions ranging from design and prototyping to production-as-a-service and aftermarket services for customers.  Mr. Paul brings extensive experience in industrial technology and a 20+ year track record of driving profitable growth in complex, global enterprises.

Mr. Paul was most recently Group President at Signode Industrial Group where he led a global portfolio of businesses focused on end-of-line packaging technologies and warehouse automation solutions.  He previously served as President of Destaco, a leading designer and manufacturer of precision engineered components for industrial automation and robotics applications. Mr. Paul has also held senior leadership roles at John Crane, a leader in rotating equipment solutions, and at the Boston Consulting Group.  Mr. Paul holds an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and a Master of Public Administration from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He also attended the University of Western Australia where he earned a Bachelor of Commerce with first class honors in accounting and finance.

Mr. Paul stated, “I am thrilled to be joining a world-class team at SyBridge Technologies. They have done an outstanding job expanding SyBridge Technologies’ global reach, growing from three sites in 2019 to 16 locations today. I look forward to partnering with the Board and Crestview Partners as we embark on the next phase of growth to build an unrivaled leader in digital manufacturing.”

Jason Luo, Chairman of SyBridge Technologies and Crestview Operating Executive noted, “Byron is a committed leader with a proven track record of successfully growing businesses and we are excited to partner with him as we plan to execute on the Company’s next chapter of growth.”

Mr. Paul succeeds Tony Nardone who has departed the company to pursue other interests. “We appreciate the many contributions Tony has made to SyBridge and wish him well in his future endeavors,” said Mr. Luo.

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Tips on Accessing Capital as an Under-resourced Small Business Owner

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Interview with Peter E. Jackson, MBA, Vice President, Sr. Business Consultant at J.P. Morgan Chase

By Josaline Cuesta, California Program Director, Small Business Majority

Entrepreneurship is essential to a thriving and equitable economy. Yet, too many of our smallest businesses—especially those owned by people of color, women, rural business owners, and other under-resourced communities—face significant hurdles in accessing capital from banks and other traditional financial institutions.

Small Business Majority prides itself on partnering with experts in the field to mitigate the unnecessary impacts of inequitable access to capital and help to break down systematic barriers.

Peter E. Jackson, MBA is Vice President, Sr. Business Consultant at J.P. Morgan Chase. His work in California has been integral to creating pathways for minority and women entrepreneurs to access capital successfully. I sat down with Peter for a Q&A to discuss his experiences, share his expertise and tips, and learn more about expanded opportunities for capital in a unique community.

Do you believe there is a barrier to accessing responsible capital for small business owners? If yes, do you believe that a certain group of small business owners are more susceptible to experiencing challenges? Why?

From where I sit, one of the biggest hurdles facing minority small businesses is access to financial education. Many Black and Latino business owners we work with through the Chase mentorship program, believe it or not, cite access to education as their top need, e.g., understanding working capital, credit readiness, financial planning, managing debt and cash flow, etc. Working knowledge of these principles is the foundation of building a small business. That means having your bookkeeping and financial operations to help you make your best case when seeking funding/capital from any lender. Not having this in order may delay any financing for your business. There are also questions to ask yourself, e.g. ‘Am I in a healthy financial position to pay back a loan or is a bank loan the right financing option for my business needs at this time?’ This is where a banking relationship or banker can come in handy.

Often, minority entrepreneurs may not have had the best relationship with a bank or may not have had a parent or close individual to seek guidance from related to entrepreneurship – the list goes on. The pandemic exacerbated many of the underlying racial disparities that already existed in the U.S., including the banking system. As a firm, we recognize these challenges and do everything we can to address them.

In 2020, JPMorgan Chase announced a $30 billion racial equity commitment to create an inclusive economic recovery and help Black and Latino small businesses, families, and local communities create and sustain generational wealth. We’re creating the infrastructure to help more minority-owned businesses grow and recover through new programs, products, and hiring. This service is free, and business owners do not have to be Chase customers to receive coaching and mentorship.

Information about the JP Morgan Chase Minority Owned – Business Program is available at: https://www.chase.com/es/business/minority-businesses

What stories have you heard about the ease of accessing capital for small business owners? Can you please share a few typical challenges and some success stories? Did any success stories involve innovation? Did owners have to think outside the box to gain continued access to capital?

Yes, thinking out of the box is an everyday part of what we as Sr. Business Consultants do. Every business owner comes from a different place financially and operates their business differently. An example of this was a local smoothie bar owned by a Latina entrepreneur in Fontana, California. I discussed her goals and challenges, and she needed to obtain a small working capital loan to hire a part-time employee to extend her business hours and add signage. I helped her calculate and understand her break-even to determine the right price she needed to charge for her product to be able to pay for an additional employee and add a sign to the front of her store. This was important because she established new sales goals to drive more revenue. Also, the loan underwriter could see her business now had sufficient income capacity to borrow and pay back a loan by charging enough to support the loan payment. Business owners often borrow without a plan to demonstrate they can repay the loan or without consulting their CPA to ensure they leave enough money in their business to borrow. Part of my role is to help small business owners understand their business finances and how to leverage them to scale and grow their businesses.

What are some ways to increase small business funding to expand access to capital?

From JPMorgan Chase’s standpoint, here’s what we are doing to expand access to capital for underrepresented communities. We have committed $396 million (page 23-25) in small business philanthropy to grow Black, Hispanic and women-owned small businesses and create a more inclusive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

  • ~$42.5 million to expand the Entrepreneurs of Color Fund (EOCF) in more U.S. cities, the program will offer low-cost loans and technical assistance to small businesses through LISC and CFDI network
  • Philanthropic investments to build the capacity of diverse-led nonprofits across the globe and support the signature Ascend Program
  • Policy solutions through the JPMorgan Chase Policy Center to improve U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) program to better meet the needs of minority- and women-owned small businesses.

Within Business Banking, we plan to provide an additional 15,000 loans -totaling $2 billion- to small businesses in majority-Black, -Hispanic and Latino communities over the next five years. To further expand access to credit to minority business owners, we’re:

  • Exploring targeted adjustments to how the firm evaluates credit applications
  • Introducing new products, including a digital lending platform, to better support the needs of small Black, Hispanic and Latino-owned businesses seeking quick access to capital.

What are some of your recommended, trusted community resources or training opportunities within the Inland Empire that will help with understanding ways to access legitimate capital?

  • Mentorship, dedicated coaching, and education are critical to helping people get credit ready. Look into Chase’s 1:1 coaching for minority entrepreneurs across 21 U.S. cities, where they work with a senior business consultant to help them scale. Visit www.chase.com/businessconsultant to learn more.
  • Visit the Inland Empire Center for Entrepreneurship (IECE), an SBDC program within California State University, San Bernardino, which delivers a wide range of programs, technical assistance, and services to existing small business owners or aspiring entrepreneurs in the community. Every state has a small business development center offered through U.S. SBA and colleges/universities.
  • Lastly, I think AmPac, UCR, and the University of La Verne also have some of the strongest community resources that speak to access to capital, readiness, training, grant programs, microfinancing, etc.

Peter will join other financial experts for a Small Business Majority hosted event on September 14, 5:30pm PT. “Breaking Barriers: Accessing capital as women business owners of color” is a free event to learn tips for remaining resilient in business and how to navigate non-predatory debt financing options that will help grow or strengthen your woman-owned small business to help build generational wealth.

Register for this event here: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/breaking-barriers-accessing-capital-as-women-business-owners-of-color-registration-393175316957

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Stater Bros. Markets Appoints Rebecca Calvin to Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer

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Stater Bros. Markets is pleased to announce the appointment of Rebecca Calvin to the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer, due to the upcoming retirement of the company’s well-respected and current Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer Dennis McIntyre. She will report to Chief Executive Officer Pete Van Helden and serve on the company’s Executive Leadership Team. She will begin her new role on Monday, September 26, 2022.

Calvin will lead the company’s marketing efforts which include the Sales and Merchandising, Integrated Marketing, eCommerce, and Food Strategy and Innovation departments. She will be responsible for strengthening Stater Bros.’ ability to meet the evolving needs of grocery shoppers in the diverse Southern California market through smart and effective product, pricing, and promotion strategies.

“I am very excited that Rebecca has chosen to join the Stater Bros. team and I look forward to working side-by-side with her to make Stater Bros. the premier shopping destination for groceries in Southern California,” said Stater Bros. CEO Pete Van Helden. “On behalf of all our teammates, I would also like to take this opportunity to thank Dennis for nearly 45 years of dedicated service to our company. His passion and enthusiasm have made a significant impact on the current and future success of Stater Bros.”

Calvin arrives at Stater Bros. with several years of experience in the grocery industry, most recently serving as Senior Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer at The Save Mart Companies, where she led merchandising, space planning, pricing and promotion execution, and their private label program. Before joining The Save Mart Companies, she began her career in the grocery industry with Daymon Worldwide as a category buyer. She served as Vice President of Grocery, Frozen, and Dairy at Mariano’s before continuing on to merchandising and category management roles in the Kroger family of companies.

Calvin graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh with a Bachelor of Science Degree in Biology with a Minor in Business Administration and is a graduate of the Cornell University Food Executive Program. She has earned a Six Sigma Green Belt Certification and currently serves on the Western Association of Food Chains (WAFC) Board of Directors. Earlier this year, Calvin was recognized as one of Retail Today’s “50 Outstanding Women in Retail.”

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