Business
Sanguine Economic Outlook Says U.S. Will Near Full Economic Recovery In 2021
California Job Recovery Slowed By June’s Resurgence in New Cases…. But Latest Trends Show Improvement
As dramatically bad as the U.S. economy’s 2nd quarter numbers were, the recent bounce back in activity, from home sales to consumer spending to payroll employment, has buoyed a leading forecast’s call for a relatively rapid recovery from the extraordinary COVID-19 recession.
Beacon Economics’ latest outlook for the U.S. and California diverges significantly from most forecasts as the firm continues to predict a strong recovery during the latter part of 2020 – with near full recovery in 2021. In contrast, for example, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office is suggesting it will take close to a decade for the nation to reach full recovery.
On its current trajectory, U.S. unemployment will fall below 7% by the end of this year, according to the new forecast, which bases its findings not only on the recent growth of key indicators, but on the economy’s condition at the outset of the pandemic.
“The United States economy entered this crisis from a place of real strength and balance – the collapse in consumer spending, for example, occurred because people were prevented from spending, not because they didn’t have the money to spend,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “There is simply no reason to think that the shocks to the economy, as massive as they were, will linger and have more than a transitory effect once activity fully resumes.”
The outlook points out that, during the pandemic, U.S. consumer savings have shot up to almost $1.2 trillion, four times what they were in December 2019. “This $900 billion in excess savings will undoubtedly be spent once life returns to normal… it’s the dry powder that will fuel a rapid recovery,” said Thornberg. Relatedly, the forecast notes that overall personal wealth in the U.S. has actually increased over the course of the current recession.
Despite the optimism, the new outlook is based on the assumption that the virus will be brought under control and health-mandated closures and restrictions will continue to ease. Economic recovery is highly contingent on containing the spread of the disease and there continues to be uncertainty surrounding the nation’s ability to do that effectively and quickly, according to the outlook. Additionally, while they may not drag down the macroeconomic numbers, there are clearly individuals and sectors suffering, and the new forecast is critical of the blunt, disproportional, and poorly thought-out way in which the immense Federal stimulus has been distributed, with aid not reaching those who need it and funds going to many who don’t.
In California, the recovery that has been underway since April slowed following the resurgence in new COVID-19 cases in the state in June. More recently, however, the number of new cases has started to decline. “While we are far from smooth sailing, cases and hospitalizations have been dropping in California as of late August, a critical trend for the state’s economic recovery,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “The hope, of course, is that containment continues and that job gains accelerate later in the year.”
At this point, given that mandated restrictions remain in place, Osman estimates that August’s numbers, when available, will show strong but not ‘blow out” employment gains in the state. California has launched a new four-tiered reopening plan, with 38 of the state’s 58 counties currently landing in the most restrictive tier. Counties are able to move to less restrictive tiers, which allow more businesses to open and more activities to resume, as their daily virus case numbers and positivity rates decrease.
View the full outlook here.
Business
Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce to Lead California Delegation at GITEX GLOBAL 2023 in Dubai
Fostering Technological Synergy: Bridging the Tech Gap with Global Partners
Demonstrating the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce’s (IERCC) commitment to global tech collaboration and innovation, the organization will lead a California delegation to the world-renowned GITEX GLOBAL event in Dubai from October 16-20, 2023. Though the original invitation extended to IERCC’s President & CEO, Mr. Edward Ornelas, Jr., he will not be in attendance. Instead, the California delegation will be spearheaded by the Chamber’s newly-appointed CTO, Mr. Gabriel Rangel.
Organized by the Dubai World Trade Centre, GITEX GLOBAL 2023 promises to be grander than ever. The event is set to host over 6,000 exhibiting companies and startups, drawing more than 170,000 tech and business executives from over 170 countries. The mega-event will sprawl across 41 vast halls and, for the first time ever, will be held at two prominent venues – the iconic Dubai World Trade Centre and the new Dubai Harbour for Expand North Star, making it the host for the world’s largest startup event.
Mr. Edward Ornelas, Jr. commented, “While I regret not attending GITEX personally, I am proud to have Mr. Rangel at the helm of this effort. I’m confident that our delegation will foster new collaborations and present the Golden State as a tech powerhouse.”
This year’s conference adopts the compelling theme of “The Year to Imagine AI in Everything”. Attendees are poised to witness the grandest showcase of AI tech giants and industry frontrunners. Additionally, it promises to kindle profound dialogues and debates concerning the socio-economic implications of burgeoning AI technology.
“Leading the California delegation at GITEX offers us an unmatched platform to nurture and solidify relationships with global tech partners,” said Mr. Gabriel Rangel, CTO of IERCC. “As the technology landscape continues to evolve, it’s critical for us to be a part of these international collaborations. I’m honored to spearhead this mission on behalf of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce.”
An integral part of the California delegation, Mr. Ram Thanapandian, Principal Technology Consultant to the State of California and Chair of CA State Treasurer Fiona Ma’s Technical Advisory Commission, will be present, providing invaluable insights and representing the State of California Treasurer’s Office.
IERCC’s leadership in organizing this delegation underscores the crucial role that California plays in the global tech ecosystem and mirrors Dubai’s ambitious vision as encapsulated in the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33). This strategy aims to substantially expand Dubai’s economic landscape in the upcoming decade, securing its stature among the world’s leading global cities.
Trixie LohMirmand, Executive Vice President of the Dubai World Trade Centre and CEO of KAOUN International, remarked on the invaluable contributions the California delegation will bring to the event. She looks forward to an event marked by knowledge-sharing, collaboration, and pioneering discussions.
For additional information on GITEX GLOBAL 2023, please refer to: GITEX 2023 Preview.
Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Bizz Buzz
Webb Investments acquires Silver Creek Industries, an industry leader in modular construction for schools
Webb Investments today announced the launch of a new company, Silver Creek Modular, after acquiring the assets of Silver Creek Industries, a highly respected modular construction company known for bringing innovative, sustainable and cost-effective solutions to the education industry.
Silver Creek Industries’ existing business, including its employees and its Perris, Calif., manufacturing facility, will remain with the new company, with Webb providing the investment capital, resources and expertise to enhance Silver Creek’s presence in the modular construction marketplace.
The acquisition closed in June of 2023, following Silver Creek Industries’ Chapter 11 filing in the Central Bankruptcy Court of California.
“We are thrilled to have the opportunity to bring Silver Creek into our family business, and look forward to building on our shared commitment to improving educational opportunities within communities across our region,” said Kiana Webb, CEO of Webb Family Enterprises. “This acquisition aligns with our strategy to invest in established firms that can help us drive community revitalization and inclusive growth, while improving quality of life and increasing economic output.”
Silver Creek Industries was founded in 2004 and has completed more than 1,000 projects in the education, commercial, medical, military, government and multi-family housing markets. More recently, the company’s focus has been on providing high-quality, sustainable modular buildings for schools and educational institutions. Silver Creek Industries is well known for delivering projects on time and on budget, with minimal disruption to school and the community.
Webb Investments is a privately held, family-owned company focusing on creating a community development ecosystem that drives inclusive, organic growth and transforms the areas they serve.
For more information on Webb Investments, please visit webbinvestments.com.
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