Business
Recession Over; Economy Forecasted to Have a Rapid Recovery, but Long Term Consequences Are Still Unknown
“This natural disaster is a different kind of shock to the system than a typical business cycle. Natural Disasters, as tragic as they come, do not have long-run economic consequences.” –Christopher Thornberg Ph.D.
Written by: Rachel Silverman | Freelance Reporter for IEBJ
Thursday, June 24th, the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce hosted the 5th Annual San Bernardino County Economic Forecast Conference at The Enterprise Building in Downtown San Bernardino, co-hosted by the UCR School of Business: Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. Christopher Thornberg. Ph.D., the Director of the UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development, led the forecast report.
Edward Ornelas, Jr., President & CEO of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce opened the conference with welcome remarks. Guests also heard a brief update from San Bernardino County’s 5th District Supervisor Mr. Joe Baca. Jian Torkin, a Commercial Real Estate Developer at RDICO provided a virtual presentation and update regarding the Downtown San Bernardino Carousel Mall redevelopment project. Earlier in the year, the City of San Bernardino voted 6-1 awarding RDICO the contract as master developer of the now vacant Carousel Mall. RDICO is a joint venture between two developer agencies — Renaissance Downtowns USA & ICO Group of Companies, hence “RDICO”. Additional reports and forecasting were provided by Patrick Adler, Ph.D.
Despite recent contradicting headlines about the state of the economy, Christopher Thornberg brought data to the table to truly explain the current state of California’s economy in response to the COVID-19 crisis.
“This was going to be a rapid economic recovery, regardless, because that’s what happens after natural disasters come to an end.” But with the addition of the priorly upcoming presidential election, both parties became embroiled in a contest of lobbing money at the economy. “This has taken what was going to be a rapid recovery and turned it into a rocket ship recovery.” Here Thornberg is referencing the $3.5 trillion in stimulus checks and tax relief provisions granted under the Trump administration and the addition of the $1.9 trillion relief plan added to the national debt under the Biden administration.
“That’s not costless.” Thornberg warns when referring to the stimulus, “When you are using fiscal policy and borrowing trillions of dollars when you are not using monetary policy and expanding the money supply at a record pace, there are very real consequences to those policy decisions. The gains we got relative to the cost we could face do not match up.”
“Right now, the recession is officially over.” declares Thornberg. The Pandemic Recession’s contraction has officially ended and was extremely short. It seems economic activity bottomed out sometime in April 2020, about 6 weeks after the February peak. Personal Income has gradually been rising since then (with a small dip in late October- early November,) and now we’re back to where we were before everything shut down.
But what about unemployment rates? “We’re below 6% right now. Of course, it’s still a little bit elevated.” But demand for labor isn’t weak, and yet jobs are down. “There were 9.3 million job openings in April. That’s the highest it’s ever been.” This is not a labor demand shortage; this is a labor supply shortage.
Now, why is this happening? Unemployment rates in California were at 7.9% as of May. This is in comparison to the historic high that occurred in April 2020 at 16%. For even more reference California’s historic low was not much before that in November of 2019 at 4.1%. Thornberg wants to make it known that it’s not as simple as ‘people just don’t want to work.’ “Some of it is just basic skill matches. You can’t just take a line cook and turn him into a manufacturing worker. It takes a little time.” This is especially prevalent in this cycle, where certain industries are still behind while others have surpassed pre-covid employment demand.
“Durable goods are way up, Services are way down,” Thornberg says. The fact of the matter is that some industries thrived during the pandemic. While restaurants closed down, sporting and hobby stores got more business than usual. That’s going to create an uneven recovery.
Another factor contributing to this phenomenon is the percentage of unemployed people who are temporarily laid off. “20% of people who are unemployed, well over a million, are actually in a temporary layoff. That means they’re not looking for a job. They’re waiting for their job to go back.”And some may say, ‘Well, there’s high unemployment payments, so people just don’t want to work.” Thornberg explains that it’s not so simple, “People have money in the bank, they’re not under a lot of financial stress. And that may mean they don’t want to work, and it may mean they just don’t want to work here.” He paints the picture for us, “Look; if you have money in the bank, you’re not gonna take the first retail job that shows up. You’re gonna wait for a job that’s gonna give you a career path. It isn’t necessarily a bad thing that people are taking their time.”
“The U.S. and California economies are going to take off like rockets in the second half of this year – and we’ll likely see higher-than-normal growth for at least two years, if not more.” ~ Christopher Thornberg
Empowering Economic Growth: CALED Conference Set to Unite Industry Leaders in Ontario
CALED’s ‘Growing Local Economies from the Ground Up’ Conference is being held in Ontario at the DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Ontario Airport on May 7-9. This event is co-hosted by the City of Ontario and San Bernardino County, with Jennifer McLain Hiramoto, CALED’s Chair of the Board and Derek Armstrong respectively representing their city and county as Co-Chairs of the event.
With over 950 members and 45 years of empowering economic developers, CALED is the largest economic development association in the country and the annual conference is the number one place to meet and connect with the boots-on-the -ground, decision makers in our communities.
The conference will include a pre-conference teaching tour, ‘Building & Paying for Development Projects’ on May 6th and then begin in full on May 7th, with a welcome session and breakouts. Overall, there will be four general assembly sessions and 18 breakout sessions, which will delve into local economic development practices and innovative tools.
In addition to compelling content, the conference will have numerous opportunities to connect with community leaders and valued peers through networking receptions, the culinary crawl, and new this year, the Tournament of Champions, where conference attendees will navigate a gauntlet of games to win the grand prize on the evening of Thursday, May 8th.
To learn more about the conference and register, visit the CALED website at www.caled.org.
Business
Strengthening Community Connections: Our Exciting New Partnership with Toyota Arena, Ontario Convention Center, and GOCAL
Contributed Content | By Chris Venhoff, Senior Vice President and Inland Empire Market Leader for Consumer and Business Banking at U.S. Bank
As the Inland Empire market leader for U.S. Bank, I’m thrilled to share some exciting news: we are proud to be the Official Bank Partner of Toyota Arena and Ontario Convention Center. This partnership represents a reflection of our deep commitment to the Inland Empire and our dedication to fostering a vibrant, thriving community.
At U.S. Bank, we believe that strong partnerships drive meaningful progress. Toyota Arena and Ontario Convention Center are at the heart of the region’s culture and economy, bringing people together for world-class entertainment, business conventions, and community events. By joining forces, we’re not only expanding our presence but also creating opportunities to engage with residents, businesses, and organizations in ways that make a lasting impact.
Through our sponsorship, we’ll support concerts, sporting events, and conventions that showcase the diversity and energy of the Inland Empire. But this is only the beginning. As our partnership evolves, we’ll work closely with Toyota Arena, Ontario Convention Center, and GOCAL to introduce community-focused programs, including financial literacy workshops and charitable giving initiatives.
This partnership is designed to bring added value to the people we serve. For our customers, we’re introducing the U.S. Bank Fast Pass Lanes, providing priority access at Toyota Arena events. Special offers, exclusive event experiences, and tailored financial solutions for businesses operating in the region are just a few of the many perks we’re excited to roll out.
Our employees are at the core of our success, and this partnership allows us to recognize their dedication. Through exclusive access to events, corporate hospitality opportunities, and community volunteer programs, our team will have new ways to engage with and celebrate the community they serve.
The Inland Empire is a dynamic, fast-growing region, and we’re committed to supporting its continued success. By investing in Toyota Arena and Ontario Convention Center, we’re helping to create and sustain jobs while driving local business growth. These venues bring in visitors, revenue, and visibility, strengthening the region’s economy.
This collaboration is about more than just sponsorship—it’s about making a difference. By working together, we can elevate not just these venues but the entire Inland Empire. At U.S. Bank, we’re committed to being a partner in progress, supporting our customers, businesses, and communities every step of the way.
Honoring Visionary Leaders Driving Innovation and Community Impact
The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala, held at the Riverside Convention Center, celebrated the brightest entrepreneurial talent across the Inland Empire. Among the evening’s finalists was Edward Ornelas, Jr., President & CEO of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, who was honored in the Social Entrepreneur category for his outstanding leadership and commitment to the region.
Although Ornelas did not win, the Social Entrepreneur award went to Cesar Navarrete, President & CEO of Children’s Fund, a proud Chamber member. “Being a finalist alongside such remarkable leaders is an incredible honor,” said Ornelas. “I am especially thrilled to see Cesar, a Chamber member, recognized for the transformative work he’s doing to improve the lives of children in our community. It’s a proud moment for us all.”
Another highlight of the evening was the recognition of Hilda Kennedy, President & Founder of AMPAC Business Capital, another Chamber member, who was awarded the Top Female Entrepreneur category. Hilda’s leadership at AMPAC, a mission-driven business lender, has been instrumental in empowering small businesses and fostering economic growth across the region.
“It’s amazing to see leaders like Hilda and Cesar being celebrated for their contributions,” added Ornelas. “Their achievements underscore the talent and dedication of entrepreneurs in our Chamber and across the Inland Empire. They are setting the standard for excellence and impact in their fields.”
The evening also featured the prestigious “Best of the Best” Award, sponsored by Best Best & Krieger LLP, which was awarded to Mauro Gomez, Chief Growth Officer of Anita’s Mexican Foods Corp.. Based in San Bernardino, Anita’s Mexican Foods has grown from modest beginnings into a leader in the food production industry under Gomez’s strategic direction.
The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala continues to shine a spotlight on the transformative work of Inland Empire entrepreneurs, celebrating their innovation, resilience, and commitment to the community.
For more information about the Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards, visit https://www.spiritawardsie.com.
For more details about the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce and its members, visit www.iechamber.org.
|
Business Journal Newsletter
|
-
Construction2 months agoTricon Residential Expands California Housing with New Built-to-Rent Community in Corona
-
Entertainment3 months agoMain Event Joins Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce: Bringing Premier Family Entertainment to Montclair
-
Commercial Real Estate4 months agoValore Ventures Sells SoCal Single-Tenant NNN Retail Property
-
Business2 months agoStrengthening Community Connections: Our Exciting New Partnership with Toyota Arena, Ontario Convention Center, and GOCAL
-
Travel & Tourism3 months agoOntario International Airport to welcome STARLUX as its newest airline partner in June 2025
-
Travel & Tourism3 months agoOntario International Airport Expands Reach with New Daily Flights to Chicago O’Hare