Economy
Job Recovery, Housing Demand, Consumer Demand Heating Up Inland Empire Economy

Region Is Outperforming Along Multiple Measures
As the effects of pandemic-driven business closures and restrictions steadily diminish, and with California ‘officially reopened’, the economy of the Inland Empire is on a robust near-term growth trajectory, according to an analysis released today by the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. While some industries and workers continue to struggle, the region’s strength is especially apparent in job recovery and housing market metrics.
As of May, the latest numbers available, the Inland Empire’s labor market has added back 70% (145,700) of the jobs lost in the early months of 2020. This compares very favorably to the state as a whole (52%), and to other Southern California metros (Los Angeles 40%, San Diego 51%, Orange County 56%). While there is still some distance to go to reach pre-pandemic levels (total nonfarm employment in the region currently sits -4.2% below its February 2020 peak), significant consumer demand should drive hiring over the summer, according to the analysis.
The region’s housing market is also enjoying rapid growth, both historically and relative to other areas of Southern California. Indeed, housing has been the brightest spot in the local economy throughout the pandemic: From the first quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021, the Inland Empire’s median home price surged 18.5% compared to 17.8% in Los Angeles, 15.4% in San Diego, and 12.2% in Orange County. Over the same period, home sales jumped 24.3%, more than in any other metro in Southern California.
Part of this can be traced to the fact that the region continues to be the most affordable and has more room to grow. However, historically low inventories and mortgage interest rates have created an especially heated market.
“The driving pressure here is clear cut – demand for housing has increased markedly but supply has not,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at the UCR Center for Forecasting. “It’s an intensely competitive period where offers have soared far above asking prices and buyers are waiving inspections and other contingencies to get a leg up.” However, if fears of inflation are realized, mortgage rates are also likely to jump, which could sap some of the momentum from the market, according to Osman.
Additional Key Findings:
- Industry Impacts: Not surprisingly, the largest job losses in the Inland Empire have been in the Leisure and Hospitality sector with -33,200 fewer workers compared to February 2020 (-18.8%). And although pent up consumer demand should drive growth in this and other sectors heavily damaged by the pandemic, businesses are struggling to hire enough workers, which could slow recovery.
- COVID Containment Critical: As of mid-June, the 7-day moving average for new daily cases of COVID-19 in the Inland Empire has dropped below 100, an enormous improvement over the 7,000 daily cases occurring early this year. Vaccinations have played a key role and continued reduction of the virus is critical to maintaining the economic recovery.
- Rising Rent: Asking rents in the Inland Empire grew 3.1% over the past year to $1,487 per-unit per month. Despite the growth, rent in the region is still more affordable than in Los Angeles ($1,974), San Diego ($1,859), and Orange ($1,973) Counties.
- Warehouses Are Hot: As e-commerce spending surged throughout the pandemic, so too did the demand for warehouse space. The vacancy rate among warehouse properties in the Inland Empire fell to 9.7% in the first quarter of 2021 even as 10 million square feet of new space was added to the region’s available stock.
The new Inland Empire Regional Intelligence Report was authored by Osman and Senior Research Associate Brian Vanderplas. View the full analysis here.
Business
Economist Christopher Thornberg, State Treasurer Fiona Ma Headline New Forecast Conference

Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Economy
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong
Bizz Buzz
Workforce Development Earns National Achievement Awards

#bizzbuzz
Inspired by the Board of Supervisors’ commitment to meet the needs of employers and jobseekers and foster a vibrant local economy, the San Bernardino County Workforce Development Department has been honored with eight 2023 Achievement Awards from the National Association of Counties (NACo).
Among the services and initiatives for which WDB was honored were the Rapid Response Community Resource Fair, Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program and, in partnership with the Public Defender’s office, the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs.
Thanks to strong and stable leadership and policy direction from Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe and her colleagues on the Board of Supervisors, San Bernardino County received a record-breaking 160 NACo awards this year. The awards reflect the Board’s efforts to cultivate the innovation that leads to the development of outstanding public service programs.
The NACo awards recognize the best of the best among county governments across the U.S. Nationwide, 40,000 county elected officials and 3.6 million county employees provide important services, such as caring for our physical and mental health, maintaining roads, ensuring public safety, strengthening environmental stewardship, administering elections and much more.
“The Workforce Development programs and services recognized by NACo highlight the extraordinary work being done by Workforce Development to enhance career opportunities for our residents and help businesses grow,” Rowe said.
The first Rapid Response Community Resource Fair was developed shortly after United Furniture Industries (UFI) abruptly laid off more 300 employees in the High Desert without advance notice just days before Thanksgiving 2022. When Workforce Development was alerted, staff quickly mobilized businesses and community partners to help connect those laid off to available employment opportunities, as well as various other community resources. Approximately 275 of the affected UFI employees were offered new employment opportunities as a result.
The Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program was a pilot program that tapped into the wide-reaching business network of chambers of commerce. This collaboration between WDB and various chambers of commerce throughout the county was designed to leverage the relationship between chambers and small businesses to build awareness and accessibility to Workforce Development services available to them. Outcomes as a result of this partnership include various successful services including job listings, job fairs, positions filled, and job training assistance, among others.
Perhaps the most impactful program receiving this recognition is the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs. Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s Office have partnered with businesses and community organizations to increase economic access and equity. The partnership was designed to bring critical resources directly into the community – to churches, community centers, community colleges, and America’s Job Centers – for those looking to remove barriers and increase their access to employment opportunities and other services. The Public Defender helps participants by providing expungement or record clearing services, and Workforce Development brings employers with job opportunities, all within the same location. The events have been well received and proven useful to the community, making this a long-term partnership, not only between Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s office but a long list of other community organizations that have also participated.
“Our team and board feel fortunate to be recognized for these awards,” said William Sterling, chairman of the Workforce Development Board. “The underlying factor of the programs being recognized are partnerships. We feel fortunate for our staff and the relationships developed with other departments and organizations and the impact these services have had within our communities, which is at the core of what public service is supposed to be.”
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