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California Job Recovery Halts For First Time In Eight Months; Covid Resurgence Does Not Bode Well For Near Term Future

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State Unemployment Rate Grows But Workforce Also Expands

California’s labor market saw its first loss of jobs since April, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. Total nonfarm employment in the state declined by 52,200 positions over the month.

Over the course of 2020, California’s economy shed 1.4 million jobs, the first time the state has recorded an annual loss of jobs since 2009. It is important to note that annual figures will be revised and finalized by the California Employment Development Department in March and are subject to change. 

Since the depths of the labor market downturn in April, only 44% of the jobs lost in California have been recovered. In December, there were 1.5 million fewer people employed in the state than in February 2020. Total nonfarm employment has contracted by 8.3% since February. This pace of growth trails the nation overall, where the number of jobs has shrunk by 6.5% over the same period.

“Unfortunately, California’s job losses in December were not unexpected,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the UCR Center for Forecasting. “As the spread of Covid-19 was rampant in the state’s major population centers, business closures to contain the spread of the virus also came at the cost of jobs. The situation is unlikely to improve much in January, although, for the first time, there is some real hope, with the roll out of vaccines, that the labor market can pick up real momentum in the spring.”

California’s unemployment rate grew to 9.0% in December, up from 8.1% in the previous month, and the number of workers on the state’s unemployment rolls expanded by 163,700. California’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 6.7% rate in the United States overall. At the beginning of 2020, the state’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9%, meaning it has more than doubled over the course of the year.  In a positive sign, California’s labor force continued to expand in December, growing by 72,200, as workers felt encouraged and returned to the labor market. Over the course of 2020, the state’s labor force – a measure of both those working and those who are looking for work – declined by just over half a million workers.

Industry Profile

  • December’s job losses were concentrated in a just handful of sectors.
  • Leisure & Hospitality led payroll declines in December, where the number of jobs contracted by 117,000. This ended the slow recovery that was underway in the sector. During 2020, 610,900 jobs have been lost in the sector, a decline of 30%, for the year.
  • Other sectors posting significant declines during the month were Other Services (-11,000), a sector which includes hairdressers and nail salons, Manufacturing (-3,600), Education (-2,400), Real Estate (-2,000), and Management (-1,600).
  • The Construction sector led payroll gains in December, increasing by 31,600 during the month. With this showing, Construction sector payrolls are up 0.3% over the last year.
  • Other sectors posting significant gains during the month were Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (20,300), Administrative Support (10,900), Health Care (8,500), Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities (6,000), and Information (5,200).
  • During 2020, only three sectors experienced job gains in the state: Construction (+2,900), Finance and Insurance (+11,100), and Professional Scientific & Technical Services (+2,400). The biggest job losses occurred in Leisure & Hospitality (-610,900), Educational & Health Services (-135,200) and Retail Trade (-105,000).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally job declines were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest decrease, where payrolls fell by 33,400 positions during the month. Orange County (-7,800), San Diego (-3,500), Ventura (-2,700), and the Inland Empire (-2,200) also saw payrolls drop during the month. Over the past year, El Centro (-9.4%) has experienced the steepest job losses in the region, measured by percentage decrease, followed by Los Angeles (MD) (-9.1%), Orange County (-8.5%), Ventura (-8.2%), the Inland Empire (-7.2%), and San Diego (-6.9%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, San Jose experienced the largest decrease, with payrolls falling by 7,800 positions in December. San Francisco (MD) (-6,700), San Rafael (MD) (-1,400), and Santa Rosa (-1,100) also saw payrolls decline during the month. From a year-over-year perspective, the San Francisco (MD) (-9.9%) has had the steepest declines in the Bay Area, followed by the East Bay (-9.6%), San Rafael (MD) (-9.5%), Santa Rosa (-9.2%), Vallejo (-8.8%), Napa (-8.0%), and San Jose (-6.9%).
  • In the Central Valley, Fresno and Visalia experienced the largest monthly decline in payrolls, with payrolls declining by 1,800 positions in each metro in December. Payrolls in Stockton (-700) and Modesto (-700) declined as well. Over the last year, Yuba (-14.5%) had the steepest declines, followed by Chico (-10.5%), Modesto (-8.7%), Bakersfield (-8.1%), Hanford (-7.2%), Merced (-7.0%), and Stockton (-6.9%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, San Luis Obispo added the largest number of jobs, with payrolls increasing by 2,200 during the month. In contrast, payrolls in Santa Barbara (-300), Santa Cruz (-200), and Salinas (-200) declined during the month. From a year-over-year perspective, Santa Cruz (-13.0%) shed positions at the fastest rate, followed by San Luis Obispo (-11.6%), Salinas (-10.3%), and Santa Barbara (-7.5%).

Career & Workplace

The City of Rancho Cucamonga Recognized as U.S. Best-in-Class Employer by Gallagher 

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Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Benchmarking Analysis Identifies U.S. Organizations That Excel in Optimizing Employee and Organizational Wellbeing 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga participated in Gallagher’s 2023 U.S. Benefits Strategy & Benchmarking Survey and was identified as an organization that excelled in implementing successful strategies for managing people and programs. The City of Rancho Cucamonga was recognized for its comprehensive framework for strategically investing in benefits, compensation and employee communication to support the health, financial security and career growth of its employees at a sustainable cost structure. 

Designations like Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Employer help current and potential employees understand and appreciate an organization’s workplace culture and people strategy; important differentiators as employers compete for talent in today’s labor market. 

“This award is a testament to the collective dedication and unwavering commitment of our team, reflecting the high standards we uphold in fostering a workplace that thrives on innovation, belonging, and employee well-being.” Robert Neiuber, Senior Human Resources Director, City of Rancho Cucamonga. 

A U.S. Best-in-Class Employer, the City of Rancho Cucamonga was assigned points based on its relative performance in: 

  • Plan horizons for benefits and compensation strategies 
  • Extent of the wellbeing strategy 
  • Turnover rate for full-time equivalents (FTEs) 
  • Completion of a workforce engagement survey 
  • Use of an HR technology strategy and its level of sophistication 
  • Difference in healthcare costs over the prior year 
  • Use of a communication strategy 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga understands that high employee expectations haven’t budged in the changing labor market and have regularly examined their formula to attract and retain talent,” said William F. Ziebell, CEO of Gallagher’s Benefits & HR Consulting Division. “In doing so, the City of Rancho Cucamonga utilizes data, workforce feedback tools and clearly defined policies to provide competitive benefits and experiences that their employees value.” 

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Career & Workplace

California Labor Market Closes out 2023 with Modest Growth, but Expect Adjustments when Annual Revision Hits in March

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State’s Workforce Contracts Again; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

California’s labor market grew modestly in the latest numbers, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. Total nonfarm employment in the state expanded by just 23,400 positions in December, however, the sum of California’s metropolitan areas showed a more robust increase of 55,100 positions. November’s gains were revised down to 8,100 in the latest numbers, a 1,200 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 9,300.

“Although job and labor force growth has been muted, we caution against reading too much into these figures because this is the last release before the annual benchmark revisions in March,” said Justin Niakamal, Research Manager at Beacon Economics.

As of December 2023, California had recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 508,100 more people employed in California compared to pre-pandemic February 2020. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.9% since that time compared to a 3.2% increase nationally. California increased payrolls by 1.7% from December 2022 to December 2023, matching the 1.7% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.7% rate in the United States overall. California is continuing to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 3,600 in December. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 243,800 workers, a 1.2% decline. 

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, gains were mixed. Healthcare led payroll gains in December, with payrolls expanding by 9,100, an increase of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains Healthcare payrolls are now 10.8% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Government was the next best performing sector, adding 8,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.3%. However, with these gains Government payrolls are still 0.3%, or 28,400 jobs, below their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Leisure and Hospitality (7,100 or 0.3%), Education (4,100 or 1.0%), Manufacturing (2,600 or 0.2%), Other Services (1,300 or 0.2%), Wholesale Trade (1,200 or 0.2%), Retail Trade (1,100 or 0.1%), and Real Estate (1,100 or 0.4%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in December. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities experienced the largest payroll declines, with payrolls falling by 4,400, a decline of 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. Other sectors posting declines during the month were Administrative Support (-4,100 or -0.4%), Finance and Insurance (-2,200 or -0.4%), Information (-1,900 or -0.3%), Management (-400 or -0.2%), and Mining and Logging (-200 or -1.0%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. The Los Angeles County (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 17,800 (04%) during the month. Orange County (6,800 or 0.4%), the Inland Empire (6,400 or 0.4%), San Diego (5,500 or 0.3%), Ventura (500 or 0.2%), and El Centro (200 or 0.3%) also saw their payrolls jump. Over the past year, Ventura (2.6%) experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (2.1%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.1%), the Inland Empire (1.9%), El Centro (1.9%), and San Diego (1.5%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) (6,500 or 0.5%) had the largest increase during the month. San Jose (3,000 or 0.3%), Napa (400 or 0.5%, Santa Rosa (400 or 0.2%), and San Rafael (MD) (200 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls expand. Over the past 12 months, Santa Rosa (2.9%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Rafael (MD) (2.4%), the East Bay (1.9%), San Francisco (MD) (1.3%), Vallejo (1.3%), San Jose (1.1%), and Napa (0.8%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 2,400 (0.2%) positions in December. Payrolls in Fresno (1,500 or 0.4%), Merced (600 or 0.9%), Modesto (600 or 0.3%), Madera (300 or 0.7%), Redding (200 or 0.3%), and Yuba (200 or 0.4%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, Sacramento (2.8%) enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Yuba (2.7%), Modesto (2.7%), Hanford (2.4%), Fresno (2.2%), Visalia (1.9%), Bakersfield (1.1%), Stockton (0.6%), Madera (0.5%), Chico (0.3%), Merced (-0.3%), and Redding (-1.6%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara (900 or 0.4%) added the largest number of jobs. Santa Cruz (500 or 0.5%) and San Luis Obispo (400 or 0.3%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From December 2022 to December 2023, Salinas (4.61%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Barbara (3.4%), San Luis Obispo (2.7%), and Santa Cruz (2.4%).
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Business

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce Announces the 2024 Human Resources Conference, led by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Rudd & Romo (AALRR)

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Uniting Leaders, Shaping Futures: Charting the Next Course in Human Resources

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting and presented by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo (AALRR), announces the much-anticipated 2024 Human Resources Conference. Scheduled for February 15th, 2024, at the Jessie Turner Center, this event is set to be a landmark gathering for HR and business leaders.

Event Details:

  • Date: February 15th, 2024
  • Venue: Jessie Turner Center, [Full Address]
  • Title: 2024 2nd Annual Inland Empire HR Summit: Shaping the Future of Human Resources

The conference is hosted by The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting. AALRR, a leading full-service law firm, is the presenting sponsor, bringing their extensive legal expertise in employment and labor to the forefront of the event.

“We are thrilled to sponsor and present at the upcoming 2024 Human Resources Conference,” said Amber Solano, AALRR’s Private Labor and Employment Law Practice Group Chair. “With all of the recent changes in the law, we feel this is going to be a valuable event for human resource and business leaders throughout the region.”

The conference offers an invaluable platform for professionals to engage with evolving trends and innovations in HR, preparing them to lead in the changing world of work.

Special Highlights:

  • Renowned HR thought leaders as keynote speakers.
  • Networking opportunities with industry experts and peers.
  • A special focus session by AALRR on the evolving legal landscape in human resources.

“The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce is proud to collaborate with Insight HR consulting and leading speakers AALRR.  This partnership strengthens our commitment to delivering a conference that truly impacts the HR and Business community.” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., CEO.

For the event schedule, registration, and sponsorship details, please visit hr.iechamber.org

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