Economy
Affordable Inland Empire? Fewer Than One-Third Of IE Households Can Afford To Buy A Home In One Of Southern California’s ‘Most Affordable’ Housing Markets

Despite Recessionary Fears, IE Labor Market Continues To Show Strength; Demand For Warehouse Space Surges As E-Commerce Spending Continues
Throughout the pandemic, the Inland Empire’s relatively affordable housing market has been a bright spot in the local economy and home price growth has outpaced more expensive neighboring areas. That affordability, however, has diminished in the face of today’s higher mortgage rates and in the context of elevated demand and extraordinarily high-priced markets across the state, according to an analysis released today by the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
Today, only 31% of local households can afford to purchase a median-priced home in the Inland Empire, a decrease from a relatively low 39% in the first quarter of 2021. Still, the region remains one of the most affordable in all of Southern California and is more affordable than the state as a whole where just 24% of households can afford a median-priced home.
“Honestly, this is what affordability looks like in California,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at the UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report’s authors. “Housing prices are at the crux of the state’s famously high cost of living and are out of reach to the majority of the population as lack of supply enduringly and severely lags demand.” The contrast with the nation overall, where 45% of households can afford median-priced homes, is stark.
As of April 2022, there were only 1.7 months of housing supply available for purchase in Riverside County and 2.2 months in San Bernardino County. A balanced market typically has 6 to 7 months of supply. Moreover, homebuyer demand, which intensified due to the pandemic-driven economic stimulus, remains high as home sales decrease in the face of limited inventory.
Key Findings Include:
- No Labor Market Slowdown Yet: Despite growing recessionary fears, the short-term economic forecast for the Inland Empire is strong. The labor market continues to show vigor with an unemployment rate (3.7%) that is lower than it was pre-pandemic (4.1%). More than 280,000 jobs have been added in the region since April 2020, surpassing the 228,000 that were lost due to pandemic-related shutdowns.
- Inflation Chips Away At Wage Growth: Local wage growth has been strongest in Riverside County where wages increased 3% from the third quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021 (the latest data available). Wages in San Bernardino County have grown 1.7%. Despite the upturn, real wages decreased during the year due to high inflation.
- Consumer Demand, Fuel Prices Send Taxable Sales Soaring: Taxable sales receipts in the Inland Empire jumped a hefty 23.8% in the latest annual data. The surge has been primarily driven by high fuel prices and more spending in the Business and Industry category where receipts swelled 57%. Fuel and Service Station receipts expanded almost as much (56%).
- E-Commerce Trends Keep Warehouse Space Red Hot: In the last edition of this report, the vacancy rate among warehouse properties in the Inland Empire was an already low 3.6%. As of the first quarter of 2022 (the latest data available), the vacancy rate has fallen to 3.2% despite a whopping 34.6 million square feet of new space coming online. Driven by strong consumer spending in E-Commerce, warehouse space has become increasingly scarce and asking rents in the Inland Empire grew 6.3% in the latest data. But the region is still more affordable than Los Angeles, San Diego, or Orange Counties.
- Rental Market Surges: Demand for apartments continued to intensify in the Inland Empire over the last year with the vacancy rate falling to 3% and asking rents expanding by more than 21% to reach an average of $1,807 per month per unit. But even with the increase, rent in the region is significantly more affordable then in Los Angeles ($2,236), Orange ($2,335), and San Diego ($2,226) Counties.
The new Inland Empire Regional Intelligence Report was authored by Osman and Senior Research Associate Brian Vanderplas. The analysis examines how the Inland Empire’s labor market, real estate markets, and other areas of the economy have recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic and their outlook for the remainder of the year.
The complete analysis is available here.
Business
Economist Christopher Thornberg, State Treasurer Fiona Ma Headline New Forecast Conference

Coming October 5th
Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead?
The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino, is thrilled to announce that the anticipated economic forecast conference, Economic Horizon 2024: What Lies Ahead, Inland Empire? will be held October 5th from 3:30 PM to 6:30 PM at the El Prado Golf Courses in the vibrant city of Chino, California.
Esteemed economist, Dr. Christopher Thornberg will present complete outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. “The Inland Empire stands at the crossroads of remarkable economic opportunities and challenges,” said Thornberg. “I’m excited to unpack the trends and shifts that will define the region’s economic landscape in the next year, and beyond.”
Known for his razor-sharp observations, and fun, energized delivery, Thornberg’s presentation will include pointed discussions about inflation, the Fed’s next move, housing markets, strengths and instabilities in the economy, and what current trends mean for the nation, state, and local region.
The conference will also be graced by the insights of California State Treasurer Fiona Ma as keynote speaker. In her words, “The strength of California’s economy is deeply interwoven with the growth trajectories of its regions. The Inland Empire, with its dynamism and resilience, is a testament to this synergy. I am honored to join ‘Economic Horizon 2024’ and share a vision where policies, partnerships, and potentials converge to elevate the Inland Empire to unprecedented economic heights.”
“This conference is a testament to the collaborative spirit of the Inland Empire and our commitment to fostering a robust, resilient economy,” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce. “Our partnership with Beacon Economics and the County of San Bernardino aims to offer a platform for profound economic discussion, forecasting, and strategic future planning.”
Attendees can anticipate not only expert insights into the economy but also networking opportunities and a chance to connect with key business, government, and nonprofit leaders from across the region.
Full event details are available at: economy.iechamber.org
Economy
The Recession That Didn’t Happen… And Why Most Forecasters Got It Wrong
Bizz Buzz
Workforce Development Earns National Achievement Awards

#bizzbuzz
Inspired by the Board of Supervisors’ commitment to meet the needs of employers and jobseekers and foster a vibrant local economy, the San Bernardino County Workforce Development Department has been honored with eight 2023 Achievement Awards from the National Association of Counties (NACo).
Among the services and initiatives for which WDB was honored were the Rapid Response Community Resource Fair, Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program and, in partnership with the Public Defender’s office, the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs.
Thanks to strong and stable leadership and policy direction from Board of Supervisors Chair Dawn Rowe and her colleagues on the Board of Supervisors, San Bernardino County received a record-breaking 160 NACo awards this year. The awards reflect the Board’s efforts to cultivate the innovation that leads to the development of outstanding public service programs.
The NACo awards recognize the best of the best among county governments across the U.S. Nationwide, 40,000 county elected officials and 3.6 million county employees provide important services, such as caring for our physical and mental health, maintaining roads, ensuring public safety, strengthening environmental stewardship, administering elections and much more.
“The Workforce Development programs and services recognized by NACo highlight the extraordinary work being done by Workforce Development to enhance career opportunities for our residents and help businesses grow,” Rowe said.
The first Rapid Response Community Resource Fair was developed shortly after United Furniture Industries (UFI) abruptly laid off more 300 employees in the High Desert without advance notice just days before Thanksgiving 2022. When Workforce Development was alerted, staff quickly mobilized businesses and community partners to help connect those laid off to available employment opportunities, as well as various other community resources. Approximately 275 of the affected UFI employees were offered new employment opportunities as a result.
The Economic Recovery Business Outreach Program was a pilot program that tapped into the wide-reaching business network of chambers of commerce. This collaboration between WDB and various chambers of commerce throughout the county was designed to leverage the relationship between chambers and small businesses to build awareness and accessibility to Workforce Development services available to them. Outcomes as a result of this partnership include various successful services including job listings, job fairs, positions filled, and job training assistance, among others.
Perhaps the most impactful program receiving this recognition is the Record Clearing, Resource and Employment Fairs. Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s Office have partnered with businesses and community organizations to increase economic access and equity. The partnership was designed to bring critical resources directly into the community – to churches, community centers, community colleges, and America’s Job Centers – for those looking to remove barriers and increase their access to employment opportunities and other services. The Public Defender helps participants by providing expungement or record clearing services, and Workforce Development brings employers with job opportunities, all within the same location. The events have been well received and proven useful to the community, making this a long-term partnership, not only between Workforce Development and the Public Defender’s office but a long list of other community organizations that have also participated.
“Our team and board feel fortunate to be recognized for these awards,” said William Sterling, chairman of the Workforce Development Board. “The underlying factor of the programs being recognized are partnerships. We feel fortunate for our staff and the relationships developed with other departments and organizations and the impact these services have had within our communities, which is at the core of what public service is supposed to be.”
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