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U.S. Economic Growth Will Slow in 2019, But Will Not Stop; Predictions For a Recession This Year Have ‘Little Basis in Reality’, Says New Forecast

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California’s Housing Shortage Jeopardizes State’s Economic FutureBut No Near-Term Downturn in Sight, Despite Recent Slowing

March 14, 2019—LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA—Following solid growth in 2018, public sentiment about the U.S. economy has turned remarkably – and unnecessarily – grim, according to a new forecast released today by Beacon Economics. Driving the pessimism could be anything from the recent stock market slump to slowing home sales to the fear of an expanding trade war, but according to the new forecast, nothing on near-term horizon has the capacity to cause a downturn, much less a recession.

“Growth in the U.S. economy will certainly slow this year from 2018 levels,” Christopher Thornberg  Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and one of the forecast authors. “But this is because the sugar rush and short-term stimulative boost created by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is wearing off – as expected.” Thornberg notes that while there have been weaker-than-normal numbers in some economic data, they are in line with the normal ebb and flow of growth. Moreover, fundamental indicators of economic health such as the consumer savings rate, wage growth, and debt levels all look good.

The new forecast has U.S. economic growth falling to the low 2% range this year from 2.9% in 2018, and expects labor markets to continue adding jobs, although at a slower rate. “The current economic expansion has been historic and it will come to an end, but that end has to be driven by a large, rapid, and negative shock to the economy – we simply don’t see any imbalance right now that has the capacity to knock economic growth off its rails this year.”

One of the main sources of the current angst revolves around the flattening of the U.S. housing market. While the new forecast acknowledges a slowdown, it argues that housing has shifted to neutral but has not moved towards anything resembling a decline. Home prices, in particular, are still rising. According to the forecast, as 2019 progresses, housing market activity will likely pick up.

At the state level, California’s economy is increasingly hampered by the state’s housing shortage and a greater sense of urgency has developed around the issue as reflected by more aggressive action from Governor Gavin Newsom and the State Legislature. Still, current housing market conditions are in flux. “Because of a spike in mortgage rates in late 2018, home sales got off to a slow start this year,” said Robert Kleinhenz, Beacon Economics’ Executive Director of Research and one of the forecast authors “Rates have retreated since then. Assuming they hold steady in the next few months, the peak season of 2019 could be better than many expect.”

Longer term, however, Kleinhenz says the chronic lack of home supply, and the high housing costs that deficit contributes to, is only growing in magnitude. “California needs to build far more homes than it has been building and the state’s economic future will be tied to our ability to do that,” said Kleinhenz. “But this is a stubborn, complicated problem and it’s taken a long time to get to where we are – it won’t be solved overnight.” Part of the complexity, he notes, lies in the fact that efforts at the state level to increase housing venture into land use policymaking, which has historically been the purview of local jurisdictions, making it challenging to craft a comprehensive solution.

Overall, the new forecast has California’s economy on a steady growth track for the first part of 2019. The unemployment rate in the state as a whole, and in many of its metro regions, continues to be at or near record lows, and job gains persist across nearly all of California’s industries.

View the full forecast report, Beaconomics, for additional insights.

 

Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. This analysis was authored by Christopher Thornberg and Robert Kleinhenz. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Inland Empire Celebrates Entrepreneurial Excellence at Spirit Awards Gala

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Honoring Visionary Leaders Driving Innovation and Community Impact

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala, held at the Riverside Convention Center, celebrated the brightest entrepreneurial talent across the Inland Empire. Among the evening’s finalists was Edward Ornelas, Jr., President & CEO of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, who was honored in the Social Entrepreneur category for his outstanding leadership and commitment to the region.

Although Ornelas did not win, the Social Entrepreneur award went to Cesar Navarrete, President & CEO of Children’s Fund, a proud Chamber member. “Being a finalist alongside such remarkable leaders is an incredible honor,” said Ornelas. “I am especially thrilled to see Cesar, a Chamber member, recognized for the transformative work he’s doing to improve the lives of children in our community. It’s a proud moment for us all.”

Another highlight of the evening was the recognition of Hilda Kennedy, President & Founder of AMPAC Business Capital, another Chamber member, who was awarded the Top Female Entrepreneur category. Hilda’s leadership at AMPAC, a mission-driven business lender, has been instrumental in empowering small businesses and fostering economic growth across the region.

“It’s amazing to see leaders like Hilda and Cesar being celebrated for their contributions,” added Ornelas. “Their achievements underscore the talent and dedication of entrepreneurs in our Chamber and across the Inland Empire. They are setting the standard for excellence and impact in their fields.”

The evening also featured the prestigious “Best of the Best” Award, sponsored by Best Best & Krieger LLP, which was awarded to Mauro Gomez, Chief Growth Officer of Anita’s Mexican Foods Corp.. Based in San Bernardino, Anita’s Mexican Foods has grown from modest beginnings into a leader in the food production industry under Gomez’s strategic direction.

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala continues to shine a spotlight on the transformative work of Inland Empire entrepreneurs, celebrating their innovation, resilience, and commitment to the community.

For more information about the Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards, visit https://www.spiritawardsie.com.

For more details about the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce and its members, visit www.iechamber.org.

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Inland Empire Chamber President Edward Ornelas, Jr. Named Finalist for Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards

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Celebrating Leadership and Innovation: Ornelas Recognized for Advancing Business Growth and Social Impact in the Inland Empire.

Edward Ornelas Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce and owner of the Inland Empire Business Journal, has been named a finalist in the famed 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards. Ornelas is honored in the Social Entrepreneur category for his remarkable leadership and vision in fostering business growth and development across the Inland Empire. The award ceremony will take place on November 21, 2024, at the Riverside Convention Center, celebrating the best of entrepreneurship throughout the region.

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards, often regarded as the “Oscars of Business” in the Inland Empire, recognizes the innovation, leadership, and impact of outstanding entrepreneurs across various sectors. Ornelas joins a select group of 34 finalists, each representing the entrepreneurial spirit and resilience that define the I.E. business community. The Social Entrepreneur category highlights individuals like Ornelas, whose work goes beyond profit to positively impact society.

In his role as President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, Ornelas has been a powerful advocate for the business community, connecting small businesses with essential resources and creating opportunities for growth. As the owner of the IE Business Journal, the only publication in the region dedicated solely to business news, Ornelas has provided a platform for local businesses to thrive by sharing their stories and promoting their success. His innovative, forward-thinking approach to marketing has earned him a reputation as a “visionary” and a “get-things-done” leader across both public and private sectors.

“I’m deeply honored to be recognized as a finalist for the 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards. This nomination is a reflection of the incredible businesses and community leaders across the Inland Empire who inspire me every day. At the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, our mission is to empower businesses and foster economic growth, and this recognition highlights the collective efforts of our entire community. I’m excited for what the future holds as we continue to work together to make a lasting impact,” said Ornelas.

Other notable finalists for the 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards include leaders in healthcare innovation, green technology, and digital transformation. Each finalist, selected by a distinguished panel of judges, represents the best in their respective industries and contributes to the Inland Empire’s continued growth as a hub of innovation and entrepreneurship.

The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards is an annual event that brings together business leaders, community advocates, and entrepreneurs to celebrate the entrepreneurial excellence that drives the region’s economy. This year’s event promises to be a night of inspiration and recognition, showcasing the achievements of finalists like Ornelas, who continue to elevate the Inland Empire’s business landscape.

For more information about the Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards and to see the full list of finalists, visit www.spiritawardsie.com

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CBRE Opens Newly Renovated, Tech-Enabled Office in the Inland Empire

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The office is designed to support hybrid work and employee wellbeing

CBRE announced the opening of its new 10,159-sq.-ft. office suite on the ground floor of 4141 Inland Empire Blvd., in Ontario, Calif.

The office is part of CBRE’s Workplace360 program, which features innovative office designs and functionality, including in-office technology and a wider variety of collaborative spaces designed to support hybrid working. CBRE launched its Workplace360 program over a decade ago in its downtown LA office. Since then, the company has opened more than 100 Workplace360 offices worldwide, continually updating the program as work habits have changed over the years, especially with the increase in hybrid work.

“Our newly renovated space provides us with a great opportunity to deliver a collaborative, experience-driven workplace that supports hybrid work,” said Ian Britton, managing director and market leader for CBRE in Inland Empire. “Our Workplace360 office will also serve as a showpiece to help clients conceptualize flexible work strategies for their employees.”

The renovated office has several different work areas including focus, huddle, living, and conference rooms. The open-space lobby, known as the “Heart,” features a variety of seating and a communal space for collaboration. A large 86” media display with a speaker system welcomes employees, visitors, and clients and assists with onsite events.

New office technology, including touch-enabled video conference rooms, allows for hybrid work collaboration between in-office and remote employees and clients. Additionally, the Mt. Baldy conference room has Liquid Galaxy, a geospatial visualization platform set across large format curved screens providing a cinematic presentation experience. This room has an operable wall that opens to the Heart, creating an onsite event space.

A cornerstone of the Workplace360 model is its free-address approach, in which there is no dedicated seating. The free-address approach allows employees who are in the office on a given day to use any workstation or office.

The office’s design led by CBRE Design Collective, took inspiration from the Inland Empire’s orange groves and mountainous landscapes of Mt. Baldy. Images of Route 66 from local photographer VC Torneden features the role the highway plays in the area. 

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