Connect with us

Career & Workplace

Ten years after the great recession gave it a knock out punch The Inland Empire has the fastest job growth among Southern Californias powerhouse economies

Published

on

Longer Term Vulnerabilities – Labor Shortages, Trade War Impacts, Surging National Debt – Challenge Future Economic Growth For Nation, State, and Region
October 11, 2018— RIVERSIDE, Calif. (www.ucr.edu) — Although the Inland Empire was hit harder by the Great Recession than most places in the nation, its economy today looks very different, according to an new economic forecast released at the 9th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference. For the second year in a row, the region is home to the fastest job growth in Southern California, and, according to the analysis, when looking at pre-recession job peaks, is the most improved among the major surrounding metros of Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange Counties.
 
From peak to trough, the Inland Empire lost 150,000 jobs and nonfarm employment fell 11.6%. Since bottoming out, however, the region has gained well over 350,000 jobs and nonfarm employment has increased 31%. 
 
“When an economy falls further during a downturn, it generally experiences a stronger relative recovery, but economic growth in the Inland Empire has been gaining momentum in recent years and is being strongly driven by its sharp affordability advantage, which has led to significant population gains,” said Christopher Thornberg  Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report authors. “And although there are longer term threats to the economy that stem from labor shortages, Federal trade policies, and our hugely expanded national debt, growth is expected to continue through the next year at the local, state, and national level.“
 
The Inland Empire also stands out because it is the most improved Southern California economy, according to the analysis. Compared to its pre-recession peak, the Inland Empire today has 16.1% more jobs; this surpasses Los Angeles (+5.6%), Orange (+6.6%), and San Diego (+11.0%) Counties, as well as the state (+10.6%) and nation (+7.7%). 
 
“The progress the Inland Empire economy has made over the past couple of years is the latest phase in a years-long growth wave that has included broad-based employment gains across most industries, higher income and more local spending, rising home prices, and, as of late, increased construction activity,” said Robert Kleinhenz Executive Director of Research at the Center and one of the report authors. “But growth is going to moderate in the relatively near future as a limited supply of workers will put a check on the region’s expansion.”
According to both Kleinhenz and Thornberg, there is a critical need to address California’s high housing costs and its labor shortages across skill levels in order to ensure healthy economic growth in the Inland Empire and beyond. The new forecast delivers current outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies.
 
Select Key Findings:
  • The jobs forecast in the Inland Empire calls for continued gains, with total nonfarm employment expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.0% in the near term, while the unemployment rate will drop to less than 4% in 2019.
  • The Inland Empire’s renowned Logistics industry is the region’s most improved, having nearly doubled in size over the past decade and with employment 90% above its pre-recession peak. The effects from the current trade tariffs, however, are yet to be seen.
  • The region has also enjoyed gains elsewhere, notably in Construction, Health Care, and Retail Trade, responding to continued growth in the region’s population and business activity.
  • As of the second quarter of 2018, the median nominal price of an existing single-family home in San Bernardino County was 17.2% below its pre-recession peak, while in Riverside County it was 9.7% less. If current trends continue, the forecast has nominal home prices in the region surpassing their pre-recession peak in 2020.
  • Growth in the U.S. economy looks solid for the rest of this year but will slow in 2019. Additionally, while there is no reason to expect a recession anytime soon, the long term stressors of heavy Federal borrowing, rising interest rates, and policy uncertainties, substantially diminish the nation’s capacity to absorb a blow to its economy; it won’t take much to end the current expansion.
  • High housing costs will impede California’s economic growth over the long-term to the extent they deter the state’s labor force from expanding. California’s labor force growth rate has slowed significantly since the fall of 2017, with year-to-year growth at just 0.2% as of July 2018.
The 9th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference is being held on October 11th at the Fox Performing Arts Center in Riverside, CA. In addition to forecasts for the nation, state, and region, the event includes a drilled down outlook for commercial real estate markets in the Inland Empire, illuminating current and future trends in retail, office, and industrial properties.
 
An embargoed copy of the forecast book can be downloaded in its entirety here. To attend the event, please contact Victoria Pike Bond (see above) for a press pass. 
 
The UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first major university forecasting center in Inland Southern California. The Center is dedicated to economic forecasting and policy research focused on the region, state, and nation. Learn more at UCREconomicForecast.org

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Career & Workplace

California Job Growth Sees Progress; State Accounts for One-Quarter of All Jobs Added in the Nation

Published

on

Labor Force Grows But Long Term Struggle With Worker Supply Continues

 California’s labor market continued to expand in April, with total nonfarm employment in the state growing by 67,000 positions over the month, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. March’s gains were also revised up to 11,900 in the latest numbers, a 3,200 increase from the preliminary estimate of 8,700.

“California accounted for roughly one-quarter of the jobs added in the nation during April,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “Despite all the talk of tech-sector lay-offs, the state’s economy has had a strong start to the year, adding jobs at a quicker rate than the nation as a whole.”

As of April 2023, California has recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 365,400 more people employed in the state compared to February 2020, the month before pandemic-related employment losses occurred. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.1% since the pre-pandemic peak compared to a 2.2% increase nationally. Annually, California increased payrolls by 2.4% from April 2022 to April 2023, trailing the 2.6% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in the latest numbers, which is elevated relative to the 3.4% rate in the United States overall. California is continuing to struggle with its labor supply, which grew by 32,700 in April, an increase of 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 196,400 workers, a 1.0% decline.

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were broad based. Health Care led the way in April, with payrolls expanding by 18,200 in that sector, an increase of 0.7% on a month-over-month basis. In other words, Health Care accounted for just over one in four of the net jobs added in the state in April. Health Care payrolls are now up 5.3% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Leisure and Hospitality  was the next best performing sector, adding 13,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.6%. Leisure and Hospitality payrolls are now down just 1.1% since February 2020 and they are on track to fully recover in the coming months.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (5,800 or 0.7%), Retail Trade (5,400 or 0.3%), Government  (4,500 or 0.2%), Other Services  (4,000 or 0.7%), and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,800 or 0.3%).
  • Payrolls decreased in only two sectors in April, and these declines were minor. The only sectors with job losses were Wholesale Trade (-900 or -0.1%) and Mining and Logging (-100 or -0.5%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 21,500 (0.5%) during the month. Orange County (8,900 or 0.5%), the Inland Empire (4,400 or 0.3%), San Diego (4,200 or 0.3%), Ventura (900 or 0.3%), and El Centro (100 or 0.2%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, El Centro (3.4%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (3.1%), San Diego (3.0%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.5%), Ventura (2.0%), and the Inland Empire (1.0%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, the East Bay experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 6,400 (0.5%) positions in April. San Francisco (MD)  (1,600 or 0.1%), San Rafael (MD) (1,100 or 1.0%), Santa Rosa (1,000 or 0.5%), and Vallejo (800 or 0.6%) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Over the past 12 months, Napa (3.5%) experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Jose (3.1%), Santa Rosa (3.0%), San Francisco (MD) (2.9%), Vallejo (2.4%), the East Bay (1.9%), and San Rafael (MD) (1.3%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 6,900 (0.6%) positions in April. Payrolls in Modesto (1,200 or 0.6%), Stockton (1,200 or 0.4%), Bakersfield (900 or 0.3%), Fresno (500 or 0.1%), Visalia (400 or 0.3%), Merced (300 or 0.4%), and Yuba (300 or 0.6%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, Yuba (3.8%) had the fastest growth, followed by Hanford (3.6%), Fresno (3.2%), Madera (3.1%), Redding (3.1%), Visalia (3.0%), Modesto (2.6%), Sacramento (2.5%), and Stockton (2.2%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Salinas (700 or 0.5%) added the largest number of jobs. Santa Cruz (300 or 0.3%) and Santa Barbara (300 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From April 2022 to April 2023, Salinas (3.78%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (3.4%), San Luis Obispo (2.9%), and Santa Barbara (2.5%).
Continue Reading

Career & Workplace

Morongo to Host Two Job Fairs in May

Published

on

The Morongo Casino Resort & Spa is seeking to fill dozens of positions across the property for nearly all departments.

The AAA-Four Diamond Morongo Casino Resort & Spa is preparing to meet surging summer demand by hosting two job fairs in May. The events will cover dozens of positions across the resort and its restaurants.

Set to take place in the new Marketplace food hall, the job fairs will occur on the 2nd and 16th:

  • May 2, 2023, 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. in the Marketplace food hall
  • May 16, 2023, 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. in the Marketplace food hall

“As we approach the summer season, we’re excited to bring on new team members to support our consistent growth and continue building a team that goes above and beyond for our guests,” said Richard St. Jean, Morongo’s Chief Operating Officer. “Those with hospitality and restaurant experience should consider joining us as we work together to exceed guest expectations and provide unforgettable experiences.”

The job fairs will include possible on-the-spot offers for several departments, including cash operations, count room, entertainment, food and beverage, hospitality, housekeeping, promotions, public safety and surveillance, and the Morongo Travel Center. Positions are also available at the Marketplace, a new upscale food hall by celebrity chef Fabio Viviani featuring seven gourmet eateries that allow diners to pay a single fee to experience cuisine from Italy, Mexico, South America, Asia, and the Southern United States.

Candidates are asked to complete an online application prior to attending the events, available at http://www.morongocasinoresort.com/employment.

Morongo offers competitive wages and benefits, including medical, dental and vision insurance options for full-time team members and dependents with affordable pricing, and life insurance options for full and part-time team members. Additional benefits include a 401(k) plan, vacation and jury duty pay, paid meal breaks and free meals. Team members receive discounts at Morongo restaurants and various enterprises, including Sage Spa, Canyon Lanes Bowling, and the Morongo Golf Club at Tukwet Canyon.

Continue Reading

Career & Workplace

California Storms Slow Jobs Growth in Key Sectors

Published

on

Unemployment Rate Remains Near A Historic Low But Still Higher Than Nation

California’s labor market grew slowly in March, with total nonfarm employment in the state expanding by just 8,700 positions, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics.

Recent extreme weather and flooding likely played a role in the slowdown as major storms hit California during the survey week and impacted sectors including Construction and Real Estate. February’s gains were also revised down to 21,800 in the latest numbers, a 10,500 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 32,300.

“Given the adverse weather last month, it’s difficult to get a true read on how California’s labor market actually performed,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “Interestingly, while labor markets in inland communities had been outperforming coastal communities since the start of the pandemic, we are now starting to see these differences level out, with stronger job growth in some coastal communities.”

Statewide, as of February 2023, there were 295,200 more people employed in California compared to February 2020, the pre-pandemic peak. Total nonfarm employment in the state grew 1.7% over this time, compared to a 2.1% increase in the United States as a whole. Annually, California payrolls increased by 2.5% from March 2022 to March 2023, trailing the 2.7% national increase over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in March 2023. While this is near historic lows, the state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the United States overall (3.5%). California continues to struggle with its labor supply, which grew by 32,700 in March, an increase of 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 229,600 workers, a 1.2% decline.

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were mixed as extreme weather impacted several of California’s job sectors. Health Care led the gains in March, with payrolls expanding by 7,400, an increase of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis. Health Care jobs are now up 4.8% on a year-over-year basis.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Government (6,900 or 0.3%), Information (5,400 or 0.9%), Leisure and Hospitality (4,900 or 0.2%), and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (4,300 or 0.5%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in March. Due to the major storms that hit the state, Construction posted the largest declines, with payrolls falling by 8,200 during the month, a 0.9% decline on a month-over-month basis.
  • Other sectors with significant job losses included Administrative Support (-5,000 or -0.4%), Real Estate (-2,400 or -0.8%), Finance and Insurance (-1,300 or -0.2%), and Other Services (-1,200 or -0.2%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 14,800 (0.3%) during the month. San Diego (3,100 or 0.2%), Ventura (1,200 or 0.4%), and El Centro (300 or 0.5%) also saw their payrolls jump. In contrast, Orange County (-2,400 or -0.1%) and the Inland Empire (-2,300 or -0.1%) experienced payrolls drop in March. Over the past year, El Centro (3.6%) enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Diego (3.2%), Orange County (2.8%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.5%), Ventura (1.9%), and the Inland Empire (0.7%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Jose experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 2,200 (0.2%) positions in March. Santa Rosa (300 or 0.1%) and Napa (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls expand. In contrast, the East Bay (-6,400 or -0.5%), San Francisco (MD) (-1,400 or -0.1%), and San Rafael (MD) (-400 or -0.4%) all had payrolls drop in March. Over the past 12 months, Napa (4.5%) has experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Jose (3.5%), San Francisco (MD) (3.2%), Santa Rosa (2.9%), Vallejo (1.3%), the East Bay (1.0%), and San Rafael (MD) (0.4%).
  • In the Central Valley, Bakersfield experienced the largest monthly increase in March as payrolls expanded by 400 (0.1%) positions. Payrolls in Sacramento (200) and Fresno (100) increased as well. In contrast, Yuba (-400 or -0.8%), Merced (-300 or -0.4%), Redding (-200 or -0.3%), Madera (-200 or -0.5%), Visalia (-100 or -0.1%), and Modesto (-100 or -0.1%) all saw declines. Over the past year, Hanford (3.6%) has enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Fresno (3.4%), Visalia (2.8%), Yuba (2.6%), Stockton (2.4%), Redding (2.3%), Madera (2.1%), Modesto (2.1%) and Sacramento (2.0%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Salinas (800 or 0.5%) and Santa Barbara (800 or 0.4%) added the largest number of jobs. San Luis Obispo (500 or 0.4%) and Santa Cruz (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls increase. From March 2022 to March 2023, San Luis Obispo (3.7%) has added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (3.5%), Salinas (3.3%), and Santa Barbara (2.0%).
Continue Reading

Business Journal Newsletter



Advertisement

Trending