Connect with us

Career & Workplace

Ten years after the great recession gave it a knock out punch The Inland Empire has the fastest job growth among Southern Californias powerhouse economies

Published

on

Longer Term Vulnerabilities – Labor Shortages, Trade War Impacts, Surging National Debt – Challenge Future Economic Growth For Nation, State, and Region
October 11, 2018— RIVERSIDE, Calif. (www.ucr.edu) — Although the Inland Empire was hit harder by the Great Recession than most places in the nation, its economy today looks very different, according to an new economic forecast released at the 9th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference. For the second year in a row, the region is home to the fastest job growth in Southern California, and, according to the analysis, when looking at pre-recession job peaks, is the most improved among the major surrounding metros of Los Angeles, San Diego, and Orange Counties.
 
From peak to trough, the Inland Empire lost 150,000 jobs and nonfarm employment fell 11.6%. Since bottoming out, however, the region has gained well over 350,000 jobs and nonfarm employment has increased 31%. 
 
“When an economy falls further during a downturn, it generally experiences a stronger relative recovery, but economic growth in the Inland Empire has been gaining momentum in recent years and is being strongly driven by its sharp affordability advantage, which has led to significant population gains,” said Christopher Thornberg  Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report authors. “And although there are longer term threats to the economy that stem from labor shortages, Federal trade policies, and our hugely expanded national debt, growth is expected to continue through the next year at the local, state, and national level.“
 
The Inland Empire also stands out because it is the most improved Southern California economy, according to the analysis. Compared to its pre-recession peak, the Inland Empire today has 16.1% more jobs; this surpasses Los Angeles (+5.6%), Orange (+6.6%), and San Diego (+11.0%) Counties, as well as the state (+10.6%) and nation (+7.7%). 
 
“The progress the Inland Empire economy has made over the past couple of years is the latest phase in a years-long growth wave that has included broad-based employment gains across most industries, higher income and more local spending, rising home prices, and, as of late, increased construction activity,” said Robert Kleinhenz Executive Director of Research at the Center and one of the report authors. “But growth is going to moderate in the relatively near future as a limited supply of workers will put a check on the region’s expansion.”
According to both Kleinhenz and Thornberg, there is a critical need to address California’s high housing costs and its labor shortages across skill levels in order to ensure healthy economic growth in the Inland Empire and beyond. The new forecast delivers current outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies.
 
Select Key Findings:
  • The jobs forecast in the Inland Empire calls for continued gains, with total nonfarm employment expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.0% in the near term, while the unemployment rate will drop to less than 4% in 2019.
  • The Inland Empire’s renowned Logistics industry is the region’s most improved, having nearly doubled in size over the past decade and with employment 90% above its pre-recession peak. The effects from the current trade tariffs, however, are yet to be seen.
  • The region has also enjoyed gains elsewhere, notably in Construction, Health Care, and Retail Trade, responding to continued growth in the region’s population and business activity.
  • As of the second quarter of 2018, the median nominal price of an existing single-family home in San Bernardino County was 17.2% below its pre-recession peak, while in Riverside County it was 9.7% less. If current trends continue, the forecast has nominal home prices in the region surpassing their pre-recession peak in 2020.
  • Growth in the U.S. economy looks solid for the rest of this year but will slow in 2019. Additionally, while there is no reason to expect a recession anytime soon, the long term stressors of heavy Federal borrowing, rising interest rates, and policy uncertainties, substantially diminish the nation’s capacity to absorb a blow to its economy; it won’t take much to end the current expansion.
  • High housing costs will impede California’s economic growth over the long-term to the extent they deter the state’s labor force from expanding. California’s labor force growth rate has slowed significantly since the fall of 2017, with year-to-year growth at just 0.2% as of July 2018.
The 9th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference is being held on October 11th at the Fox Performing Arts Center in Riverside, CA. In addition to forecasts for the nation, state, and region, the event includes a drilled down outlook for commercial real estate markets in the Inland Empire, illuminating current and future trends in retail, office, and industrial properties.
 
An embargoed copy of the forecast book can be downloaded in its entirety here. To attend the event, please contact Victoria Pike Bond (see above) for a press pass. 
 
The UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first major university forecasting center in Inland Southern California. The Center is dedicated to economic forecasting and policy research focused on the region, state, and nation. Learn more at UCREconomicForecast.org

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Career & Workplace

Navigating California’s New Labor Laws — 2023 HR Confereence

Published

on

2023 Inland Empire Human Resources Conference

The 2023 Inland Empire Human Resources Conference promises to prepare businesses to be proactive against litigation, workplace disputes, risk mitigation, California labor law and regulatory compliance. The event will be held on Tuesday, February 7, from 1:30 to 6:30 p.m. at the Jessie Turner Community Center, 15556 Summit Avenue in Fontana. 

“The conference will be beneficial for all employers, leaders, and HR Professionals who want to stay up to date on labor laws and learn about the best practices for retention and recruitment,” said Vilma Brager, COO of Insight HR Consulting. “Insight HR Consulting is partnering with the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce to provide the tools and resources business need to thrive.”

More than seven major employment law changes took effect just this year — including disclosing salary ranges, paid sick leave, sexual assault claims and more.

Compliance with the constantly changing employment laws in California is essential. The state of California presumes that every employer, regardless of size is aware of new laws and is taking steps to implement changes where necessary,” said Allyson Thompson, Attorney and Partner at the law firm of Kaufman Dolowhich Voluck.

Key topics of discussion will include:

  • 2023 Labor & Employment Law Update
  • Employee Retention & Engagement
  • California’s Pay Transparency Bill

Speakers Include:

  • Vilma Brager, COO, Insight HR Consulting, LLC
  • Edward Ornelas, President & CEO, Inland Empire Chamber of Commerce (IERCC)
  • Allyson K. Thompson, Parnter, Attorney, Kaufman Dolowhich Voluck
  • Alyson Boyd, Major Market Sales Executive, Paycor
  • Brittany Huerta, Employee Benefits Consultant
  • Vanessa Casillas, CEO, Changing Lives Staffing
  • Juan P. Garcia, Principal, Blue Whale Compensation

Tickets are complimentary for members of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce with pre-registration. Early bird registration for non-members is $10, and tickets will be $45 after early bird registration ends. Parking is free. To register, please visit the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce website at hr.iechamber.org.

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, San Bernardino County, Insight HR Consulting, Maniaci Insurance Services, Inc., Paycor, and Strategic Retirement Partners sponsor this event.

Continue Reading

Career & Workplace

California’s Worker Shortage Struggle Continues…And Likely to Continue in 2023

Published

on

Job Growth Modest In Latest Numbers; Unemployment Rate Unchanged

California’s labor market expanded modestly in the latest numbers, with total nonfarm employment in the state growing by just 16,200 positions during December, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. November’s gains were also revised down to 19,900 in the latest numbers, a 6,900 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 26,800.

Overall, California added jobs at a healthy pace in 2021 and 2022. As of December 2022, the state had recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020 at the pandemic’s outset, and there are now 70,000 more people employed in California compared to February 2020. Over this time, total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 0.4% compared to a 0.8% increase nationally. California’s economy increased payrolls by 3.6% from December 2021 to December 2022, outpacing the 3.0% increase nationally over the same period.

“During the year, California’s employers added jobs more quickly than was the case in the national economy, but labor shortages in the state dampened job growth towards the end of the year and will continue to be a drag on job growth in 2023,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the Center for Economic Forecasting.

Indeed, the state’s struggle to add available workers continues. In December, the state’s labor force contracted by 26,800 workers. Since February 2020, California’s labor force has fallen by 313,600 workers, a 1.6% decline. This lack of workers made it difficult for some employers to bring on the additional staff they typically recruit during the holiday season. California’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% in December, unchanged from the previous month. While this figure is near historic lows, the state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.5% rate in the United States overall.

Industry Profile  

  • Employment in nearly half of the job sectors in California now exceed their pre-pandemic levels; sectors that were hit the hardest by the pandemic have yet to recover all the jobs that were lost.
  • Health Care led job gains in December, with payrolls expanding by 8,900. Health Care payrolls are now 4.4% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Construction (7,500), Government (6,000), Leisure and Hospitality (5,300), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (4,500), Other Services (1,300), and Real Estate (1,100).
  • Retail Trade (-9,500) posted the most job losses during the month. Other sectors with significant job losses were Information (-6,100), Wholesale Trade (-2,000), and Administrative Support (-1,900).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. The Inland Empire saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 9,400 (0.6%) during the month. San Diego (8,600 or 0.6%), Orange County (4,300 or 0.3%), Los Angeles (MD) (2,100 or 0.0%), and Ventura (1,200 or 0.4%) also saw payrolls jump during the month. Since April 2020, the Inland Empire (140.8%) has experienced the strongest recovery in the region, followed by El Centro (115.3%), San Diego (105.1%), Orange County (100.0%), Los Angeles (MD) (94.7%), and Ventura (91.5%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) experienced the largest job increase, with payrolls expanding by 6,400 (0.4%) positions in December. The East Bay (3,100 or 0.3%), San Jose (1,800 or 0.2%), Santa Rosa (800 or 0.4%), San Rafael (MD) (600 or 0.6%), Vallejo (500 or 0.4%), and Napa (400 or 0.6%) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Since April 2020, San Jose (105.3%) has experienced the strongest recovery in the region, followed by San Francisco (MD) (96.1%), the East Bay (92.6%), Santa Rosa (88.3%), Napa (79.4%), Vallejo (74.3%), and San Rafael (MD) (55.5%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase, as payrolls expanded by 2,800 (0.3%) positions in December. Payrolls in Fresno (1,400 or 0.4%), Visalia (500 or 0.4%), Chico (300 or 0.4%), Modesto (300 or 0.2%), Merced (200 or 0.3%), and Madera (100 or 0.2%) increased as well. Since April 2020, Stockton (147%) has experienced the strongest recovery in the region, followed by Visalia (135%), Madera (124%), Merced (122%), Sacramento (115.7%), Fresno (114.4%), Redding (113.9%), Hanford (110.3%), and Yuba (110%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, San Luis Obispo added the largest number of jobs, with payrolls increasing by 900 (0.8%) during the month. Santa Cruz (600 or 0.6%), Santa Barbara (600 or 0.3%), and Salinas (400 or 0.3%) experienced payroll declines during the month. Since April 2020, Santa Barbara (103.6%) has enjoyed the strongest recovery in the region, followed by San Luis Obispo (100%), Santa Cruz (91.6%), and Salinas (84.3%).
Continue Reading

Career & Workplace

California Continues Adding Jobs at a Healthy Pace But Hiring Remains Constrained by Lack of Workers

Published

on

Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, Elevated Compared To Nation

California’s labor market expanded steadily in November, with total nonfarm employment in the state growing by 26,800 positions, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. October’s gains were also revised up to 59,800 in the latest numbers, a 3,100 increase from the preliminary estimate of 56,700.

California has added jobs at a healthy pace in 2021 and 2022. As of November 2022, the state had recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 60,700 more people employed in California compared to February 2020. Over this time, total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 0.3% compared to a 0.7% increase nationally. The state increased payrolls by 4.0% from November 2021 to November 2022, outpacing the 3.3% increase nationally during the same period.

California’s unemployment rate grew to 4.1% in the latest numbers, a 0.1 percentage-point increase over the previous month. While this is near historic lows, the unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the nation’s 3.7% rate. California continues to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 21,000 in November. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has contracted by 282,000 workers, a 1.4% decline. This lack of workers is making it difficult for some employers to hire the additional staff they typically bring on during the holiday season.

“While the state’s payrolls are now in expansion mode, many communities continue to struggle to find workers, especially in coastal areas of the state,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics and the Center for Economic Forecasting. “The lack of affordable housing along the coast is the primary constraint holding back job expansion.”

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, the largest job gains continue to occur in the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic. While employment in nearly half of California’s sectors now exceed their pre-pandemic peaks, employment levels in the hardest hit sectors remain below pre-pandemic levels and, as such, should continue to steadily gain jobs over the coming months.
  • Leisure and Hospitality led the gains in November, with payrolls expanding by 13,900. Leisure and Hospitality still has a long way to go to recover all of the jobs lost due to the pandemic, with payrolls still down 5.3% since February 2020.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Health Care (10,500), Information (6,300), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,800), Education (2,900), Other Services (2,800), Government (2,200), Real Estate (2,200), Administrative Support (1,500), and Manufacturing (1,100).
  • Job losses also occurred in November with Retail Trade (-14,700) leading the declines during the month. Other sectors posting significant job losses were Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (-6,500) and Management (-600). With a tight labor market, Retail Trade and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities are finding it difficult to find the additional staff they typically hire during the holiday season.

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, with payrolls growing by 18,000 (0.4%) during the month. San Diego (5,300 or 0.3%), Orange County (900 or 0.1%), and Ventura (200 or 0.1%) also saw their payrolls jump. Since April 2020, the Inland Empire (136.8%) has experienced the strongest recovery in Southern California, followed by El Centro (113.6%), San Diego (102.1%), Orange County (97.7%), Los Angeles (MD) (96.1%), and Ventura (90.4%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 3,000 (0.3%) positions in November. San Jose (2,000 or 0.2%), Santa Rosa (1,900 or 0.9%), the East Bay (1,100 or 0.1%), and Napa (500 or 0.7%) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Since April 2020, San Jose (104.7%) has experienced the strongest recovery in the Bay Area, followed by San Francisco (MD) (92.4%), the East Bay (91.6%), Santa Rosa (87%), Napa (78.3%), Vallejo (72%), and San Rafael (MD) (53.9%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 1,600 (0.2%) positions in November. Payrolls in Bakersfield (1,000 or 0.4%), Merced (800 or 1.1%), Stockton (700 or 0.3%), Chico (400 or 0.5%), Fresno (300 or 0.1%), Hanford (200 or 0.5%), Visalia (200 or 0.1%), and Redding (100 or 0.1%) increased as well. Since April 2020, Stockton (144.3%) has experienced the strongest recovery in the Central Valley, followed by Visalia (130.7%), Merced (122%), Redding (116.5%), Madera (116%), Sacramento (114.9%), Fresno (108.3%), Hanford (106.9%), and Yuba (106%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara added the largest number of jobs, with payrolls increasing by 700 (0.4%) during the month. San Luis Obispo (400 or 0.3%), Salinas (300 or 0.2%), and Santa Cruz (300 or 0.3%) all saw payrolls decline during the month. Since April 2020, Santa Barbara (102.1%) has experienced the strongest recovery along the Central Coast, followed by San Luis Obispo (92.7%), Santa Cruz (88.4%), and Salinas (80.8%).
Continue Reading

Business Journal Newsletter



Trending