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Still A Ways To Go, But California Labor Market Continues Recovery From Covid-19 As Jobs Are Added And Unemployment Falls

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Reimplementation of Restrictions To Prolong Recovery; State Labor Force Contracts

EMPLOYMENT REPORT

Presented by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development

California’s labor market continued to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in July, with total nonfarm employment in the state expanding by 140,400 positions, according to an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.

“The addition of over 140,000 jobs in July is certainly a positive sign,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at the UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Beacon Economics. “But to place this figure in context, if we continue to add jobs at the same rate as in July, it will take until July 2021 to return the state’s labor market to the position it was in in February 2020.”

Year-over-year employment growth in California now stands at -9.4%, one of largest annual declines on record, only trumped by figures from earlier this year. The state has continued to perform slightly worse than the nation, where nonfarm employment declined by 7.5% over the same period. In July, there were over 1.6 million fewer people employed in California than in July 2019.

The state’s unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in July, a 1.6-percentage-point decline relative to June, but a far cry from the 4.0% rate from one year ago. The majority of those who have joined the unemployment rolls, however, still report the nature of their unemployment to be temporary, although a shrinking share of the unemployed report this way. The month-over-month decline in the state’s unemployment rate was aided by a decline in the state’s labor force, which contracted by 167,200 during the month, as some workers gave up looking for work. From a year-over-year perspective, the state’s labor force has declined by 3.0%, nearly 600,000 people, a deeper decline than the 2.1% drop in the nation overall.

Key Findings:

  • After declining in June, Government payrolls rebounded in the latest figures, adding 36,000 positions in July. This was the highest month-to-month gain by any sector in the state. State Government was responsible for the bulk of the gains, with payrolls increasing by a sizeable 31,700 positions in July. Government jobs have been slightly more insulated from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic than their private sector counterparts, although the sector is still down 6.2% over the last year.
  • The relaxation of public health mandates and business adaptation allowed a significant number of Retail sector establishments to re-open their doors in the first half of July, which increased payrolls by 28,800 during the month. Health Care and Other Services have also benefited from the relaxation of public health mandates, with jobs expanding by 23,700 and 17,300, respectively, during the month. However, with the reimplementation of businesses closures in the second half of July, certain businesses in Retail Trade and Other Services will temporarily shutter their doors. Health Care has been largely spared from the latest orders.
  • The Construction sector was the only sector to post declines in July, shedding 14,800 during the month. From a year-over-year perspective, Construction payrolls are down 6.3%, slightly better than the labor market as a whole. Renewed builder confidence and an uptick in business activity should give way to an increase in construction activity in the coming months.
  • In Southern California, Los Angeles (MD) saw the biggest job increases, where payrolls grew by 47,400 during the month. The Inland Empire (7,200), San Diego (4,300), and Ventura (4,200) also added a significant number of jobs during the month. Over the past year, Orange County (-12.0%) saw the steepest job losses in the region, measured by percentage decrease, followed by San Diego (-10.0%), the Inland Empire (-9.5%), Los Angeles (MD) (-9.4%), and Ventura (-9.0%).
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 8,600 positions in July. Santa Rosa (6,200), San Jose (4,400), the East Bay (1,600), and Vallejo (600) also saw payrolls expand during the month. Over the past year, the East Bay (-12.6%) has had the steepest declines in the region, followed by Vallejo (-11.2%), San Rafael (MD) (-11.1%), San Francisco (MD) (-10.7%), and San Jose (-8.2%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 4,800 positions. Payrolls in Fresno (2,500), Merced (2,500), and Yuba (800) increased as well. Over the last year, Yuba (-10.8%) had the steepest declines followed by Stockton (-10.6%), Chico (-10.5), Modesto (-10.4%), Bakersfield (-9.6%), and Sacramento (-9.0%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara added the largest number of jobs, with payrolls increasing by 5,500 during the month. Payrolls in San Luis Obispo (2,800), Salinas (2,700), and Santa Cruz (700) also increased. From a year-over-year perspective, Santa Cruz (-14.7%) shed positions at the fastest rate, followed by San Luis Obispo (-13.3%), Salinas (-12.4%), and Santa Barbara (-8.5%).
source: https://ucreconomicforecast.org/index.php/services-for-business/publications/beacon-employment-report/

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

Career & Workplace

The City of Rancho Cucamonga Recognized as U.S. Best-in-Class Employer by Gallagher 

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Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Benchmarking Analysis Identifies U.S. Organizations That Excel in Optimizing Employee and Organizational Wellbeing 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga participated in Gallagher’s 2023 U.S. Benefits Strategy & Benchmarking Survey and was identified as an organization that excelled in implementing successful strategies for managing people and programs. The City of Rancho Cucamonga was recognized for its comprehensive framework for strategically investing in benefits, compensation and employee communication to support the health, financial security and career growth of its employees at a sustainable cost structure. 

Designations like Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Employer help current and potential employees understand and appreciate an organization’s workplace culture and people strategy; important differentiators as employers compete for talent in today’s labor market. 

“This award is a testament to the collective dedication and unwavering commitment of our team, reflecting the high standards we uphold in fostering a workplace that thrives on innovation, belonging, and employee well-being.” Robert Neiuber, Senior Human Resources Director, City of Rancho Cucamonga. 

A U.S. Best-in-Class Employer, the City of Rancho Cucamonga was assigned points based on its relative performance in: 

  • Plan horizons for benefits and compensation strategies 
  • Extent of the wellbeing strategy 
  • Turnover rate for full-time equivalents (FTEs) 
  • Completion of a workforce engagement survey 
  • Use of an HR technology strategy and its level of sophistication 
  • Difference in healthcare costs over the prior year 
  • Use of a communication strategy 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga understands that high employee expectations haven’t budged in the changing labor market and have regularly examined their formula to attract and retain talent,” said William F. Ziebell, CEO of Gallagher’s Benefits & HR Consulting Division. “In doing so, the City of Rancho Cucamonga utilizes data, workforce feedback tools and clearly defined policies to provide competitive benefits and experiences that their employees value.” 

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Career & Workplace

California Labor Market Closes out 2023 with Modest Growth, but Expect Adjustments when Annual Revision Hits in March

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State’s Workforce Contracts Again; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

California’s labor market grew modestly in the latest numbers, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. Total nonfarm employment in the state expanded by just 23,400 positions in December, however, the sum of California’s metropolitan areas showed a more robust increase of 55,100 positions. November’s gains were revised down to 8,100 in the latest numbers, a 1,200 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 9,300.

“Although job and labor force growth has been muted, we caution against reading too much into these figures because this is the last release before the annual benchmark revisions in March,” said Justin Niakamal, Research Manager at Beacon Economics.

As of December 2023, California had recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 508,100 more people employed in California compared to pre-pandemic February 2020. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.9% since that time compared to a 3.2% increase nationally. California increased payrolls by 1.7% from December 2022 to December 2023, matching the 1.7% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.7% rate in the United States overall. California is continuing to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 3,600 in December. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 243,800 workers, a 1.2% decline. 

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, gains were mixed. Healthcare led payroll gains in December, with payrolls expanding by 9,100, an increase of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains Healthcare payrolls are now 10.8% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Government was the next best performing sector, adding 8,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.3%. However, with these gains Government payrolls are still 0.3%, or 28,400 jobs, below their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Leisure and Hospitality (7,100 or 0.3%), Education (4,100 or 1.0%), Manufacturing (2,600 or 0.2%), Other Services (1,300 or 0.2%), Wholesale Trade (1,200 or 0.2%), Retail Trade (1,100 or 0.1%), and Real Estate (1,100 or 0.4%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in December. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities experienced the largest payroll declines, with payrolls falling by 4,400, a decline of 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. Other sectors posting declines during the month were Administrative Support (-4,100 or -0.4%), Finance and Insurance (-2,200 or -0.4%), Information (-1,900 or -0.3%), Management (-400 or -0.2%), and Mining and Logging (-200 or -1.0%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. The Los Angeles County (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 17,800 (04%) during the month. Orange County (6,800 or 0.4%), the Inland Empire (6,400 or 0.4%), San Diego (5,500 or 0.3%), Ventura (500 or 0.2%), and El Centro (200 or 0.3%) also saw their payrolls jump. Over the past year, Ventura (2.6%) experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (2.1%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.1%), the Inland Empire (1.9%), El Centro (1.9%), and San Diego (1.5%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) (6,500 or 0.5%) had the largest increase during the month. San Jose (3,000 or 0.3%), Napa (400 or 0.5%, Santa Rosa (400 or 0.2%), and San Rafael (MD) (200 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls expand. Over the past 12 months, Santa Rosa (2.9%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Rafael (MD) (2.4%), the East Bay (1.9%), San Francisco (MD) (1.3%), Vallejo (1.3%), San Jose (1.1%), and Napa (0.8%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 2,400 (0.2%) positions in December. Payrolls in Fresno (1,500 or 0.4%), Merced (600 or 0.9%), Modesto (600 or 0.3%), Madera (300 or 0.7%), Redding (200 or 0.3%), and Yuba (200 or 0.4%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, Sacramento (2.8%) enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Yuba (2.7%), Modesto (2.7%), Hanford (2.4%), Fresno (2.2%), Visalia (1.9%), Bakersfield (1.1%), Stockton (0.6%), Madera (0.5%), Chico (0.3%), Merced (-0.3%), and Redding (-1.6%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara (900 or 0.4%) added the largest number of jobs. Santa Cruz (500 or 0.5%) and San Luis Obispo (400 or 0.3%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From December 2022 to December 2023, Salinas (4.61%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Barbara (3.4%), San Luis Obispo (2.7%), and Santa Cruz (2.4%).
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Business

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce Announces the 2024 Human Resources Conference, led by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Rudd & Romo (AALRR)

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Uniting Leaders, Shaping Futures: Charting the Next Course in Human Resources

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting and presented by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo (AALRR), announces the much-anticipated 2024 Human Resources Conference. Scheduled for February 15th, 2024, at the Jessie Turner Center, this event is set to be a landmark gathering for HR and business leaders.

Event Details:

  • Date: February 15th, 2024
  • Venue: Jessie Turner Center, [Full Address]
  • Title: 2024 2nd Annual Inland Empire HR Summit: Shaping the Future of Human Resources

The conference is hosted by The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting. AALRR, a leading full-service law firm, is the presenting sponsor, bringing their extensive legal expertise in employment and labor to the forefront of the event.

“We are thrilled to sponsor and present at the upcoming 2024 Human Resources Conference,” said Amber Solano, AALRR’s Private Labor and Employment Law Practice Group Chair. “With all of the recent changes in the law, we feel this is going to be a valuable event for human resource and business leaders throughout the region.”

The conference offers an invaluable platform for professionals to engage with evolving trends and innovations in HR, preparing them to lead in the changing world of work.

Special Highlights:

  • Renowned HR thought leaders as keynote speakers.
  • Networking opportunities with industry experts and peers.
  • A special focus session by AALRR on the evolving legal landscape in human resources.

“The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce is proud to collaborate with Insight HR consulting and leading speakers AALRR.  This partnership strengthens our commitment to delivering a conference that truly impacts the HR and Business community.” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., CEO.

For the event schedule, registration, and sponsorship details, please visit hr.iechamber.org

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