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Local Land Use Decisions, NIMBYism Are Leading Causes Behind Southern California’s Lack of Housing Production Across Price Levels

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Region is Further Behind Other Locations in Developing Lower-Income Housing; New Study Recommends Zoning Based on Existing Demand 
April 11, 2019— RIVERSIDE, Calif. (www.ucr.edu) — Local land use and zoning laws, as well as opposition to development by residents, are primary obstacles to building badly needed housing across Southern California, according to a new analysis released today by the UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. The report examines Southern California’s progress under the state’s Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA), which mandates how many and what types of housing units each jurisdiction in California needs to allocate and plan for in order to meet local housing needs at all levels of affordability.
Compared to all jurisdictions in the state, Southern California turns in an ‘average’ performance in terms of complying with RHNA’s reporting requirements but that is not indicative of average or more housing production. The analysis examines the Southern California Association of Governments’ jurisdiction under RHNA, which includes Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura Counties. To date, across these areas, less than 30% of the housing units mandated by RHNA for all affordability levels have been permitted for building.
“Because of the sheer size of the region, that statistic helps to illustrate just how chronically behind most jurisdictions in California are in terms of developing new housing,” said Adam Fowler Director of Research at the Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report authors. “We’re now halfway through the current 8-year RHNA cycle and ideally would want to see a number closer to 50%.”
Fowler and his co-author Hoyu Chong a Senior Research Associate at the Center, emphasize that the Southern California region studied in the analysis is especially critical because it is home to more than 70% of the state’s population.
Given the dominant share of residents who live in the region, and California’s acute housing shortage, it’s particularly problematic that the analysis finds the area is further behind in producing low- and moderate-income housing. In fact, the only housing units that have seen significant progress, and are closer to meeting the RHNA mandate, are units that are affordable for those with above-moderate-income levels. Across the six-county Southern California jurisdiction, more than half (52%) of these units have been permitted compared to just 9% of very-low-income, 9% of low-income, and 16% of moderate-income units. Looked at another way, 77% of all the housing units permitted within the region under the current cycle have been for the above-moderate-income level despite the fact that just 42% of the units mandated by RHNA are allocated for that level.
The same general pattern persists in all of the six counties except Imperial, where just 4% of housing units for above-moderate-income households have been permitted versus 30% for moderate-income households. Los Angeles County has the worst imbalance, with 5 out of every 6 housing units permitted falling within the above-moderate-income level, even though just 3 out of every 7 housing units mandated by RHNA are allocated for that level.
According to the analysis, the key reasons behind the lack of housing production across income levels, but especially among lower-income units, include local opposition to development and local zoning and land use laws that are simply not conducive to developing affordable housing. Within the Southern California jurisdiction, for example, the median minimum lot size is bigger than in the rest of California. Moreover, both the minimum and maximum number of single-family homes allowed per acre is lower, and the minimum unit size is considerably bigger.
“There are some really fundamental obstacles facing Southern California and jurisdictions across the state in terms of developing smaller, denser, less expensive housing,” says Fowler. The study’s authors argue that local jurisdictions should take steps that include redefining housing needs, developing zoning regulations based on existing demand, and aligning housing development with projected demographic changes.
The new report follows an analysis released by public policy group Next 10 that examined all the state’s RHNA jurisdictions and found most to be behind in permitting new homes and significant numbers not participating in the reporting process at all.
The complete analysis, California’s Housing Crisis: Goals and Production in Southern California, is available here.
The UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first major university forecasting center in Inland Southern California. The Center is dedicated to economic forecasting and policy research focused on the region, state, and nation. Learn more at UCREconomicForecast.org

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Commercial Real Estate Transactions

Pollo Campero Ground Lease in Lake Elsinore Sets Near Four-Year Low Cap Rate Benchmark

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Hanley Investment Group arranges $2.9M sale as investor demand surges for new-construction triple-net retail assets

Hanley Investment Group Real Estate Advisors, a nationally recognized real estate brokerage and advisory firm specializing in retail property sales, announced today that the firm has arranged the sale of a newly constructed, single-tenant Pollo Campero ground lease in Lake Elsinore, California, for $2,925,000. The closing cap rate represents the lowest Pollo Campero cap rate recorded nationwide in nearly four years.

Hanley Investment Group’s Executive Vice President Bill Asher and Executive Vice President and Partner Jeff Lefko represented the seller and developer, Evergreen Devco, a leader in retail, multifamily and industrial real estate development.

The buyer, a private investor based in San Bernardino County, California, was represented by Greg Bedell and Lance Mordachini of Progressive Real Estate Partners.

“We generated multiple qualified offers and procured an all-cash 1031 exchange buyer through an existing broker relationship,” said Asher. “The property sold prior to the anchor tenant, Stater Bros., commencing construction and opening for business, which underscores the strength of the location and tenant.”

“This transaction was a great example of how strong relationships can create real execution certainty,” said Greg Bedell, senior vice president and managing director at Progressive Real Estate Partners. “Our prior experience working with both Evergreen Devco and Hanley Investment Group gave our client a high level of confidence early in the process, which allowed us to move quickly and decisively. The combination of a high‑quality development, a growing trade area and a long‑term absolute triple‑net ground lease made this a compelling acquisition for our client.”

The newly constructed 3,000‑square‑foot building sits on 1.10 acres and features a 15‑year absolute triple‑net corporate ground lease with 10% rental increases every five years during the primary term and each of the option periods. The lease includes minimal landlord responsibilities.

The property is located at 29160 Central Avenue (Highway 74) in Lake Elsinore at the signalized intersection of Central Avenue and Cambern Avenue. It is a pad to a new Stater Bros.-anchored retail development positioned within the trade area’s dominant regional retail corridor, which sees 13 million combined annual visits (according to Placer.ai). Stater Bros. is expected to open between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Other co-tenants include 7‑Eleven (now open), Dutch Bros Coffee (projected to open in the fourth quarter of 2026) and Super Star Car Wash (scheduled to open in April 2026).

The property benefits from excellent visibility along Highway 74/Central Avenue (28,000 cars per day) and immediate access to Interstate 15 (127,000 cars per day). The surrounding trade area includes Costco, Lowe’s, Target, Walmart Supercenter, The Home Depot, Aldi, LA Fitness, PetSmart and other national retailers.

“This corridor continues to attract best-in-class retailers due to strong population growth, high traffic counts and outstanding regional draw at the intersection,” said Asher. “The expansion of this new Stater Bros. location is a testament to the chain’s tremendous historical success in other areas within the city of Lake Elsinore, one of the fastest-growing areas in California.”

Hanley Investment Group is currently marketing the Super Star Car Wash outparcel for sale, offering investors an opportunity to acquire another new‑construction, long‑term, absolute triple-net ground lease with minimal landlord responsibilities within the same development.

“Investor demand for new‑construction, absolute triple-net ground leases with long‑term corporate guarantees remains exceptionally strong,” Asher added. “This sale reflects the continued appetite for high‑quality, service‑oriented retail in growing Southern California markets.”

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Commercial Real Estate Transactions

Dedeaux Properties Signs Leading Electric Car Manufacturer to Long-Term Lease at 49,000-Square-Foot Facility in Perris, CA. 

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Rivian to utilize Perris facility for EV sales, service, and charging operations as demand for industrial space rebounds in the Inland Empire

Dedeaux Properties has signed Rivian, a leading electric car manufacturer to a long-term lease for an entire 49,470-square-foot light-manufacturing facility in Perris, CA. The space will be used by the company for sales, maintenance, service, charging, and repair of their line of electric vehicles. 

The 4.6-acre property is part of a logistics campus developed by Dedeaux consisting of two identical state-of-the-art buildings each with 30-foot clear heights, ESFR sprinklers, 1,200 amps, 16 dock high loading doors, and a large yard that features 34 auto stalls and 55 trailer stalls.  The other building is fully occupied by Ryder Logistics. This low coverage industrial site collectively offers over 300,000 square feet of functional IOS for trailer parking and outdoor storage.
 
Its location at 18631 Seaton Ave provides immediate access/egress to Interstate 215, one of Southern California’s major north/south thoroughfares, allowing tenants to serve throughout the region.

Demand in the East Inland Empire has surged in the last quarter after experiencing multiple years of record low activity. According to Colliers who represented Dedeaux in transaction, Q4 2025 gross activity in the Eastern Inland Empire surpassed 6M square feet for the first time since Q3 2022. 

“With demand returning and a high amount of product available in the market, tenants are going to seek out the best properties to meet their needs,” said Ben Horning, Director of Development at Dedeaux Properties. “Our approach was to deliver a thoughtfully designed, best-in-class asset – one we believed would resonate with a tenant like Rivian. 

Members of the Colliers team included Mark Zorn, Cory Whitman, and Nico Coppola. 

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Commercial Real Estate Transactions

Hanley Investment Group Arranges Sales of Two New Starbucks Properties in Pomona and San Bernardino, Calif., Totaling $8.14 Million

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New 15‑year corporate leases, and high‑traffic locations drive two separate Starbucks transactions in Southern California

Hanley Investment Group Real Estate Advisors, a national real estate brokerage and advisory firm specializing in retail property sales, announced today the sale of two new single‑tenant Starbucks properties in Pomona and San Bernardino, California. The combined sales price was $8,139,000.

Hanley Investment Group’s Executive Vice President Bill Asher and Executive Vice President and Partner Jeff Lefko represented both sellers.

Starbucks — Pomona, California

The newly renovated, single‑tenant Starbucks café and drive‑thru located at 2302 North Garey Avenue in Pomona sold for $4,575,000. The buyer, a private investor based in Los Angeles completing a 1031 exchange, was represented by Brad Freeman of Freeman & Associates. Asher and Lefko represented the seller, LA Icon LLC of Los Angeles.

“We procured a repeat Southern California‑based 1031 exchange buyer through a broker relationship, both of whom we have successfully transacted with on multiple occasions,” Asher said. “We secured the buyer within days of closing their downleg, allowing them to confidently identify an upleg and close escrow early in their 1031 exchange period.”

The 1,650‑square‑foot building, originally constructed in 1977, was converted from an independent fast‑food restaurant and fully renovated in 2024 to Starbucks’ newest prototype. The property sits on a 0.38‑acre parcel at the hard‑corner, signalized intersection of Arrow Highway and Garey Avenue, which sees more than 38,000 cars per day.

The location benefits from dense, infill Los Angeles County demographics and proximity to major regional demand drivers, including The Claremont Colleges, the University of La Verne, the LA County Fairplex and Pomona Valley Hospital Medical Center. The property is also 200 feet from the Pomona Gold Line Metro Station and near new multifamily development.

The newly renovated Starbucks features a corporate 15-year triple-net lease with 10% rental increasesevery five years during the primary term and each of the three five-year options.

“This is a rare 15-year primary lease term with no early termination right, signaling strong long-term commitment to the site,” Asher said. “The buyer also benefitted from a lease structure that Starbucks was responsible for maintaining the property including the roof, a unique characteristic for a fee-simple Starbucks investment in California in today’s market.”

Starbucks — San Bernardino, California

The new‑construction, single‑tenant Starbucks drive‑thru‑only prototype located at 291 East Hospitality Lane in San Bernardino sold for $3,564,000. The buyer, a local investor from Orange County, California, was represented by David Kluver, senior vice president and principal with Lee & Associates in Newport Beach, California. Asher and Lefko represented the seller, a local developer.

“We procured a repeat Starbucks investor based in Southern California through a broker relationship and closed escrow on a rare Starbucks drive‑thru‑only prototype in the Inland Empire,” Asher said. “The combination of a new 15‑year lease, a prime freeway‑adjacent location and strong co‑tenancy resulted in premium pricing for this asset.”

Completed in 2025, the 1,200‑square‑foot building sits on a 0.58‑acre parcel and features a double drive‑thru designed to maximize operational efficiency and throughput, ideal for this very accessible and visible freeway location. The property is secured by a 15‑year corporate triple‑net lease, with no early cancellation clause and 10% rental increases every five years during the primary term and each of the four five‑year options.

The site benefits from a strategic, freeway‑adjacent location just off the Interstate 10 Freeway (210,600 cars per day) and the signalized intersection of Hospitality Lane and Waterman Avenue (55,000 cars per day). It is co‑tenanted with a new Quick Quack Car Wash, which Hanley Investment Group recently sold, and is positioned adjacent to the Tri‑City Corporate Centre, a 153‑acre, 1.69‑million‑square‑foot master‑planned office, retail and hospitality district.

The surrounding area includes several major hotels, providing consistent daily traffic and strong synergy for the tenant. The Inland Empire continues to experience significant population and economic growth, with more than 257,000 residents within five miles and a daytime population of 142,440 within three miles.

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), rated BBB+ by S&P, has been named one of Fortune’s “World’s Most Admired Companies” from 2009 to 2025 and operates more than 40,000 stores in 84 countries.

“Demand for single‑tenant, service‑oriented assets leased to nationally recognized operators like Starbucks remains exceptionally strong,” Asher said. “The combination of corporate credit, long‑term lease security and high‑traffic Inland Empire and Los Angeles County locations continues to resonate with private and 1031 exchange buyers.”

To date, Hanley Investment Group has arranged the sale of more than $760 million in Starbucks‑leased investments nationwide, including 75 Starbucks‑occupied properties in California.

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