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Job Growth to Slow in all of California’s Major Metro Areas in 2019

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JOB GROWTH TO SLOW IN ALL OF CALIFORNIA’S MAJOR METRO AREAS IN 2019

Commercial Real Estate Activity, Rents Surging in Some Areas

 

October 18, 2018—LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA—Across California’s major metros areas, job growth is forecast to continue in 2019, but at a slower, and in some cases comparatively meager pace, according to new regional outlooks released today by Beacon Economics  Driven by a steadily tightening labor market and little growth in the workforce, the new forecasts for five of the state’s largest urban economies find that fired-up locations such as San Francisco and the South Bay/Silicon Valley will see job growth start to fall below thresholds they may have become accustomed to.

“Economic growth is going to continue in California, but 2019 is looking like the year when the jobs slowdown we’ve anticipated for some time begins to materialize,” said Robert Kleinhenz  Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics. “It is highly unlikely that industries in the state’s biggest urban centers – from tech to professional business services to construction – will be able to hire at a the same pace we have seen in the past few years.”

According to the new outlooks, the unemployment rate in all of California’s major metros has also dropped – and from levels that are already historically low. This represents another indicator of the state’s tight labor market, says Kleinhenz, and that relieving that pressure will require addressing California’s high cost of housing and ensuring that the workforce can continue to gain from both domestic and international migration.

Key Findings By Region:

Los Angeles

  • Nonfarm employment in Los Angeles County experienced the slowest growth among California’s major metros between August 2017 and August 2018 due to a tight labor market and only marginal increases in the workforce. Employment in the region is forecast to grow between 1% and 1.4% through the end of this year and into 2019.
  • Commercial real estate markets in Los Angeles are performing well with the value of building permits issued doubling from the 2nd quarter of 2017 to the 2nd quarter of 2018.

East Bay

  • Between August 2017 and August 2018, total nonfarm employment in the East Bay rose by 1.8%, lagging neighboring San Francisco (+2.1%) and the South Bay (+3.8%) but still expanding thanks to increases in logistics, goods producing, and technical industries. The region’s employment growth is forecast to slow in 2019 due to tight labor conditions.
  • The cost of rent for office, retail, and warehouse properties in the East Bay all increased from the 2nd quarter of 2017 to the 2nd quarter of 2018 although commercial rents in the region remain lower than they are in San Francisco and the South Bay.

San Diego

  • San Diego’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.2% in August 2018, the lowest level it has been since 2000. Between August 2017 and August 2018, total nonfarm employment in the region expanded by 1.6%, driven largely by an expansion in the Professional and Business Services sector. This rate of growth is forecast to slow in 2019.
  • Office properties in San Diego should be interesting to watch over the next couple of years as more than one million square feet of development will be completed – something that is likely to impact vacancy rates and rental costs.

San Francisco

  • The San Francisco economy continues to shine with the lowest unemployment rate in the state (2.2% as of August 2018) – something that is unlikely to change in 2019. Job growth in the region is forecast to finish the year at about 2% but will dip below that pace next year as the local labor market continues to tighten.
  • San Francisco is atop national rankings in its commercial real estate markets with office properties leading the way. The vacancy rate at office properties in San Francisco (9.8%) is among the lowest in the United States and the annual cost of rent for this property type increased to $61.08 per square foot from the 2nd quarter of 2017 to the 2nd quarter of 2018.

South Bay/San Jose

  • The South Bay is leading the greater Bay Area in terms of job growth, adding 42,000 positions between August 2017 and August 2018 for a 3.8% rate of expansion. For all of 2018, nonfarm job growth is expected to come in at just over 3.5% but will drop below that threshold in 2019.
  • There is no cool down in sight for the South Bay’s commercial real estate markets. The average cost of rent for office space in the region is among the fastest growing in California on a year-over-year basis (4.5% compared to 4.2% in San Francisco). Rents have increased for both retail and warehouse properties in the region as well.

For complete findings, please view the full reports for the East BayLos AngelesSan DiegoSan Francisco, and the South Bay/Silicon Valley attached to this email.

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Beacon Economics LLC is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Career & Workplace

California Continues to Struggle with Labor Supply as Employment Expands Modestly

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State’s Unemployment Rate Remains Highest In Nation

California’s labor market expanded modestly in April, with total nonfarm employment in the state growing by 5,200 positions over the month, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. March’s gains were revised down to 18,200 in the latest numbers, a 10,100 decline from the preliminary estimate of 28,300.

As of April 2024, California has recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 314,300 more people employed in the state compared to February 2020. Total nonfarm employment has grown 1.8% over this time compared to a 3.9% increase in the United States overall. California increased payrolls by 1.2% from April 2023 to April 2024, trailing the 1.8% increase nationally over the same period.

The state’s unemployment rate held steady at 5.3% in April 2024, unchanged from the previous month. California’s unemployment rate is the highest in the nation and remains elevated relative to the 3.9% rate in the United States as a whole. The state continues to struggle with its labor supply, which remained essentially unchanged in April (declining by a negligible 100). Since February 2020, California’s labor force has fallen by -246,200 workers, a -1.3% decline. In comparison, over the past twelve months the nation’s labor force has increased by 0.8%. 

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, job gains were mixed in April. Health Care led the way with payrolls expanding by 10,100, an increase of 0.4% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains Health Care payrolls are now 13.6% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (3,700 or 0.4%), Leisure and Hospitality (3,100 or 0.2%), Government (2,600 or 0.1%), Education (1,800 or 0.4%), Retail Trade (1,000 or 0.1%), and Wholesale Trade (400 or 0.1%).
  • Payrolls decreased a handful of sectors in April. Construction experienced the largest declines, with payrolls falling by -6,000, a contraction of -0.6% on a month-over-month basis. Note that this decline was largely due to late season storms affecting construction projects across the state.
  • Other sectors posting significant declines during the month were Manufacturing (-5,300 or -0.4%), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (-3,600 or -0.3%), Real Estate (-700 or -0.2%), Finance and Insurance (-700 or -0.1%), Administrative Support (-600 or -0.1%), and Information (-600 or -0.1%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 5,700 (0.2%) during the month. The Inland Empire (2,600 or 0.2%) and San Diego (1,200 or 0.1%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. However, payrolls fell in Orange County (-2,700 or -0.2%), Ventura (-500 or -0.2%), and El Centro (-2,200 or -0.3%). Over the past year, El Centro (1.9%) has had the fastest job growth in the region, followed by the Inland Empire (1.5%), Ventura (1.4%), Orange County (1.1%), San Diego (0.8%), and Los Angeles (MD) (0.6%).
  • In the Bay Area, the East Bay experienced the largest increase, with payrolls expanding by 2,600 (0.2%) positions in April. San Rafael (MD) (200 or 0.2%) and Napa (100 or 0.1%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. However, San Francisco (MD) (-1,700 or -0.1%), Santa Rosa (-600 or -0.3%), and Vallejo (-600 or -0.2%) experienced payroll declines during the month. Over the past 12 months, Vallejo (3.0%) enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Santa Rosa (2.3%), Napa (2.2%), San Rafael (MD) (1.6%), the East Bay (0.9%), San Jose (0.2%), and San Francisco (MD) (-0.8%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 900 (0.1%) positions in April. Payrolls in Yuba (400 or 0.8%), Bakersfield (300 or 0.1%), Fresno (300 or 0.1%), and Visalia (100 or 0.1%) increased as well. However, payrolls fell in Stockton (-500 or -0.2%), Modesto (-200 or -0.1%), Merced (-200 or -0.3%), Redding (-100 or -0.1%), and Hanford (-100 or -0.2%). Over the past year, Madera (5.7%) had the fastest growth, followed by Yuba (4.2%), Merced (3.7%), Modesto (3.6%), Sacramento (2.5%), Hanford (2.4%), Redding (2.3%), Fresno (2.2%), Visalia (2.1%), Stockton (2.0%), Chico (1.5%), and Bakersfield (1.1%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Salinas (200 or 0.1%) and Santa Cruz (200 or 0.2%) added the largest number of jobs during the month. Santa Barbara (-100 or -0.1%) saw payrolls decline. From April 2023 to April 2024, Salinas (1.9%) has added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Cruz (1.6%), Santa Barbara (0.8%), and San Luis Obispo (0.5%).
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Career & Workplace

Inland Economic Growth & Opportunity (IEGO) Announces 2024 Priorities

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Strategic Vision: Prioritizing Sustainable Growth and Enhanced Opportunities in the Inland Region

The Inland Economic Growth & Opportunity (IEGO), a collaborative organization dedicated to fostering economic growth, has announced its 2024 strategic priorities designed to create a vibrant, inclusive, and sustainable economy for Southern California’s Inland Empire. Among its immediate priorities include its role in Governor Newsom’s California Jobs First regional jobs strategy.

“As one of the California Jobs First statewide collaboratives, IEGO is committed to engaging a wide ranging and diverse group of stakeholders in our economic development focus so that we can improve the quality of life for all residents across the region,” said IEGO Executive Director Matthew Mena.

IEGO’s strategy is critical. While Inland Southern California remains one of California’s top job growth markets, it also ranks as having the lowest average weekly wages according to employment data for the nation’s 50 largest county job markets as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The IEGO 2024 priorities are designed to counter that trend and encourage greater business investment, including:

California Jobs First: IEGO will develop Inland Southern California’s regional jobs strategy to create quality jobs and a more accessible economy as part of Governor Newsom’s very intentional, inclusive approach to economic and workforce development to maximize state resources and investments by empowering communities to chart their own futures. Much of the funding will support career development projects from capacity building to industry-specific programs, and new job training.

Center of Excellence: As one of the state’s designated Center of Excellence, IEGO will support the region’s community colleges and their partners by providing research on the local labor market, including information on job growth, wages, demographics, top employers, education, and skill requirements, as well as education outcomes for industries and occupations critical to the Inland Empire’s economy. This data will help inform the development of new community college programs, curriculum, and partnerships that the colleges pursue in their efforts to prepare residents for high-paying, fast-growing jobs that Inland Empire businesses need today and in the future. 

Regional Marketing: IEGO will work to ensure that the region is well positioned to benefit from public and private investment and is fully recognized for its economic strength and opportunity. In this way, IEGO can enhance the delivery of public and private resources to the two-county region.

“There’s real opportunity for the IEGO Center of Excellence to lead deeper economic and workforce research. One of the immediate areas is our Top 50 Jobs report. We want to better identify the best job opportunities and pathways for workers in struggling families to make ends meet and build wealth,” said Andy Hall, who is leading report development for the Center of Excellence.

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Career & Workplace

The City of Rancho Cucamonga Recognized as U.S. Best-in-Class Employer by Gallagher 

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Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Benchmarking Analysis Identifies U.S. Organizations That Excel in Optimizing Employee and Organizational Wellbeing 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga participated in Gallagher’s 2023 U.S. Benefits Strategy & Benchmarking Survey and was identified as an organization that excelled in implementing successful strategies for managing people and programs. The City of Rancho Cucamonga was recognized for its comprehensive framework for strategically investing in benefits, compensation and employee communication to support the health, financial security and career growth of its employees at a sustainable cost structure. 

Designations like Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Employer help current and potential employees understand and appreciate an organization’s workplace culture and people strategy; important differentiators as employers compete for talent in today’s labor market. 

“This award is a testament to the collective dedication and unwavering commitment of our team, reflecting the high standards we uphold in fostering a workplace that thrives on innovation, belonging, and employee well-being.” Robert Neiuber, Senior Human Resources Director, City of Rancho Cucamonga. 

A U.S. Best-in-Class Employer, the City of Rancho Cucamonga was assigned points based on its relative performance in: 

  • Plan horizons for benefits and compensation strategies 
  • Extent of the wellbeing strategy 
  • Turnover rate for full-time equivalents (FTEs) 
  • Completion of a workforce engagement survey 
  • Use of an HR technology strategy and its level of sophistication 
  • Difference in healthcare costs over the prior year 
  • Use of a communication strategy 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga understands that high employee expectations haven’t budged in the changing labor market and have regularly examined their formula to attract and retain talent,” said William F. Ziebell, CEO of Gallagher’s Benefits & HR Consulting Division. “In doing so, the City of Rancho Cucamonga utilizes data, workforce feedback tools and clearly defined policies to provide competitive benefits and experiences that their employees value.” 

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