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California Job Growth Continues in Latest Numbers But Slowdown is Evident

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Labor Force Declines For 2nd Consecutive Month

June 21, 2019—LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA—Nonfarm employment in California continued to grow at a modest pace, increasing by 19,400 jobs in the latest numbers from the California Employment Development Department, according an analysis released jointly by Beacon Economics and the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development. If looking just at the sum of the state’s metropolitan areas, however, nonfarm payrolls grew at a more robust pace, expanding by 37,900 jobs.

From a year-over-year perspective, California added 282,700 jobs as of May 2019 (most recent numbers). This is equivalent to a 1.6% year-over-year increase, which matches the 1.6% growth rate in the nation as a whole. “This rate of growth represents a substantial slowing from the pace the state experienced a few years ago,” said Christopher Thornberg Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting. “The problem isn’t labor demand, the economy is still very strong. The slowing is being driven by labor supply shortages that stem from California’s housing supply crisis.”

The state’s unemployment rate has remained largely unchanged over the last year and dipped to 4.2% in May. California’s labor force declined by 49,800 in the latest numbers, and combined with the 51,800 decline in April, has erased much of the labor force gain from earlier in the year. Despite the loss, on a year-over-year basis, the California’s labor force still grew a very slow 0.7%, equivalent to an increase of 136,400, less than half the pace of job growth in the state.

Key Findings:

  • Health Care led the way in terms of April’s job gains, increasing payrolls by 15,100 or nearly one-third of the monthly gains for the entire state. The strong month of payroll gains pushed year-over-year growth in this sector to 2.9%, well above the 1.6% average in the state overall. Leisure and Hospitality also had a strong month, increasing payrolls by 12,100. Year-over-year gains for Leisure and Hospitality now stand at a healthy 2.1%.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains for the month were Administrative Support (+3,600), Government (+3,500), Wholesale Trade (+2,400), and Construction (+2,400). In percentage terms, Information led all industries with a 3.5% yearly gain, followed by Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services at 3.2% and Health Care at 2.9%.
  • Despite the broad-based growth in the state last month a handful of sectors saw payrolls decline in April. Retail Trade experienced the steepest decline, decreasing payrolls by 2,100. With this drop year-over-year gains for this sector remain negative, with payrolls declining by 0.5% relative to the same month last year. Finance and Insurance (-700) and Information (-600) were the only other major sectors that saw a decrease in payrolls in April.
  • Regionally, growth was surprisingly concentrated in Southern California. The Los Angeles (MD) led the way, boosting payrolls by 18,300. That was followed by growth in the Inland Empire (+6,700), San Diego (+5,000), and Orange County (+4,700). From a year-over-year perspective, the Inland Empire (+1.5%) saw the fastest growth. This was followed by growth in San Diego (+1.4%) and the Los Angeles (MD) (+1.1%), with both Orange County and Ventura County at 1.0%.
  • In the San Francisco Bay Area, the East Bay led the pack increasing payrolls by 3,800. This was followed by San Jose (+3,400), San Francisco (MD) (+2,000), and Santa Rosa (+1,600). From a year-over-year perspective, San Francisco (MD) (+3.6%) was the fastest growing, followed by San Rafael (MD) (+2.7%), San Jose (+2.6%), and the East Bay (1.8%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento led the way, increasing payrolls by 3,000. Job gains in Sacramento were followed by Fresno (+1,100), Bakersfield (+600), and Hanford (+300). From a year-over-year perspective, Fresno (+3.8%) was the fastest growing, followed by Sacramento (+2.8%), Bakersfield (+2.2%), and Madera (+2.1%).
  • On the Central Coast, Salinas topped the list, boosting payrolls by 800. Payrolls also grew in Santa Cruz (+400) and San Luis Obispo (+300) last month, but fell by 100 positions in Santa Barbara. From a year-over-year perspective, Salinas (+3.2%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Barbara (+2.2%), Santa Cruz (+1.9%), and San Luis Obispo (+1.4%).

 

Beacon Economics is an independent economic research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. The UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development is the first world class university forecasting center in the Inland Empire. This analysis was authored by Christopher ThornbergRobert Kleinhenz, and Brian Vanderplas. Learn more at www.beaconecon.com and www.ucreconomicforecast.org.

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Career & Workplace

The City of Rancho Cucamonga Recognized as U.S. Best-in-Class Employer by Gallagher 

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Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Benchmarking Analysis Identifies U.S. Organizations That Excel in Optimizing Employee and Organizational Wellbeing 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga participated in Gallagher’s 2023 U.S. Benefits Strategy & Benchmarking Survey and was identified as an organization that excelled in implementing successful strategies for managing people and programs. The City of Rancho Cucamonga was recognized for its comprehensive framework for strategically investing in benefits, compensation and employee communication to support the health, financial security and career growth of its employees at a sustainable cost structure. 

Designations like Gallagher’s Best-in-Class Employer help current and potential employees understand and appreciate an organization’s workplace culture and people strategy; important differentiators as employers compete for talent in today’s labor market. 

“This award is a testament to the collective dedication and unwavering commitment of our team, reflecting the high standards we uphold in fostering a workplace that thrives on innovation, belonging, and employee well-being.” Robert Neiuber, Senior Human Resources Director, City of Rancho Cucamonga. 

A U.S. Best-in-Class Employer, the City of Rancho Cucamonga was assigned points based on its relative performance in: 

  • Plan horizons for benefits and compensation strategies 
  • Extent of the wellbeing strategy 
  • Turnover rate for full-time equivalents (FTEs) 
  • Completion of a workforce engagement survey 
  • Use of an HR technology strategy and its level of sophistication 
  • Difference in healthcare costs over the prior year 
  • Use of a communication strategy 

The City of Rancho Cucamonga understands that high employee expectations haven’t budged in the changing labor market and have regularly examined their formula to attract and retain talent,” said William F. Ziebell, CEO of Gallagher’s Benefits & HR Consulting Division. “In doing so, the City of Rancho Cucamonga utilizes data, workforce feedback tools and clearly defined policies to provide competitive benefits and experiences that their employees value.” 

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Career & Workplace

California Labor Market Closes out 2023 with Modest Growth, but Expect Adjustments when Annual Revision Hits in March

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State’s Workforce Contracts Again; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

California’s labor market grew modestly in the latest numbers, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. Total nonfarm employment in the state expanded by just 23,400 positions in December, however, the sum of California’s metropolitan areas showed a more robust increase of 55,100 positions. November’s gains were revised down to 8,100 in the latest numbers, a 1,200 decrease from the preliminary estimate of 9,300.

“Although job and labor force growth has been muted, we caution against reading too much into these figures because this is the last release before the annual benchmark revisions in March,” said Justin Niakamal, Research Manager at Beacon Economics.

As of December 2023, California had recovered all of the jobs that were lost in March and April 2020, and there are now 508,100 more people employed in California compared to pre-pandemic February 2020. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.9% since that time compared to a 3.2% increase nationally. California increased payrolls by 1.7% from December 2022 to December 2023, matching the 1.7% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in December 2023, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.7% rate in the United States overall. California is continuing to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 3,600 in December. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 243,800 workers, a 1.2% decline. 

Industry Profile  

  • At the industry level, gains were mixed. Healthcare led payroll gains in December, with payrolls expanding by 9,100, an increase of 0.3% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains Healthcare payrolls are now 10.8% above their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Government was the next best performing sector, adding 8,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.3%. However, with these gains Government payrolls are still 0.3%, or 28,400 jobs, below their pre-pandemic peak.
  • Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Leisure and Hospitality (7,100 or 0.3%), Education (4,100 or 1.0%), Manufacturing (2,600 or 0.2%), Other Services (1,300 or 0.2%), Wholesale Trade (1,200 or 0.2%), Retail Trade (1,100 or 0.1%), and Real Estate (1,100 or 0.4%).
  • Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in December. Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities experienced the largest payroll declines, with payrolls falling by 4,400, a decline of 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. Other sectors posting declines during the month were Administrative Support (-4,100 or -0.4%), Finance and Insurance (-2,200 or -0.4%), Information (-1,900 or -0.3%), Management (-400 or -0.2%), and Mining and Logging (-200 or -1.0%).

Regional Profile

  • Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. The Los Angeles County (MD) saw the largest increase, where payrolls grew by 17,800 (04%) during the month. Orange County (6,800 or 0.4%), the Inland Empire (6,400 or 0.4%), San Diego (5,500 or 0.3%), Ventura (500 or 0.2%), and El Centro (200 or 0.3%) also saw their payrolls jump. Over the past year, Ventura (2.6%) experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (2.1%), Los Angeles (MD) (2.1%), the Inland Empire (1.9%), El Centro (1.9%), and San Diego (1.5%).
  • In the Bay Area, San Francisco (MD) (6,500 or 0.5%) had the largest increase during the month. San Jose (3,000 or 0.3%), Napa (400 or 0.5%, Santa Rosa (400 or 0.2%), and San Rafael (MD) (200 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls expand. Over the past 12 months, Santa Rosa (2.9%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by San Rafael (MD) (2.4%), the East Bay (1.9%), San Francisco (MD) (1.3%), Vallejo (1.3%), San Jose (1.1%), and Napa (0.8%).
  • In the Central Valley, Sacramento experienced the largest monthly increase as payrolls expanded by 2,400 (0.2%) positions in December. Payrolls in Fresno (1,500 or 0.4%), Merced (600 or 0.9%), Modesto (600 or 0.3%), Madera (300 or 0.7%), Redding (200 or 0.3%), and Yuba (200 or 0.4%) also saw their payrolls jump during the month. Over the past year, Sacramento (2.8%) enjoyed the fastest growth, followed by Yuba (2.7%), Modesto (2.7%), Hanford (2.4%), Fresno (2.2%), Visalia (1.9%), Bakersfield (1.1%), Stockton (0.6%), Madera (0.5%), Chico (0.3%), Merced (-0.3%), and Redding (-1.6%).
  • On California’s Central Coast, Santa Barbara (900 or 0.4%) added the largest number of jobs. Santa Cruz (500 or 0.5%) and San Luis Obispo (400 or 0.3%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From December 2022 to December 2023, Salinas (4.61%) added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by Santa Barbara (3.4%), San Luis Obispo (2.7%), and Santa Cruz (2.4%).
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Business

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce Announces the 2024 Human Resources Conference, led by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Rudd & Romo (AALRR)

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Uniting Leaders, Shaping Futures: Charting the Next Course in Human Resources

The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting and presented by Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo (AALRR), announces the much-anticipated 2024 Human Resources Conference. Scheduled for February 15th, 2024, at the Jessie Turner Center, this event is set to be a landmark gathering for HR and business leaders.

Event Details:

  • Date: February 15th, 2024
  • Venue: Jessie Turner Center, [Full Address]
  • Title: 2024 2nd Annual Inland Empire HR Summit: Shaping the Future of Human Resources

The conference is hosted by The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Insight HR Consulting. AALRR, a leading full-service law firm, is the presenting sponsor, bringing their extensive legal expertise in employment and labor to the forefront of the event.

“We are thrilled to sponsor and present at the upcoming 2024 Human Resources Conference,” said Amber Solano, AALRR’s Private Labor and Employment Law Practice Group Chair. “With all of the recent changes in the law, we feel this is going to be a valuable event for human resource and business leaders throughout the region.”

The conference offers an invaluable platform for professionals to engage with evolving trends and innovations in HR, preparing them to lead in the changing world of work.

Special Highlights:

  • Renowned HR thought leaders as keynote speakers.
  • Networking opportunities with industry experts and peers.
  • A special focus session by AALRR on the evolving legal landscape in human resources.

“The Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce is proud to collaborate with Insight HR consulting and leading speakers AALRR.  This partnership strengthens our commitment to delivering a conference that truly impacts the HR and Business community.” said Edward Ornelas, Jr., CEO.

For the event schedule, registration, and sponsorship details, please visit hr.iechamber.org

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