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A Recession That Is Technically Over And A Full Recovery That Is Dependent On Containing COVID-19; New Economic Forecast Is Both Upbeat And Cautionary

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6 years ago

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California Labor Market Recovering But Rate Of Job Growth Has Slowed; Hardest Hit Sectors In The Inland Empire Expected To Face Surging Demand Once Virus is Controlled

October 13th, 2020 — The United States economy can and is bouncing back rapidly from the severe and unprecedented pandemic-driven downturn that began early this year, according to a new economic forecast released today at the 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference. Despite the alarming and record-breaking decline in economic output that occurred in the 2nd quarter, and the ongoing painful effects of the COVID-19 epidemic itself, the economy remains fundamentally strong, and in many ways is already rebounding.

“The United States hit its low point in the current downturn back in April, and since that time the nation’s economy has been moving back towards more normal levels of economic output,” said Christopher Thornberg, Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report authors. “As odd as it may sound, technically, this recession is over, making it the deepest, but shortest in U.S. history.”

Thornberg emphasizes that this does not mean harsh recessionary effects are not still being felt, especially among some industries and individuals, but that everything from the unemployment rate to the rate of job recovery to consumer spending indicate that the economy is growing. Moreover, as spending has been curtailed for the past seven months, the ‘fuel’ that has built up in the form of increased wealth and savings is waiting to set off a vigorous expansion once the virus is controlled.

Despite the ostensible contradiction of a deep, short recession, the new forecast argues that as dramatically bad as the 2nd quarter numbers were, the pandemic-driven shocks to the economy were largely transitory and not based on any fundamental financial or economic imbalance. Today, the share of the U.S. labor force that is truly unemployed (meaning workers who have permanently lost their jobs or are actively looking for new work) stands at just under 5%, significantly lower than the 8% plus rate seen at the peak of the Great Recession. Workers who consider themselves temporarily laid off make up about 3% of the current U.S. unemployed workforce.

The new forecast includes outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. Across geographies, the forecasts are relatively rosy but come with a key caveat: Full recovery and resumption of economic activity/output is firmly dependent on containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Select Key Findings:

  • The underlying strength of the U.S. economy at the start of the pandemic has been excessively (yes, excessively) reinforced by the Federal government’s $3 trillion stimulus plan. Lost economic activity in the first half of 2020 stands at approximately $600 billion, 20% of the size of the stimulus package.
  • Total personal income in the United State has actually increased during the course of the pandemic as spending has fallen. That has caused consumer savings to shoot up to almost $1.2 trillion, four times what it was in the 4th quarter of 2019.
  • The California labor market continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic although the rate of job growth has slowed in the months since June’s strong bounce when 558,200 positions were added back into the economy. The slowing rate is due in large part to the reimplementation of business closures and restraints as a result of the virus resurging.
  • As health-mandated restrictions in the state continue, cities in California that rely heavily on tourism/visitors and the transient occupancy tax, will experience real hardship due to revenue losses.
  • As of this writing, the cities in California with the largest job losses are Santa Cruz (-14.7%), San Luis Obispo (-13.3%), Salinas (-12.4%), and Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley (12.2%). Three out of four of these locations are home to major universities and, as instruction has moved online, they have felt a distinct impact from the lack of student spending at local and surrounding businesses.
  • The Inland Empire’s labor market continues to steadily recover from the pandemic, adding 74,700 jobs since April’s lows. Still, on an annual basis, year-over-year employment has fallen by 132,900 jobs. The region is outpacing the state in terms of job recovery but trailing the nation.
  • Not surprisingly, the sectors experiencing the largest job losses in the Inland Empire are Leisure and Hospitality, Retail Trade, Other Services (includes hair and nail salons), Manufacturing, and Government. Once the virus is controlled, however, these sectors are expected to ramp up production to meet surging consumer demand.

The 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference was held virtually on October 13th. A copy of the forecast book can be downloaded in its entirety here. 

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The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

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Business

GreenRock Capital and J.P. Morgan Close $103 Million Tax-Exempt Financing for Ontario Hotel and Conference Center

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1 week ago

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May 14, 2026

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GreenRock and J.P. Morgan Deliver $103 Million in Tax-Exempt C-PACE and Mortgage Revenue Bond Financing for National CORE’s Hyatt Regency Ontario

GreenRock Capital LLC announces the close of a $103 million financing for the Ontario Airport Hotel and Conference Center in Ontario, California. The $103 million package pairs $26 million in tax-exempt C-PACE bonds with $77 million in tax-exempt mortgage revenue bonds, all underwritten by J.P. Morgan and placed with municipal bond investors.

“This innovative and successful transaction was a result of a true team effort, and we are thrilled with the outcome for all,” said Matt Smith, Principal at GreenRock Capital.

National CORE owns the property, which is being transformed into the Hyatt Regency Ontario through a comprehensive renovation and repositioning effort. Financing proceeds will support the redevelopment of the existing 309-room hotel into a 295-room upscale Hyatt Regency destination featuring expanded suites, a redesigned lobby experience, upgraded food and beverage offerings, a new Club Lounge, more than 16,000 square feet of meeting space and fully renovated guestrooms and common areas.

“This transaction reflects the confidence investors have in both the strength of the project and the experienced team behind it,” said Robert Diaz, Executive Vice President of National CORE and project lead for this effort. “We are grateful to GreenRock Capital, J.P. Morgan, and our partners for helping bring this transformative vision to life. The overwhelming response to the offering reinforces the long-term potential of this property and its impact on the Inland Empire.”

Located near Ontario International Airport, Toyota Arena, and the Ontario Convention Center, the hotel sits at the gateway of Ontario and Rancho Cucamonga and is positioned to become a premier hospitality destination for business and leisure travelers throughout the Inland Empire.

“This financing reflects what is possible when a strong sponsor, creative capital partners, and disciplined execution come together around a compelling project,” said Keaton Yellin of JLL Capital Markets, which arranged the financing.

“The financing structure for this project represents an innovative approach to capitalizing hospitality assets in today’s market,” said Fred Schuster of FGS Realty Advisors, who assisted the Sponsor with the transaction.  “By combining tax-exempt C-PACE with tax-exempt mortgage revenue bonds, the team was able to deliver a compelling financing package that aligns long-term capital with a transformative hospitality investment.”

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Business

Morongo Invests in Inland Empire Sports and Entertainment with New Baseball Partnerships

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1 month ago

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April 6, 2026

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Deal with Ontario Tower Buzzers and Rancho Cucamonga Quakes strengthens community engagement and fan experience

The Morongo Casino Resort Spa, the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes have announced a new partnership by which Morongo is now the presenting sponsor of the Tower Buzzers and the official field naming sponsor at the Quakes’ Epicenter Stadium.

Under the multi-year agreement, Morongo is now the “presenting sponsor of the Ontario Tower Buzzers,” the new Minor League affiliate of the 2025 World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Additionally, the home of the Quakes has been renamed the “Morongo Field at the Epicenter” strengthening Morongo’s connection to sports fans across the Inland Empire.

The innovative collaboration marks a fresh advancement in the Morongo Casino’s ongoing investment in entertainment and recreation in the Inland Empire.

“Baseball is America’s pastime because of its power to bring people together,” said Morongo Tribal Chairman Charles Martin. “We are thrilled to join with the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes to celebrate this tradition while creating new opportunities for families across the Inland Empire to enjoy the excitement of the game.”

“At Morongo Casino Resort Spa, our brand is built on delivering exceptional guest experiences centered on entertainment, excitement, and memorable moments,” said Mike Bean, Chief Executive Officer of Morongo Casino Resort & Spa. “Partnering with the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes reflects that same commitment as our three organizations work to create energy, community pride, and unforgettable experiences for fans.”

“This partnership is a great example of what makes Minor League Baseball so special — bringing together strong community partners, great organizations, and unforgettable fan experiences,” said Diamond Baseball Holdings West Region Vice President Ben Taylor. “Morongo’s commitment to entertainment and community aligns perfectly with our vision for both the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. We’re excited to see this collaboration elevate the experience for fans across the Inland Empire.”

The partnership debuted during a pair of special events celebrating the start of the 2026 season.

  • On April 2, Morongo joined the Ontario Tower Buzzers for the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the beautiful new ONT Field, which was followed by the ball club’s first-ever season opener before a sold-out crowd as the team took flight on its inaugural season.
  • On April 3, fans enjoyed Morongo Diamond Nights where the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes unveiled Morongo Field at the Epicenter during a special game-day celebration.

The Ontario Tower Buzzers brand reflects the city’s proud aviation heritage and its close connection to Ontario International Airport. The team’s name and their mascot, Maverick, evoke the adrenaline and daring of aviation’s most thrilling flybys while celebrating the airport control tower that has guided thousands of flights into Ontario. Inspired by that spirit of precision and innovation, the team’s name captures the city’s can-do attitude.

Launched in 1993, the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes have been one of Minor League Baseball’s most beloved franchises, building a loyal fan base and a reputation for family-friendly entertainment at the Epicenter. As the Minor League affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels, the club has earned three California League championships (1994, 2015 and 2018) while creating lasting memories for local baseball fans. The newly named Morongo Field at the Epicenter marks an exciting new chapter for the ballpark and the community that has supported Quakes baseball for decades.

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Business

Unisource Solutions Grows Its Inland Empire Presence with the Addition of TOTALPLAN Business Interiors

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2 months ago

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March 12, 2026

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Southern California’s leading workplace design and furnishings resource deepens its regional presence by uniting with a 57-year Inland Empire institution. 

Unisource Solutions, California’s Haworth Best in Class dealership and a comprehensive  workplace design resource, has announced the acquisition of TOTALPLAN a fixture of the  Inland Empire business community since 1969. The strategic partnership brings together  two organizations with a combined heritage of more than 80 years of expertise, unifying  their complementary strengths to better serve businesses, architects, and interior  designers across the Inland Empire. 

Founded in 1987, Unisource Solutions has built its reputation as far more than a furniture  dealer. The company operates as a full-service design resource — offering space planning, workplace strategy and analytics, installation services, project management, and custom furnishings through its in-house brand, Platform by Unisource Solutions. With access to more than 300 manufacturers, Unisource serves clients across corporate, healthcare, higher education, and financial sectors. 

TOTALPLAN has spent more than five decades cultivating trusted relationships with  businesses of all sizes throughout the Inland. Under the leadership of owner Denny  Fosdick, TOTALPLAN earned a reputation for quality service, community investment, and a deep understanding of the regional market. 

“For over 57 years, TOTALPLAN has been dedicated to providing exceptional workspace solutions throughout the Inland Empire and beyond. Now, we’re excited to join forces with Unisource Solutions. This partnership brings together our deep community roots with Unisource’s extensive resources and capabilities. I’m proud to pass the torch to a fellow Inland Empire resident who understands this community and will carry on the legacy we’ve built here.”  —Denny Fosdick, Owner, TOTALPLAN Business Interiors 

Jamal Nasserdeen, President of Unisource Solutions, who grew up in the Inland Empire,  expressed the personal significance of the acquisition and its implications for Unisource’s  long-term growth strategy in the region. 

“Growing up and living in the Inland Empire, it’s a true honor to build on the tremendous 57-year legacy that Denny and his team have established. This partnership marks a pivotal moment in our growth journey, significantly expanding our capabilities throughout the region and strengthening our position as Southern California’s premier workplace solutions provider. It’s a privilege to bring TOTALPLAN into the Unisource Solutions family.”  — Jamal Nasserdeen, President, Unisource Solutions 

The partnership also carries the endorsement of Haworth, the globally recognized  furniture manufacturer for which Unisource holds its Best-in-Class dealer designation.  Tom Peyton, Haworth’s Regional Vice President for the West Region, noted that the  partnership reinforces the strength of Unisource’s regional coverage and honors the  trusted relationships TOTALPLAN has spent decades building. 

The combined organization now brings a unified offering across workplace design, multi brand furniture sourcing, custom fabrication through Platform by Unisource Solutions,  and comprehensive facilities services including delivery, installation, reconfiguration, and relocation support. Clients across architecture, interior design, and corporate facilities teams will benefit from a single, deeply resourced partner capable of supporting  projects from initial concept through move-in. 

For businesses in the Inland Empire seeking to transform their workspaces, the new  partnership signals expanded local access to a nationally capable team, one that is deeply  invested in the communities it serves. 

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