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A Recession That Is Technically Over And A Full Recovery That Is Dependent On Containing COVID-19; New Economic Forecast Is Both Upbeat And Cautionary

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California Labor Market Recovering But Rate Of Job Growth Has Slowed; Hardest Hit Sectors In The Inland Empire Expected To Face Surging Demand Once Virus is Controlled

October 13th, 2020 — The United States economy can and is bouncing back rapidly from the severe and unprecedented pandemic-driven downturn that began early this year, according to a new economic forecast released today at the 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference. Despite the alarming and record-breaking decline in economic output that occurred in the 2nd quarter, and the ongoing painful effects of the COVID-19 epidemic itself, the economy remains fundamentally strong, and in many ways is already rebounding.

“The United States hit its low point in the current downturn back in April, and since that time the nation’s economy has been moving back towards more normal levels of economic output,” said Christopher Thornberg, Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report authors. “As odd as it may sound, technically, this recession is over, making it the deepest, but shortest in U.S. history.”

Thornberg emphasizes that this does not mean harsh recessionary effects are not still being felt, especially among some industries and individuals, but that everything from the unemployment rate to the rate of job recovery to consumer spending indicate that the economy is growing. Moreover, as spending has been curtailed for the past seven months, the ‘fuel’ that has built up in the form of increased wealth and savings is waiting to set off a vigorous expansion once the virus is controlled.

Despite the ostensible contradiction of a deep, short recession, the new forecast argues that as dramatically bad as the 2nd quarter numbers were, the pandemic-driven shocks to the economy were largely transitory and not based on any fundamental financial or economic imbalance. Today, the share of the U.S. labor force that is truly unemployed (meaning workers who have permanently lost their jobs or are actively looking for new work) stands at just under 5%, significantly lower than the 8% plus rate seen at the peak of the Great Recession. Workers who consider themselves temporarily laid off make up about 3% of the current U.S. unemployed workforce.

The new forecast includes outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. Across geographies, the forecasts are relatively rosy but come with a key caveat: Full recovery and resumption of economic activity/output is firmly dependent on containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Select Key Findings:

  • The underlying strength of the U.S. economy at the start of the pandemic has been excessively (yes, excessively) reinforced by the Federal government’s $3 trillion stimulus plan. Lost economic activity in the first half of 2020 stands at approximately $600 billion, 20% of the size of the stimulus package.
  • Total personal income in the United State has actually increased during the course of the pandemic as spending has fallen. That has caused consumer savings to shoot up to almost $1.2 trillion, four times what it was in the 4th quarter of 2019.
  • The California labor market continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic although the rate of job growth has slowed in the months since June’s strong bounce when 558,200 positions were added back into the economy. The slowing rate is due in large part to the reimplementation of business closures and restraints as a result of the virus resurging.
  • As health-mandated restrictions in the state continue, cities in California that rely heavily on tourism/visitors and the transient occupancy tax, will experience real hardship due to revenue losses.
  • As of this writing, the cities in California with the largest job losses are Santa Cruz (-14.7%), San Luis Obispo (-13.3%), Salinas (-12.4%), and Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley (12.2%). Three out of four of these locations are home to major universities and, as instruction has moved online, they have felt a distinct impact from the lack of student spending at local and surrounding businesses.
  • The Inland Empire’s labor market continues to steadily recover from the pandemic, adding 74,700 jobs since April’s lows. Still, on an annual basis, year-over-year employment has fallen by 132,900 jobs. The region is outpacing the state in terms of job recovery but trailing the nation.
  • Not surprisingly, the sectors experiencing the largest job losses in the Inland Empire are Leisure and Hospitality, Retail Trade, Other Services (includes hair and nail salons), Manufacturing, and Government. Once the virus is controlled, however, these sectors are expected to ramp up production to meet surging consumer demand.

The 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference was held virtually on October 13th. A copy of the forecast book can be downloaded in its entirety here

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

Business

Fire Helmet Manufacturer Helps Disabled Community find Employment

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Riverside’s Phenix Technology Leads with Inclusion, Empowering the Disabled Community Through Workforce Training and Employer Education

Written by Logan Rosselli, IEBJ Content Contributor

In the heart of Riverside, off of Chicago Avenue, a small, but mighty team has been quietly manufacturing life-saving equipment for firefighters across the world for over 50 years. Phenix Technology Inc. is an internationally recognized fire helmet manufacturer who builds their products from start to finish right here in the Inland Empire. For their great products, they’ve received numerous awards such as the Greater Riverside Chamber of Commerce’s 2025 Innovator of the Year, a 2016 “E” for Exports award from the U.S. Department of Commerce, a finalist position in the “Coolest Thing Made in California” competition and more. However, their most recent accolade doesn’t involve their products at all.

In 2024, Phenix founded the ground breaking “Opportunity for All” program to provide disabled community members with the opportunity to access career education, hands-on experience and employment opportunities through an 11 week training cohort. In this program, neurodivergent individuals wanting to find stable employment learn about standard hiring practices, writing a resume, effective interviewing and professional attire while getting on-the-job training with a partnered employer in the community. It has helped dozens of disabled community members to find a new sense of independence and achieve their full potential while helping local employers find dependable employees who bring a unique perspective to the workplace.

It’s for this program that the National Association of Workforce Development Boards (NAWB), a representative of over 570 workforce development boards across the United States, honored Phenix with the prestigious W.O. Lawton Business Leadership Award in late March.

“While we take tremendous pride in the products we make, we also believe we have a mission to create a better world through developing opportunities,” said Angel Sanchez, CEO of Phenix Technology in a statement released in early April. “Opportunity for All has helped prove that individuals who have historically been excluded from the workforce don’t just contribute — they elevate organizations. We are honored to receive this national award and grateful to the partners who have helped us make this vision a reality.”

CEO Angel Sanchez Jr. accepts the NAWB Award

CEO Angel Sanchez Jr. accepts the NAWB Award

Though “Opportunity for All” is certainly the cornerstone program for the company, Phenix’s leadership team was not satisfied to leave their mission there. Thus, in 2024, the company founded its nonprofit arm, Phenix Gateway to offer more programs and advocacy to the community. Through Phenix Gateway, the company offers workforce development workshops for individuals who don’t need the full scale of the “Opportunity for All” program, but want to improve a specific skill like resume writing or workplace social skills.

However, Phenix knows that preparing disabled people for the workforce is only one end of the equation; the workforce also has to be prepared to accept the unique skills, perspectives and challenges of the disabled community. For this reason, Phenix Gateway offers employer training workshops as well as educational materials available to businesses and the community. Training programs cover a lot of ground, ranging from assistance with optimizing interviews for people with neurodevelopmental disorders to creating sensory-friendly environments in the workplace.

In Riverside, these programs have had a huge impact on the local community. As of March 2025, Phenix’s Opportunity for All program has had over two dozen participants and 44% found stable employment through or after the program. Their one-off workforce development workshops have seen over 200 participants learn new skills and help them find employment and the nonprofit currently partners with close to 90 businesses to assist them in their endeavor to create a more inclusive workforce.

Phenix Gateway staff helps a program participant with his skills

For businesses or community members interested in learning how they can support or participate in these programs, Phenix encourages them to reach out by email to info@phenixgateway.org and to attend their First Annual Gala: Rising Together, A Phenix Gateway Celebration, on Thursday, May 15th. Tickets for this event are available at phenixgateway.org.

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Supported by Local Leaders, CALED’s Annual Conference will be in Ontario this May

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Empowering Economic Growth: CALED Conference Set to Unite Industry Leaders in Ontario

CALED’s ‘Growing Local Economies from the Ground Up’ Conference is being held in Ontario at the DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Ontario Airport on May 7-9. This event is co-hosted by the City of Ontario and San Bernardino County, with Jennifer McLain Hiramoto, CALED’s Chair of the Board and Derek Armstrong respectively representing their city and county as Co-Chairs of the event.

With over 950 members and 45 years of empowering economic developers, CALED is the largest economic development association in the country and the annual conference is the number one place to meet and connect with the boots-on-the -ground, decision makers in our communities. 

The conference will include a pre-conference teaching tour, ‘Building & Paying for Development Projects’ on May 6th and then begin in full on May 7th, with a welcome session and breakouts. Overall, there will be four general assembly sessions and 18 breakout sessions, which will delve into local economic development practices and innovative tools.

In addition to compelling content, the conference will have numerous opportunities to connect with community leaders and valued peers through networking receptions, the culinary crawl, and new this year, the Tournament of Champions, where conference attendees will navigate a gauntlet of games to win the grand prize on the evening of Thursday, May 8th.

To learn more about the conference and register, visit the CALED website at www.caled.org.

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Strengthening Community Connections: Our Exciting New Partnership with Toyota Arena, Ontario Convention Center, and GOCAL

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Contributed Content | By Chris Venhoff, Senior Vice President and Inland Empire Market Leader for Consumer and Business Banking at U.S. Bank

As the Inland Empire market leader for U.S. Bank, I’m thrilled to share some exciting news: we are proud to be the Official Bank Partner of Toyota Arena and Ontario Convention Center. This partnership represents a reflection of our deep commitment to the Inland Empire and our dedication to fostering a vibrant, thriving community.

At U.S. Bank, we believe that strong partnerships drive meaningful progress. Toyota Arena and Ontario Convention Center are at the heart of the region’s culture and economy, bringing people together for world-class entertainment, business conventions, and community events. By joining forces, we’re not only expanding our presence but also creating opportunities to engage with residents, businesses, and organizations in ways that make a lasting impact.

Through our sponsorship, we’ll support concerts, sporting events, and conventions that showcase the diversity and energy of the Inland Empire. But this is only the beginning. As our partnership evolves, we’ll work closely with Toyota Arena, Ontario Convention Center, and GOCAL to introduce community-focused programs, including financial literacy workshops and charitable giving initiatives.

This partnership is designed to bring added value to the people we serve. For our customers, we’re introducing the U.S. Bank Fast Pass Lanes, providing priority access at Toyota Arena events. Special offers, exclusive event experiences, and tailored financial solutions for businesses operating in the region are just a few of the many perks we’re excited to roll out.

Our employees are at the core of our success, and this partnership allows us to recognize their dedication. Through exclusive access to events, corporate hospitality opportunities, and community volunteer programs, our team will have new ways to engage with and celebrate the community they serve.

The Inland Empire is a dynamic, fast-growing region, and we’re committed to supporting its continued success. By investing in Toyota Arena and Ontario Convention Center, we’re helping to create and sustain jobs while driving local business growth. These venues bring in visitors, revenue, and visibility, strengthening the region’s economy.

This collaboration is about more than just sponsorship—it’s about making a difference. By working together, we can elevate not just these venues but the entire Inland Empire. At U.S. Bank, we’re committed to being a partner in progress, supporting our customers, businesses, and communities every step of the way.

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