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A Recession That Is Technically Over And A Full Recovery That Is Dependent On Containing COVID-19; New Economic Forecast Is Both Upbeat And Cautionary

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California Labor Market Recovering But Rate Of Job Growth Has Slowed; Hardest Hit Sectors In The Inland Empire Expected To Face Surging Demand Once Virus is Controlled

October 13th, 2020 — The United States economy can and is bouncing back rapidly from the severe and unprecedented pandemic-driven downturn that began early this year, according to a new economic forecast released today at the 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference. Despite the alarming and record-breaking decline in economic output that occurred in the 2nd quarter, and the ongoing painful effects of the COVID-19 epidemic itself, the economy remains fundamentally strong, and in many ways is already rebounding.

“The United States hit its low point in the current downturn back in April, and since that time the nation’s economy has been moving back towards more normal levels of economic output,” said Christopher Thornberg, Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report authors. “As odd as it may sound, technically, this recession is over, making it the deepest, but shortest in U.S. history.”

Thornberg emphasizes that this does not mean harsh recessionary effects are not still being felt, especially among some industries and individuals, but that everything from the unemployment rate to the rate of job recovery to consumer spending indicate that the economy is growing. Moreover, as spending has been curtailed for the past seven months, the ‘fuel’ that has built up in the form of increased wealth and savings is waiting to set off a vigorous expansion once the virus is controlled.

Despite the ostensible contradiction of a deep, short recession, the new forecast argues that as dramatically bad as the 2nd quarter numbers were, the pandemic-driven shocks to the economy were largely transitory and not based on any fundamental financial or economic imbalance. Today, the share of the U.S. labor force that is truly unemployed (meaning workers who have permanently lost their jobs or are actively looking for new work) stands at just under 5%, significantly lower than the 8% plus rate seen at the peak of the Great Recession. Workers who consider themselves temporarily laid off make up about 3% of the current U.S. unemployed workforce.

The new forecast includes outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. Across geographies, the forecasts are relatively rosy but come with a key caveat: Full recovery and resumption of economic activity/output is firmly dependent on containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Select Key Findings:

  • The underlying strength of the U.S. economy at the start of the pandemic has been excessively (yes, excessively) reinforced by the Federal government’s $3 trillion stimulus plan. Lost economic activity in the first half of 2020 stands at approximately $600 billion, 20% of the size of the stimulus package.
  • Total personal income in the United State has actually increased during the course of the pandemic as spending has fallen. That has caused consumer savings to shoot up to almost $1.2 trillion, four times what it was in the 4th quarter of 2019.
  • The California labor market continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic although the rate of job growth has slowed in the months since June’s strong bounce when 558,200 positions were added back into the economy. The slowing rate is due in large part to the reimplementation of business closures and restraints as a result of the virus resurging.
  • As health-mandated restrictions in the state continue, cities in California that rely heavily on tourism/visitors and the transient occupancy tax, will experience real hardship due to revenue losses.
  • As of this writing, the cities in California with the largest job losses are Santa Cruz (-14.7%), San Luis Obispo (-13.3%), Salinas (-12.4%), and Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley (12.2%). Three out of four of these locations are home to major universities and, as instruction has moved online, they have felt a distinct impact from the lack of student spending at local and surrounding businesses.
  • The Inland Empire’s labor market continues to steadily recover from the pandemic, adding 74,700 jobs since April’s lows. Still, on an annual basis, year-over-year employment has fallen by 132,900 jobs. The region is outpacing the state in terms of job recovery but trailing the nation.
  • Not surprisingly, the sectors experiencing the largest job losses in the Inland Empire are Leisure and Hospitality, Retail Trade, Other Services (includes hair and nail salons), Manufacturing, and Government. Once the virus is controlled, however, these sectors are expected to ramp up production to meet surging consumer demand.

The 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference was held virtually on October 13th. A copy of the forecast book can be downloaded in its entirety here

The Inland Empire Business Journal (IEBJ) is the official business news publication of Southern California’s Inland Empire region - covering San Bernardino & Riverside Counties.

Business

Morongo Invests in Inland Empire Sports and Entertainment with New Baseball Partnerships

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Deal with Ontario Tower Buzzers and Rancho Cucamonga Quakes strengthens community engagement and fan experience

The Morongo Casino Resort Spa, the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes have announced a new partnership by which Morongo is now the presenting sponsor of the Tower Buzzers and the official field naming sponsor at the Quakes’ Epicenter Stadium.

Under the multi-year agreement, Morongo is now the “presenting sponsor of the Ontario Tower Buzzers,” the new Minor League affiliate of the 2025 World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Additionally, the home of the Quakes has been renamed the “Morongo Field at the Epicenter” strengthening Morongo’s connection to sports fans across the Inland Empire.

The innovative collaboration marks a fresh advancement in the Morongo Casino’s ongoing investment in entertainment and recreation in the Inland Empire.

“Baseball is America’s pastime because of its power to bring people together,” said Morongo Tribal Chairman Charles Martin. “We are thrilled to join with the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes to celebrate this tradition while creating new opportunities for families across the Inland Empire to enjoy the excitement of the game.”

“At Morongo Casino Resort Spa, our brand is built on delivering exceptional guest experiences centered on entertainment, excitement, and memorable moments,” said Mike Bean, Chief Executive Officer of Morongo Casino Resort & Spa. “Partnering with the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes reflects that same commitment as our three organizations work to create energy, community pride, and unforgettable experiences for fans.”

“This partnership is a great example of what makes Minor League Baseball so special — bringing together strong community partners, great organizations, and unforgettable fan experiences,” said Diamond Baseball Holdings West Region Vice President Ben Taylor. “Morongo’s commitment to entertainment and community aligns perfectly with our vision for both the Ontario Tower Buzzers and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. We’re excited to see this collaboration elevate the experience for fans across the Inland Empire.”

The partnership debuted during a pair of special events celebrating the start of the 2026 season.

  • On April 2, Morongo joined the Ontario Tower Buzzers for the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the beautiful new ONT Field, which was followed by the ball club’s first-ever season opener before a sold-out crowd as the team took flight on its inaugural season.
  • On April 3, fans enjoyed Morongo Diamond Nights where the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes unveiled Morongo Field at the Epicenter during a special game-day celebration.

The Ontario Tower Buzzers brand reflects the city’s proud aviation heritage and its close connection to Ontario International Airport. The team’s name and their mascot, Maverick, evoke the adrenaline and daring of aviation’s most thrilling flybys while celebrating the airport control tower that has guided thousands of flights into Ontario. Inspired by that spirit of precision and innovation, the team’s name captures the city’s can-do attitude.

Launched in 1993, the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes have been one of Minor League Baseball’s most beloved franchises, building a loyal fan base and a reputation for family-friendly entertainment at the Epicenter. As the Minor League affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels, the club has earned three California League championships (1994, 2015 and 2018) while creating lasting memories for local baseball fans. The newly named Morongo Field at the Epicenter marks an exciting new chapter for the ballpark and the community that has supported Quakes baseball for decades.

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Unisource Solutions Grows Its Inland Empire Presence with the Addition of TOTALPLAN Business Interiors

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Southern California’s leading workplace design and furnishings resource deepens its regional presence by uniting with a 57-year Inland Empire institution. 

Unisource Solutions, California’s Haworth Best in Class dealership and a comprehensive  workplace design resource, has announced the acquisition of TOTALPLAN a fixture of the  Inland Empire business community since 1969. The strategic partnership brings together  two organizations with a combined heritage of more than 80 years of expertise, unifying  their complementary strengths to better serve businesses, architects, and interior  designers across the Inland Empire. 

Founded in 1987, Unisource Solutions has built its reputation as far more than a furniture  dealer. The company operates as a full-service design resource — offering space planning, workplace strategy and analytics, installation services, project management, and custom furnishings through its in-house brand, Platform by Unisource Solutions. With access to more than 300 manufacturers, Unisource serves clients across corporate, healthcare, higher education, and financial sectors. 

TOTALPLAN has spent more than five decades cultivating trusted relationships with  businesses of all sizes throughout the Inland. Under the leadership of owner Denny  Fosdick, TOTALPLAN earned a reputation for quality service, community investment, and a deep understanding of the regional market. 

“For over 57 years, TOTALPLAN has been dedicated to providing exceptional workspace solutions throughout the Inland Empire and beyond. Now, we’re excited to join forces with Unisource Solutions. This partnership brings together our deep community roots with Unisource’s extensive resources and capabilities. I’m proud to pass the torch to a fellow Inland Empire resident who understands this community and will carry on the legacy we’ve built here.”  —Denny Fosdick, Owner, TOTALPLAN Business Interiors 

Jamal Nasserdeen, President of Unisource Solutions, who grew up in the Inland Empire,  expressed the personal significance of the acquisition and its implications for Unisource’s  long-term growth strategy in the region. 

“Growing up and living in the Inland Empire, it’s a true honor to build on the tremendous 57-year legacy that Denny and his team have established. This partnership marks a pivotal moment in our growth journey, significantly expanding our capabilities throughout the region and strengthening our position as Southern California’s premier workplace solutions provider. It’s a privilege to bring TOTALPLAN into the Unisource Solutions family.”  — Jamal Nasserdeen, President, Unisource Solutions 

The partnership also carries the endorsement of Haworth, the globally recognized  furniture manufacturer for which Unisource holds its Best-in-Class dealer designation.  Tom Peyton, Haworth’s Regional Vice President for the West Region, noted that the  partnership reinforces the strength of Unisource’s regional coverage and honors the  trusted relationships TOTALPLAN has spent decades building. 

The combined organization now brings a unified offering across workplace design, multi brand furniture sourcing, custom fabrication through Platform by Unisource Solutions,  and comprehensive facilities services including delivery, installation, reconfiguration, and relocation support. Clients across architecture, interior design, and corporate facilities teams will benefit from a single, deeply resourced partner capable of supporting  projects from initial concept through move-in. 

For businesses in the Inland Empire seeking to transform their workspaces, the new  partnership signals expanded local access to a nationally capable team, one that is deeply  invested in the communities it serves. 

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Business

Ontario Set to Open Newest Play Street Museum Location

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A children’s museum and indoor play area that lets imaginations wander open soon to local community 

Play Street Museum, an interactive children’s museum and indoor play area purposefully designed to encourage a young child’s sense of independence, exploration, and creativity, will be opening its newest franchise location in the coming weeks in Ontario, California. Locally owned by Teresa and Sergio Carreras, the coming location marks a key milestone in an expanding franchise program, with its first location in California. 

“We’re thrilled to bring the newest Play Street Museum to Ontario for our local community to enjoy,” shared Teresa and Sergio Carreras. “After visiting Play Street Museum with our grandchildren, we knew we had to bring a location to California, and we’re excited to share it with the community and hope it serves Inland Empire families in big ways.” 

“We’re proud empty nesters and even prouder grandparents of five wonderful grandchildren. Becoming grandparents has been one of the greatest joys of our lives. This season of life has given us the opportunity to slow down and truly savor the wonder of childhood again,” continued Carreras. “We look forward to welcoming local families, schools, and community groups to experience everything the new Play Street Museum has to offer.” 

Teresa and Sergio Carreras believe children learn best when they’re having fun and can touch, build, pretend, and explore. Every exhibit at Play Street Museum Ontario is designed to spark curiosity, creativity and confidence. Whether children are running a pretend grocery store, experimenting with simple science, creating art, or climbing into imaginative worlds, children are learning skills that will stay with them for a lifetime. “This space is not just for kids. It’s for grandparents who cherish story time in a cozy corner. For parents who light up watching their child try something new. For caregivers who treasure the laughter and togetherness of play,” shared Carreras. 

Play Street Museum offers an expansive, rotating curriculum at each location specifically designed for children under nine years of age. Everyday and every week is different at Play Street Museum, providing motivation and justification 

for a scheduled time in families’ busy calendars. Play Street Museum Ontario also offers one-of-a-kind birthday parties, complete with comprehensive themes and options for parents from “Do-It-Yourself” to “Sit Back & Relax”, in addition to special events and activities during evenings and weekends. 

In Scientific American’s article, “The Need for Pretend Play in Child Development”, Yale professor Dr. Scott Barry Kaufman summarized the last 75 years of research by declaring imaginative play as a “vital component to the normal development of a child.” By narrowing the focus of Play Street Museum and its indoor play areas to the interests and imaginations of children eight and under, young explorers discover educational exhibits and activities in a world specifically crafted just for them. The deliberate and manageable scale enables children to self-navigate throughout the children’s museum and indoor play area to engage deeply in activities about which they are most interested and passionate. This freedom reinforces independence in the child and also has the benefit of creating a more relaxed and accommodating museum experience for the caregiver. 

“Play Street Museum is thrilled to welcome and open the Ontario location soon with our incredible partners, Teresa and Sergio Carreras. As parents and grandparents, they understand the powerful impact of play and intentionally sought to bring its benefits to this part of the Ontario area. They’ve taken their passion for children, education, and play and applied it to building a dynamic, local business that will support the health and well-being of their own community,” commented Play Street Museum Founder and CEO, Courtney Muccio

Located at 910 North Haven Avenue, Suite 150, the new Ontario location makes the extensive, and well researched benefits of play easily accessible to the local community. The museum’s team of highly knowledgeable associates can provide guidance on additional opportunities to expand the play and learning, either on site or at home, from corresponding activity kits, to pottery, to slime kits, to sensory kits. Customers can also book their play time in advance in addition to schedule birthday parties or private events. 

Families and customers can visit 

https://www.ontario.playstreetmuseum.com/ to book playtime, birthday parties, field trips, and to check out special events. 

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