Business
A Recession That Is Technically Over And A Full Recovery That Is Dependent On Containing COVID-19; New Economic Forecast Is Both Upbeat And Cautionary

California Labor Market Recovering But Rate Of Job Growth Has Slowed; Hardest Hit Sectors In The Inland Empire Expected To Face Surging Demand Once Virus is Controlled
October 13th, 2020 — The United States economy can and is bouncing back rapidly from the severe and unprecedented pandemic-driven downturn that began early this year, according to a new economic forecast released today at the 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference. Despite the alarming and record-breaking decline in economic output that occurred in the 2nd quarter, and the ongoing painful effects of the COVID-19 epidemic itself, the economy remains fundamentally strong, and in many ways is already rebounding.
“The United States hit its low point in the current downturn back in April, and since that time the nation’s economy has been moving back towards more normal levels of economic output,” said Christopher Thornberg, Director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and one of the report authors. “As odd as it may sound, technically, this recession is over, making it the deepest, but shortest in U.S. history.”
Thornberg emphasizes that this does not mean harsh recessionary effects are not still being felt, especially among some industries and individuals, but that everything from the unemployment rate to the rate of job recovery to consumer spending indicate that the economy is growing. Moreover, as spending has been curtailed for the past seven months, the ‘fuel’ that has built up in the form of increased wealth and savings is waiting to set off a vigorous expansion once the virus is controlled.
Despite the ostensible contradiction of a deep, short recession, the new forecast argues that as dramatically bad as the 2nd quarter numbers were, the pandemic-driven shocks to the economy were largely transitory and not based on any fundamental financial or economic imbalance. Today, the share of the U.S. labor force that is truly unemployed (meaning workers who have permanently lost their jobs or are actively looking for new work) stands at just under 5%, significantly lower than the 8% plus rate seen at the peak of the Great Recession. Workers who consider themselves temporarily laid off make up about 3% of the current U.S. unemployed workforce.
The new forecast includes outlooks for the U.S., California, and Inland Empire economies. Across geographies, the forecasts are relatively rosy but come with a key caveat: Full recovery and resumption of economic activity/output is firmly dependent on containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus.
Select Key Findings:
- The underlying strength of the U.S. economy at the start of the pandemic has been excessively (yes, excessively) reinforced by the Federal government’s $3 trillion stimulus plan. Lost economic activity in the first half of 2020 stands at approximately $600 billion, 20% of the size of the stimulus package.
- Total personal income in the United State has actually increased during the course of the pandemic as spending has fallen. That has caused consumer savings to shoot up to almost $1.2 trillion, four times what it was in the 4th quarter of 2019.
- The California labor market continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic although the rate of job growth has slowed in the months since June’s strong bounce when 558,200 positions were added back into the economy. The slowing rate is due in large part to the reimplementation of business closures and restraints as a result of the virus resurging.
- As health-mandated restrictions in the state continue, cities in California that rely heavily on tourism/visitors and the transient occupancy tax, will experience real hardship due to revenue losses.
- As of this writing, the cities in California with the largest job losses are Santa Cruz (-14.7%), San Luis Obispo (-13.3%), Salinas (-12.4%), and Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley (12.2%). Three out of four of these locations are home to major universities and, as instruction has moved online, they have felt a distinct impact from the lack of student spending at local and surrounding businesses.
- The Inland Empire’s labor market continues to steadily recover from the pandemic, adding 74,700 jobs since April’s lows. Still, on an annual basis, year-over-year employment has fallen by 132,900 jobs. The region is outpacing the state in terms of job recovery but trailing the nation.
- Not surprisingly, the sectors experiencing the largest job losses in the Inland Empire are Leisure and Hospitality, Retail Trade, Other Services (includes hair and nail salons), Manufacturing, and Government. Once the virus is controlled, however, these sectors are expected to ramp up production to meet surging consumer demand.
The 11th annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference was held virtually on October 13th. A copy of the forecast book can be downloaded in its entirety here.
Business
Inland Empire Celebrates Entrepreneurial Excellence at Spirit Awards Gala

Honoring Visionary Leaders Driving Innovation and Community Impact
The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala, held at the Riverside Convention Center, celebrated the brightest entrepreneurial talent across the Inland Empire. Among the evening’s finalists was Edward Ornelas, Jr., President & CEO of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, who was honored in the Social Entrepreneur category for his outstanding leadership and commitment to the region.
Although Ornelas did not win, the Social Entrepreneur award went to Cesar Navarrete, President & CEO of Children’s Fund, a proud Chamber member. “Being a finalist alongside such remarkable leaders is an incredible honor,” said Ornelas. “I am especially thrilled to see Cesar, a Chamber member, recognized for the transformative work he’s doing to improve the lives of children in our community. It’s a proud moment for us all.”
Another highlight of the evening was the recognition of Hilda Kennedy, President & Founder of AMPAC Business Capital, another Chamber member, who was awarded the Top Female Entrepreneur category. Hilda’s leadership at AMPAC, a mission-driven business lender, has been instrumental in empowering small businesses and fostering economic growth across the region.
“It’s amazing to see leaders like Hilda and Cesar being celebrated for their contributions,” added Ornelas. “Their achievements underscore the talent and dedication of entrepreneurs in our Chamber and across the Inland Empire. They are setting the standard for excellence and impact in their fields.”
The evening also featured the prestigious “Best of the Best” Award, sponsored by Best Best & Krieger LLP, which was awarded to Mauro Gomez, Chief Growth Officer of Anita’s Mexican Foods Corp.. Based in San Bernardino, Anita’s Mexican Foods has grown from modest beginnings into a leader in the food production industry under Gomez’s strategic direction.
The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards Gala continues to shine a spotlight on the transformative work of Inland Empire entrepreneurs, celebrating their innovation, resilience, and commitment to the community.
For more information about the Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards, visit https://www.spiritawardsie.com.
For more details about the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce and its members, visit www.iechamber.org.
Business
Inland Empire Chamber President Edward Ornelas, Jr. Named Finalist for Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards

Celebrating Leadership and Innovation: Ornelas Recognized for Advancing Business Growth and Social Impact in the Inland Empire.
Edward Ornelas Jr., President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce and owner of the Inland Empire Business Journal, has been named a finalist in the famed 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards. Ornelas is honored in the Social Entrepreneur category for his remarkable leadership and vision in fostering business growth and development across the Inland Empire. The award ceremony will take place on November 21, 2024, at the Riverside Convention Center, celebrating the best of entrepreneurship throughout the region.
The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards, often regarded as the “Oscars of Business” in the Inland Empire, recognizes the innovation, leadership, and impact of outstanding entrepreneurs across various sectors. Ornelas joins a select group of 34 finalists, each representing the entrepreneurial spirit and resilience that define the I.E. business community. The Social Entrepreneur category highlights individuals like Ornelas, whose work goes beyond profit to positively impact society.
In his role as President of the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, Ornelas has been a powerful advocate for the business community, connecting small businesses with essential resources and creating opportunities for growth. As the owner of the IE Business Journal, the only publication in the region dedicated solely to business news, Ornelas has provided a platform for local businesses to thrive by sharing their stories and promoting their success. His innovative, forward-thinking approach to marketing has earned him a reputation as a “visionary” and a “get-things-done” leader across both public and private sectors.
“I’m deeply honored to be recognized as a finalist for the 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards. This nomination is a reflection of the incredible businesses and community leaders across the Inland Empire who inspire me every day. At the Inland Empire Regional Chamber of Commerce, our mission is to empower businesses and foster economic growth, and this recognition highlights the collective efforts of our entire community. I’m excited for what the future holds as we continue to work together to make a lasting impact,” said Ornelas.
Other notable finalists for the 2024 Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards include leaders in healthcare innovation, green technology, and digital transformation. Each finalist, selected by a distinguished panel of judges, represents the best in their respective industries and contributes to the Inland Empire’s continued growth as a hub of innovation and entrepreneurship.
The Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards is an annual event that brings together business leaders, community advocates, and entrepreneurs to celebrate the entrepreneurial excellence that drives the region’s economy. This year’s event promises to be a night of inspiration and recognition, showcasing the achievements of finalists like Ornelas, who continue to elevate the Inland Empire’s business landscape.
For more information about the Spirit of the Entrepreneur Awards and to see the full list of finalists, visit www.spiritawardsie.com.
Business
CBRE Opens Newly Renovated, Tech-Enabled Office in the Inland Empire

The office is designed to support hybrid work and employee wellbeing
CBRE announced the opening of its new 10,159-sq.-ft. office suite on the ground floor of 4141 Inland Empire Blvd., in Ontario, Calif.
The office is part of CBRE’s Workplace360 program, which features innovative office designs and functionality, including in-office technology and a wider variety of collaborative spaces designed to support hybrid working. CBRE launched its Workplace360 program over a decade ago in its downtown LA office. Since then, the company has opened more than 100 Workplace360 offices worldwide, continually updating the program as work habits have changed over the years, especially with the increase in hybrid work.
“Our newly renovated space provides us with a great opportunity to deliver a collaborative, experience-driven workplace that supports hybrid work,” said Ian Britton, managing director and market leader for CBRE in Inland Empire. “Our Workplace360 office will also serve as a showpiece to help clients conceptualize flexible work strategies for their employees.”
The renovated office has several different work areas including focus, huddle, living, and conference rooms. The open-space lobby, known as the “Heart,” features a variety of seating and a communal space for collaboration. A large 86” media display with a speaker system welcomes employees, visitors, and clients and assists with onsite events.

New office technology, including touch-enabled video conference rooms, allows for hybrid work collaboration between in-office and remote employees and clients. Additionally, the Mt. Baldy conference room has Liquid Galaxy, a geospatial visualization platform set across large format curved screens providing a cinematic presentation experience. This room has an operable wall that opens to the Heart, creating an onsite event space.
A cornerstone of the Workplace360 model is its free-address approach, in which there is no dedicated seating. The free-address approach allows employees who are in the office on a given day to use any workstation or office.
The office’s design led by CBRE Design Collective, took inspiration from the Inland Empire’s orange groves and mountainous landscapes of Mt. Baldy. Images of Route 66 from local photographer VC Torneden features the role the highway plays in the area.
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