Despite Popular Narratives, California’s Economy is Doing Fine…For Now

Leading Economic Forecast Pushes Back Against “Doom and Gloom” Prophecies; State’s Housing Supply Problem At The Crux Of Slowing Economy

California is far from becoming the ‘failed state’ depicted by critics, and even a cursory look at the data proves it, says one of the state’s leading economic forecasts. According to Beacon Economics‘ latest outlook for California, the state’s economy will continue to grow in the near future and there is little sign of a recession in 2024.

Consider a few of the new forecast’s findings:

• Since just prior to the pandemic, the number of jobs in California has grown by only 2.1%, compared to 3.7% in the nation as a whole, however, the state’s private sector output has grown by 10% compared to just 8% in the nation overall. This means that California’s output has expanded through greater worker productivity.

• California’s median household income grew by 9.2% from 2019 to 2022, compared to just 8% growth in the nation overall. Median incomes in the state are now 14.3% higher than in the U.S. as a whole, the largest gap ever seen in this data.

• Real income (accounts for inflation) has increased despite persistent claims to the contrary. Official data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a 20% increase in consumer prices in California between the end of 2019 and the end of 2023, but a 23% increase in workers’ average weekly earnings over the same period. Importantly, the earnings growth has been greatest among lower skilled workers, according to the new forecast.

• From 2019 to 2022, the average poverty rate in California was 12%, lower than the U.S. average and the lowest level ever seen in the state.

The new forecast is careful to acknowledge California’s glaring problems, including its housing shortage and massive budget deficit, but argues that untruthful and excessively negative narratives are making things materially worse by affecting the way leaders spend their time and do their jobs.

“The state’s economy certainly has its share of problems, but many of these issues are things that can be solved with some pragmatic changes to state policy,” said Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner of Beacon Economics and the forecast author. “When pessimistic public narratives take hold, no matter how false or overblown, elected leaders tend to veer off on impractical missions to fix problems that don’t really exist – at least not in the way these artificial narratives say they do.”

One of the most urgent, and real, challenges facing California this year is it’s colossal budget deficit of between $35 and $70 billion, depending on who you ask. But according to the new forecast, this gap is not a function of the state’s economy, which is growing, it is the obvious (and oft repeated) result of a volatile revenue system that badly needs to be overhauled.

“California loves soak-the-rich policies, and our high marginal tax rate on high-income earners means that when financial markets are hot, revenues surge, but when asset values fall or crash, it cuts deeply into the state’s tax haul,” said Thornberg. “On top of that, we have a mishmash of band aid type laws that have been put in place over the years which force a certain amount of spending, preventing lawmakers from saving for lean times.”

All that said, according to Thornberg, California’s biggest budgetary problem today is not with revenues but expenditures. “State spending is currently 40% higher than it was pre-pandemic, and as painful as it is, the deficit will not fully go away until either programs are cut back or new taxes are raised, both of which would be incredibly difficult to achieve,” he said.

In terms of the state’s economic future, perhaps California’s most burning dilemma is its low supply of housing, which has driven infamously high housing costs and a declining population, ergo workforce. According to the forecast, the only way to fix the problem is to sharply expand the pace of new housing supply. “This is a tremendously consequential issue for the economy and population of the state – a workforce cannot grow if there is nowhere for workers to live,” said Thornberg. “The inability to genuinely tackle our housing supply issue is slowing the mighty California economic machine and the effects we’ve started to see in the past few years will only grow worse.” 

View the new The Beacon Outlook California including full forecast tables here.