State’s Workforce Contracts Again; Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

 California’s labor market grew solidly in the latest numbers, with total nonfarm employment in the state expanding by 40,200 positions during October, according to an analysis released today by Beacon Economics. Indeed, California accounted for over 26% of all the jobs added in the United States in October. Moreover, September’s gains were revised up to 14,400, a 5,700 increase from the preliminary estimate of 8,700.

“Despite the strikes in Hollywood, Los Angeles County led the job gains in the state during the month,” said Taner Osman, Research Manager at Beacon Economics. “Now that the strikes have ended, it should help fuel positive momentum in California’s labor market as we head towards the end of the year.”

There are now 442,410 more people employed in the state compared to February 2020, the pre-pandemic peak. Total nonfarm employment in the state has grown 2.5% since that time, compared to a 3.0% increase nationally. California increased payrolls by 1.6% from October 2022 to October 2023, trailing the 1.9% increase nationally over the same period.

California’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in October 2023, up 0.1 percentage-points from the previous month; the state’s unemployment rate remains elevated relative to the 3.9% rate in the United States overall. California continues to struggle with its labor supply, which fell by 11,100 in October, a decrease of 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. Since February 2020, the state’s labor force has fallen by 227,300 workers, a 1.2% decline.

Industry Profile  

• At the industry level, job gains were mixed. The Health Care sector led the way in October, expanding payrolls by 13,400, an increase of 0.75% on a month-over-month basis. With these gains, Health Care payrolls are now 9.7% above their pre-pandemic peak.
• Leisure and Hospitality was the next best performing sector, adding 5,100 jobs, a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. With these gains, Leisure and Hospitality payrolls are now 0.4%, or 7,400 jobs, above their pre-pandemic peak.
• Other sectors posting strong gains during the month were Construction (4,500 or 0.5%), Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (4,500 or 0.5%), Manufacturing (3,400 or 0.3%), Government (2,400 or 0.1%), Administrative Support (2,200 or 0.2%), Other Services (2,000 or 0.3%), and Retail Trade (1,900 or 0.1%).
• Payrolls decreased in a handful of sectors in October. Finance and Insurance saw the largest declines, with payrolls falling by 1,000, a drop of 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. Other sectors posting declines during the month were Education (-200) and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (-200).

Regional Profile

• Regionally, job gains were led by Southern California. Los Angeles (MD) saw the largest increase, with payrolls growing by 11,100 (0.2%) during the month. Orange County (4,000 or 0.2%), San Diego (4,000 or 0.3%), the Inland Empire (3,700 or 0.2%), Ventura (1,100 or 0.3%), and El Centro (200 or 0.3%) also saw their payrolls increase. Over the past year, Ventura (2.2%) has enjoyed the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Orange County (2.1%), El Centro (1.9%), San Diego (1.7%), Los Angeles (MD) (1.6%), and the Inland Empire (1.4%).
• In the Bay Area, growth was mixed. San Francisco (MD) (4,000 or 0.3%) experienced the largest increase during the month. Napa (700 or 1.0%) and Santa Rosa (400 or 0.2%) also saw payrolls expand. On the other hand, payrolls declined in Vallejo (-900 or -0.6%), the East Bay (-500 or -0.0%), and San Jose (-400 or -0.0%). Over the past 12 months, San Rafael (MD) (3.6%) has experienced the fastest job growth in the region, followed by Santa Rosa (3.1%), the East Bay (1.5%), San Francisco (MD) (1.3%), Vallejo (1.1%), San Jose (1.0%), and Napa (0.7%).
• In the Central Valley, Sacramento enjoyed the largest monthly increase, expanding payrolls by 3,200 (0.3%) positions in October. Payrolls in Modesto (2,200 or 1.2%), Fresno (2,000 or 0.5%), Bakersfield (1,600 or 0.5%), Merced (600 or 0.9%), Visalia (500 or 0.4%), Madera (200 or 0.5%), Chico (100 or 0.1%), Hanford (100 or 0.2%), and Yuba (100 or 0.2%) also expanded during the month. On the other hand, payrolls in Stockton (-400 or -0.1%) and Redding (-100 or -0.1%) fell. Over the past year, Yuba (3.2%) has seen the fastest growth, followed by Hanford (2.9%), Modesto (2.7%), Sacramento (2.1%), Visalia (1.8%), Fresno (1.6%), Bakersfield (1.5%), Chico (1.4%), Stockton (0.6%), Madera (0.0%), Redding (-1.4%), and Merced (-2.5%).
• On California’s Central Coast, Santa Cruz (500 or 0.5%) and Salinas (500 or 0.3%) added the largest number of jobs. San Luis Obispo (200 or 0.2%) and Santa Barbara (100 or 0.0%) also saw payrolls increase during the month. From October 2022 to October 2023, Salinas (4.4%) has added jobs at the fastest rate, followed by San Luis Obispo (3.8%), Santa Cruz (2.3%), and Santa Barbara (2.2%).